Andrew ,

Thank you so much for organising this preso , and having a pretty open discussion with Phillippe Wolgen .

For the disclosure , I own a small CUV parcel in my RL portfolio .

A few bullet point since it's still fresh :

Positives :

1) CUV have a commercialised product on the market ;

2) Cashflow positive / no debt ;

3) Ahead of the competition ;

4) Niche market , and business model is based on a targeted approach ( I liked a comment about the sales force , essentially they are application specialists ) ;

5) Stable scientific workforce .

Negatives :

a) My impression is that the company ( MD specifically ) is not investor friendly , and the company consistently demonstrated a poor investor relationship . Having a great technology and positive cashflow doesn't necessarily translates into a good investment case .

I really didn't like the comment along the lines " investors are not happy when it was $35 , and not happy when it's $19 " . I didn't hear any statement from the MD how he plans to bring value to the s/h . he shareholder value . Furthermore , negative publicity around CUV's chairman Willem Blijdorp is a worrying sign ( regardless if it's true or not ) - at the end the board suppose to be a s/h watchdog :

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/dutch-court-rejects-investigation-into-clinuvel-chairman-20220414-p5adhi

b ) CUV is one of the top 10 shorted stocks on ASX , and the management have done nothing to reverse the cycle . As an example , David Williams and PNV initiated a share buyback , and it had a very positive effect ( combined with other factors ) on a s/p :

At the same time , PNV has much more inferior financials compared to CUV . Despite record profits , CUV's s/p is in a downtrend :

c) CUV banked nearly $20 million in 3 months , hence a buyback will show a value return to s/h , while also provide a financial benefits due to less shares on issue .

Indeed , IMHO Gaurav is right - CUV is a speculative buy . Alarmingly , it appears that s/h value is a low priority for the company , hence CUV is a " watch and see " case in a near term .

Management

I have followed CUV for quite a few years now, and one of my initial sticking points holding me back from investing was the OTT communication. As noted, they report quarterlies even though they are not required to, on top of this the chairman also releases a regular newsletter, which is a random commentary on macro ideas and any current topic. At one point there was also a focus on the short position that made me wary.  My initial reaction to the above was too much talking, where is the focus on the business, so I sat on the side lines. Overtime I have come to view these newsletters as neutral, a quirk of the chairman and an acceptance that CUV are following a road map that works for the business and in turn shareholders.

(Short position is 6.7% lower than its historical past but has been increasing over the past 12mths.)

OTC range.

I also had this on my radar as a distraction, as I was having trouble seeing how a cosmetic range fitted into the seriousness of the conditions Scenesse treats. Yesterday’s interview makes this clearer with the approach to target niche unserviced, (can I say unglamourous?) groups. No idea if it will work, but it appears there is a pathway to test and involve the groups identified.

Broker research

This company gets limited coverage and I agree it gets relegated to the too hard and too different basket. It’s share price moves with the broader bio tech sector despite its financials setting it apart from the bulk of unprofitable and unproven bio companies out there. Bioshares, paid subscription, have covered it for years with a buy rating.

Metrics 

Following is a simplistic table of some key metrics, data taken straight from my broker account so it may not be completely accurate. Importantly it shows the trend in EPS and lack of growth in shares on issue.

held RL

EDITED - as I incorrectly reported the broker estimates on marketscreener.com

Thanks @Strawman for putting $CUV on our radar screens. (I'd previously heard Gaurav Sodhi riff on it during Ausbiz The Call so I knew it would be interesting).

What I liked:

• Current financials and growth
• Broadly stable share count for last 5 years
• Science-based technology platform with a vision for broader application
• Good explanation of why the injectible administration of SCENESSE is superior and lower risk to other competitive routes of administration
• An explicit CEO succession timeline
• Continued quarterly 4C reporting

What I need to understand better:

• What are the competitor products. For example, if there is no patent current on the molecule, what is to stop a generic competitor creating another injectible. "Patent portfolio" is all well and good, but what does it mean
• Who are the competitors in development and what story are they telling
• Issues with Chairman and investor strikes on Rem Report

More research, but on the shortlist as a result of today.

Interesting that very few brokers are covering this (none on the FNArena database ... unusual given the market cap!). I think one of the analysts at Intelligent Investor is following $CUV very closely.

Marketscreen.com reports 4 Broker Valuations: Av Target $26.31 (Range $23.14 - $31.40). Note: today's close was $19.66.

Disc: Not held