im not sure how things will play out for testing companies
in my shop we routinely test for respiratory viruses when anyone presents with an influenza like illness (ILI)
This is a waste of time in probably 90% of cases. Why? Because it doesn’t alter the management. If you follow the best scientific evidence only the unvaccinated or those with significant risk factors for severe disease would qualify for anti-COVID agents. And that’s not many people ie 10%.
For influenza the same holds true but the proof of efficacy for tamiflu is even weaker.
however
Public perception has been irrevocably changed by the pandemic public health messaging. It is extremely hard to convince the general public that testing is basically pointless in the majority of cases. It doesn’t matter if it’s flu COVID or any other respiratory virus, the advice and management is the same. (Go home, be miserable, take anti-inflaamatoriws, drink lots and let time and nature resolve the issue) But getting a successful (and speedy) conclusion to a consultation is now near impossible without a named diagnosis. GPs are expected to finish a consultation in 5-10 minutes. I’m not saying this is good medicine, just a statement of fact reflecting the real world situation
Given these behavioural incentives, I suspect that it will become the norm, if it isn’t already, that huge testing rates will continue. I don’t see this trend changing, so I suspect that though companies that stand to benefit from testing will see a bit of a reduction in volume from the lockdown induced frenzy of the last few years, but the ongoing quantum of testing will be many multiples of the pre-pandemic level.
How that pans out for individual companies I can’t say as I have not researched the merits of each testing specifics. But broadly: over the counter rapid antigen test will decline but lab based PCR tests will be resilient.
If I were to invest in this thesis I would definitely pick the providers of the latter. And also the pathology companies that are doing the testing.
I would also echo your sentiment of prevention being better than cure, seriously consider going back to mask wearing (new COVID variants evade immune responses that have been primed by previous vaccinations and having already had disease) and consider thinking about a risk budget to manage behaviour but still enjoying life!
im not sure how things will play out for testing companies
in my shop we routinely test for respiratory viruses when anyone presents with an influenza like illness (ILI)
This is a waste of time in probably 90% of cases. Why? Because it doesn’t alter the management. If you follow the best scientific evidence only the unvaccinated or those with significant risk factors for severe disease would qualify for anti-COVID agents. And that’s not many people ie 10%.
For influenza the same holds true but the proof of efficacy for tamiflu is even weaker.
however
Public perception has been irrevocably changed by the pandemic public health messaging. It is extremely hard to convince the general public that testing is basically pointless in the majority of cases. It doesn’t matter if it’s flu COVID or any other respiratory virus, the advice and management is the same. (Go home, be miserable, take anti-inflammatories, drink lots and let time and nature resolve the issue) But getting a successful (and speedy) conclusion to a consultation is now near impossible without a named diagnosis. GPs are expected to finish a consultation in 5-10 minutes. I’m not saying this is good medicine, just a statement of fact reflecting the real world situation
Given these behavioural incentives, I suspect that it will become the norm, if it isn’t already, that huge testing rates will continue. I don’t see this trend changing, so I suspect that those companies that stand to benefit from testing will see a bit of a reduction in volume from the lockdown induced frenzy of the last few years, but the ongoing quantum of testing will be many multiples of the pre-pandemic level.
How that pans out for individual companies I can’t say as I have not researched the merits of each testing specifics. But broadly: over the counter rapid antigen test will decline but lab based PCR tests will be resilient.
If I were to invest in this thesis I would definitely pick the providers of the latter. And also the pathology companies that are doing the testing.
I would also echo your sentiment of prevention being better than cure, seriously consider going back to mask wearing (new COVID variants evade immune responses that have been primed by previous vaccinations and having already had disease) and consider thinking about a risk budget to manage behaviour but still enjoying life!
edit: spelling