Forum Topics Free range capital?
PabloEskyBruh
Added 3 months ago

OK, so now the opposite. I’m trying to inject some more daily volatility into my Strawman portfolio to increase the number of sub-20% Anteris days I have to accumulate over coming days and weeks. I’m adding VBTC and Appen and losing my index ETFs. Anyone have any other suggestions?

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 2 months ago

Probably out of luck and a subdued share price (much less my over-engineering of my Strawman portfolio) I was able to pick up a few hundred more in SM on days where my Anteris holding dipped to 19% of my portfolio. I’m at about 22% now and I think I’ll struggle to get below that again now that I think the price will start going north of the IPO price of $6 USD. I’m removing my attempted volatility agitators now.

I’m going to keep the USD ETF for a little bit, although it is more than what I need to serve as a SM proxy to my now much smaller IRL US holdings (I sold them to buy more AVR IRL mostly on ASX, but also got some on NASDAQ when I panicked that the low prices wouldn’t outlast the settlement date - I was wrong of course). I’m keeping the ETF in SM on the off-chance a protracted rise of USD against AUD happens to coincide with a few down days for Anteris on both sides of the Pacific. Such an event could exaggerate an AVR sell-off on the ASX (through arbitrage between the exchanges) which could give me another 19% day or two. Short of the rest of my SM portfolio blowing up, I don’t think I will get another opportunity.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 3 years ago

I’ve found a solution of sorts that I’m happy with. Some Vanguard Australia Shares Index ETF (VAS - or effectively our benchmark) and some approximately equal cash. The plan is for it to operate as both diversification and a de facto hedge. It’s going to dampen my daily and weekly movements and also serve to remind me, and allow me, to keep looking for new opportunities.

Just something to be aware of for anyone in a similar position and pondering a similar approach to capital allocation: you will have to think of it as a bit like getting a haircut - you can cut more but you can’t uncut it. It can only grow back slowly. This is due to current (or at least, as far as I am aware still current) Strawman rules restricting buys into a position after the 20% mark. It makes it a bit of a one way lever to a point, which is also another reason to take it slowly and think about further sell-downs carefully.

Typically I didn’t think to take a before shot (other than my somewhat intense and contemplative selfie of course), but this is how things stand now:

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The overweight position had breached that 70% mark which, it turns out, is my threshold for action. Perhaps I wouldn’t have ridden Amazon shares from 20 cents to US $160 after all…As our Dear Leader, Lord Strawman, commands: “Know Thyself”.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 3 years ago

Strawfolk, I am mainlining some volatility atm. I’ve let my solitary winner go for a nice run and am seriously considering paring it back, locking in some gains, and just hugging the index for a bit. To do so would also be slightly more reflective of my IRL portfolio too. Thing is but, a big part of me just wants to see this baby keep flying Icarus-style. Nor have I lost any conviction in this company - quite the opposite in fact. This for me also enters some meta-cognitive bias territory: just because it is the most exciting way of doing things doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not also the most rationally efficient way to allocate capital in the short-term to achieve out-performance. How many thoughts can you have in your head about something and have it still make sense? Which one wins for you? Where do you drive to once you’ve backed up that truck? Cuba? You’d need a boat, of course, but you get my drift. I’m interested in your thoughts on this dilemma and any tips for riding a lack-of-diversification-wave…

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