Forum Topics VN8 VN8 General Discussion
DrPete
Added 2 years ago

@Noddy74 I see you've dipped into Vonex. Would love to know your thoughts on the company. I've had a small holding for a year or so now. Mixed conviction due to highly competitive market and organic growth prospects only around 10%. But operating cash flow of $4.3m for first three quarters is solid for a company currently worth around $23m. Risk is that they have been on an acquisition drive, but with low share price and elevated debt there options for future acquisitions look limited or risky, and they have already diluted once this year. Recent insider purchases by CEO and Directors is comforting.

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Noddy74
Added 2 years ago

Hey @DrPete It's sounds we've got similar views on VN8. I've added them to my SM portfolio but not IRL - yet. For me it's purely a value play. I don't love the industry. I think the company is just ok but they have a pretty narrow moat and constantly need to replace churning customers. I also don't like that in the past they've been particularly promotional, to the extent they were updating the market multiple times a month when they hit a new user threshold. As you point out they also have debt. BUT their recent acquisitions and in particular the MNF Direct acquisition look like they're delivering.

They paid $30m for that acquisition alone and the company has an EV of $32m. So the market is saying they're basically worth the MNF acquisition and that's it. According to the market the business they IPO'd in 2018, the 2SG acquisition, the Nextel acquisition, the Voiteck acquisition and the recent announcement of the partnership with More are all worthless. I think the market is wrong. It is messy with all those acquisitions but I suspect the last two quarter's free cash generation approaching $2m/quarter is fairly representative of what this company will deliver once all the customers have been ported across to them and you get a period of normalisation. If that's right it would put their EV as 4x FCF. Even if they only generate $6m FCF (which was less than the FY21 EBITDA of the MNF Direct acquisition) they're less than 6x EV/FCF.

Having said that I'm chatting to someone much smarter than myself next week about them, so if you see me sheepishly take them out of my SM portfolio in the next few days you'll know why...

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