Forum Topics Catching a Falling Knife
ArrowTrades
2 years ago

I sometimes follow the lead of fund managers I like into a stock, when that stock has a big decline, if that Manager (who knows the stock well) isn’t topping up their position then I usually take it as pretty negative signal. Even if they are continuing to hold, It might be because it’s difficult to sell their position due to size or liquidity plus they would suffer from sunk cost bias.

Another thought on catching a falling knife is that if it looks way to cheap on the numbers but is continuing to make new lows then by definition those selling it are being irrational… Sometimes it’s best not to try and stand in front of a mob of irrational sellers.  You will always get a chance to buy it once the dust and volatility settles. Sometimes that will be at a higher price sure, but sometimes lower. I suspect in the washout over a large sample it would be a net positive for both the bottom line and your metal health to wait rather than trying to catch the knife.

32

@ArrowTrades i agree with what you have said above, usually pays for waiting for mo to subside, ive been caught several times. a couple of q's. who are the managers u like? totally understand if u dont want to disclose. secondly how can u tell if they are topping up ? thanks

7

ArrowTrades
2 years ago

For managers I am just following publicly, it is only guess work. I just keep an eye out for their next update, live-wire, webinar, social media post etc. Usually if they are out there plugging something they will take questions on it.

When they are substantial holders they and required to disclose 1% moves (so in the case of a stock dropping If I haven't seen any notice after a reasonable period of time I can make some assumptions)


11