Study results.
good bits and bad bits: it looks like the main thrust of the study was to show that markers of disease (knee OA) would be modified by the intervention (the study drug). This did achieve statistical significance for a couple of markers.
It was also demonstrated that some imaging findings on MRI were significantly reduced.
the study was not designed or powered to demonstrate an improvement in clinical symptoms. And indeed they did not achieve statistical significance. But it was very close.
I think you can read into this whatever your bias wants you to read.
As with all of these drug development companies, it all boils down to the phase3 study. This will be expensive and is many years away. The additional risk is this essentially a single drug company; so the risk is massive.
The upside is also massive if they pull it off, but Ive been burnt too many times before - so not for me.
If you REALLY want to be an early investor(before definitive proof is available) I would suggest waiting until the phase 3 study is funded enrolled and nearly complete before entering. and even then accept that, at that point it is a binary outcome and you could basically lose everything.
Not Held. but really interested to see how it goes!
I’m an anaesthetist:
so arguably no particular expertise with this drug,
however, my bull case is a follows:
these points are the short summary of my bull case
@CanadianAussie by the way thanks for engaging! Appreciate it!!!
Hi @GazD
It might be easier to discuss questions in the forum. I'm far from an expert but will take a crack at your questions seeing as no one else has.
Q was the 10% uptick related or just the general sentiment on the market today?
A I'd suggest if there was no material news it's probably impossible to tell why buyers were willing to pay a higher price all of a sudden. Personally, I wouldn't value the company 10% more valuable based on this news but that's just me.
Q 2,000,000 shares were issued to Marc Polizzi the recently appointed CEO. They are staggered to come out of escrow in one year, two years and three years?
A Yes, this appears correct. PAR shares traded at a low of $0.98 at the time of the announcement and it appears these have been issued at $0.96 which seems reasonable.
Q If the outstanding shares are 230 million as listed on yahoo finance this equates to just under 1% of the market cap of the company... If this is in lieu of income then I'm in favour, after all they need to conserve cash until they get the phase 3 trial done and are able to partner up, get bought out or actually go into production/profitability...
A You might want to email investor relations and ask. If it's in lieu of income I'd be very happy with that as a shareholder. If it's not, I'd need to know what his salary is. However, considering it's <1>
I'm no longer a shareholder but if I were I wouldn't see this as significant news. A mild positive he holds some shares now but would be much happier seeing him buy on market.
As a doctor, I'd love to hear what you're excited about with Paradigm? Are you an orthopedic surgeon? As a physiotherapist I'm very skeptical of companies offering treatments to alleviate pain, as I'm sure you'd be aware pain can be quite subjective. Whether correct or not, I also believe a lot of knee (and back) pain is a result of the nocebo effect and resulting lifestyle choices; both of which do not require surgeries or medications to remedy.