Forum Topics PVL PVL PVL General Discussion Forum
TEPCapital
one year ago

Good to see @BkrDzn buying PVL on-market on behalf of Capital H, albeit only in small quantities. It is reassuring to see that Capital H remain positive about this one. I certainly am. 2023 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for PVL with the "expand horizons" strategy pillar (with discussion around a move into commercial advisory and funds management revenue) plus solid progress in the underlying portfolio with a recent ASX announcement confirming that NTA is rising... If we see a handful of the portfolio companies move through new priced rounds in 2023, we'll inch closer to the 20c+ options targets for management which expire end of Dec 2023. I hope the team hits it; they'll very much deserve the financial reward if they can make it happen (given the share price currently stands around 5-6c/share).

27

edgescape
one year ago

Thanks for the writeup.

I think it;s undervalued mainly because of sentiment. Also PVL reminds me of BLA (Blue Sky Asset Management) so I think there will be a few who will tread with caution on this.

Will have to do my own digging to check those valuations for all those companies but at this price it looks interesting. But I already have a handful with my current portfolio at the moment and accommodating this would mean letting something else go.

17

TEPCapital
one year ago

Gilmore Space, which I believe is Australia's current largest space company (Series C stage) is valued at circa $158—237m (Dealroom.co estimates Jun 2021). James Kruger is on record (at a Strawman meeting no less, 10/08/2022) stating he knows all of the Aussie space companies and believes Skykraft will accelerate the most in value. Thus I think we could comfortably see Skykraft valued at north of $200m in time (~13x from here). It won't happen overnight, but I'd also wager that the next funding round for Skykraft must be close given where they are at with progress, and the amount of time that has elapsed since their last raise, coupled with their recent job adverts to grow the team...


16

Dominator
one year ago

@TEPCapital Skykraft is a long way behind Aireon in terms of implementation of space-based ADS-B. Aireon is backed by some of the largest and innovative ANSPs (NavCanada, NATS) and satellite communications provider Iridium. Space-based ADS-B is already in use across the Atlantic to reduce the separation standards required. According to Wikipedia, Aireon already has relationships with the following ANSPs/countries providers: Nav Canada, UK NATS, ENAV, IAA, AAI, Naviair, Isavia, CAAS of Singapore, ATNS of South Africa, DC-ANSP, ASECNA, Seychelles (SCAA), COCESNA Honduras and PNG.

Given the competition has all the know-how and is already using the technology, how is Skykraft going to be able to compete on a ROI basis? It takes a lot of money to get satellites into space and maintain those connections, since Iridium is a major satellite comms provider, they could be using the satellites for multiple different purposes to reduce costs... If Aireon can sign up the FAA, in my view it would be game over for Skykraft as all of the world's major Oceanic ATM providers (in traffic volume terms) would be covered by them.

18

TEPCapital
one year ago

Hi @Dominator,

That's a really good question, appreciate your insights. :) I've also been investigating the competitive landscape for Skykraft and I agree with you that Aireon is the major player in the space. I posed your question to James Kruger (Executive Chairman of PVL) this morning and he has already diligently got back to me. Here's what he said:

"3 quick things;

1. There’s a few different “services” for Air Traffic Management (listed below) and our understanding is Aireon delivers position but not two-way voice 

  • Position
  • Communication for control
  • Communication for airline operational messaging


2. SkyKraft has lower cost and capex having designed satellites themselves with space-based ATM in mind. So they can deliver better performance on three key requirements for an Aireon alternative:

  • Comms as well as voice.
  • Better performance.
  • Lower cost.


3. Skykraft can be financially viable with a few Southern Hemisphere contracts (MoUs already in place)…but they have already open conversations with some of the big Nth hemisphere countries.  

The competitive landscape is always a key part of the risk. But (a) Skykraft is new, nimble, and smart. (b) these are big TAMs and not necessarily VHS v Beta winner takes all scenario and (c) there are more use cases in the Skykraft payload (there’s empty space for other devices on their payloads). Let’s see." 

19

TEPCapital
10 months ago

This was a big month for the Aussie Space Industry! Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Gilmour Space Technologies (which raised $61 million AUD in its Series C round at an est. ~$220M valuation back in 2021) at its Gold Coast factory to formally unveil the Eris Rocket, Australia’s first home-grown orbital launch vehicle. Additionally, Fleet Space Technologies announced a A$50M Series C while doubling its valuation to over $350M. Positive signs that momentum is building in the Aussie space scene. Looking forward to seeing Skykraft scale up and complete a Series A and Series B over the coming years.

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/fleet-space-more-than-doubles-valuation-with--50m-series-c.html

Adelaide-based space tech firm Fleet Space Technologies has closed a ‘heavily oversubscribed’ Series C funding round to raise $50 million, led by existing investor and Australian venture capital firm Blackbird.The Series C, which was also supported by Mike Cannon-Brookes’ venture capital vehicle Grok Ventures, Alumni Ventures and Hostplus, more than doubles the company’s valuation, now surpassing $350 million.According to Fleet Space, co-founded by CEO Flavia Tata Nardini and chief exploration officer Matt Pearson, the size of the latest raise was secured because the company exceeded growth milestones set out in its oversubscribed Series B round in 2021.The company’s continued growth since it was started in 2015 also attracted the likes of new investors TelstraSuper, Bondi Partners and Pavilion Capital to the latest raise.Fleet Space says the latest round follows the success of its satellite-based mineral exploration technology ExoSphere, which is currently in operation with more than 30 clients globally including Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), Barrick Gold Corporation, Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) and Gold Fields.“Since the launch of Exosphere, our groundbreaking product, we have achieved an impressive milestone of reaching $28 million in contracted revenues within a year, deploying customers in every continent of the world,” Tata Nardini said.

12
TEPCapital
2 years ago

A little quiet here at the moment, but interesting to note that PVL is currently trading below net asset value. PVL has circa $6m AUD cash on hand and an audited portfolio value of circa $3m AUD, for a total net asset value of circa $9m AUD. That compares with a market cap of circa $7.5m AUD at the moment. It is a very illiquid stock so I suspect this one may rebound hard towards 10c+/share once the macro volatility settles. Also worth noting that PVL has minimal quarterly cash burn given the team has elected to take performance shares in lieu of a cash salary; very smart move.

24