Forum Topics Alcidion bear case
Chagsy
Added 3 years ago

@Rocket6

Great post!

neatly summarises most of my concerns also. I have been a holder in the past but am not currently. The reasons for not holding, you have effectively outlined: valuation, cash flows and dilution.

now, for context: I work in the space and see a desperate need for their product. However I have no direct hands on experience with it and cannot comment on its utility.

From my background research it seems to be a pretty good product.

The other huge positive for this space is JUST HOW STICKY it is. We are still using dog crap software from 20 years ago. Occasionally we get a totally shitty upgrade to version 6.1 years ago. This is near universal in hospital EMRs No one wants to be the one that changes and stuffs everything up. So surely this plays to ALC strengths. (See post by @GazD Once they are in - they are in for …decades

The next reason this should be a slam dunk is that you just slot it on top of your existing Dogcrap 6.1 system. You don’t have to run the risk of losing confidential info transferring the sensitive data of Tony Abbot’s sex change from one EMR to another.

So far so fantastic. Great narrative, Dr Chagsy buys in with huge enthusiasm having drunk the Kool Ade !

it just doesn’t seem to have panned out that way though. These NHS contracts are with Micky Mouse NHS trusts. These trusts have likely been failing in their delivery of KPIs, had McKinsey pay them a visit (sorry @mikebrisy) and done some panic buying of a software solution that saves their ass. The same said managers have a tenancy of 2-3 years on average and won’t be around to see whether it works or not. Excuse rant!

For me to re-enter I would want to see them convert a couple of Big NHS trusts. Or similar in Oz

I remain hopeful that ALC is actually going to become a success but don’t see any rush to buy in until there is greater proof that they are closer to their goal.

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Chagsy
Added 3 years ago

Apologies. @seasoning not @GazD


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Chagsy
Added 3 years ago

Seems you are all over this @Seasoning

my memory of previous presentations from Kate is that the integration is actually quite difficult and lengthy. Maybe up to 2 years for each client to get the true benefits. And is also labour intensive - the integration that is. . I could be wrong on this point. So all the usual acronyms apply.

if so, this isn’t an easy click a button, add SaaS device, clip ticket, business. And should be valued as such.

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nerdag
Added 3 years ago

@Chagsy  "For me to re-enter I would want to see them convert a couple of Big NHS trusts. Or similar in Oz"

With NSW being comprised of 8 health districts and 2 specialist networks, all of whom run different EMRs (Cerner and Orion being the big two with smatterings of other EMRs for different disciplines mixed in) and the long awaited single statewide DHR announcement imminent, there is a reasonable chance that Alcidion's oroduct is going to be a part of transition, if not in full, but in part.

The big $$$ question is how much of a part.

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Chagsy
Added 3 years ago

Thanks for that. I’m pretty sure that there is more variability than this. Each integration has its own set of legacy solutions that need to be patched together. From memory, each time they do this it gets easier as the team becomes more familiar with the legacy systems, so it might become less and less of an issue.

I don’t want to sound too negative about ALC - it is very much on the watch list - just want to see it de-risk a little. Moving up the food chain would be one aspect of that de-risking.

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Rocket6
Added 3 years ago

@Seasoning, based on their staff expenses, I would suggest lots! The scaling -- or lack thereof -- is definitely a key concern for me. This year we obviously saw an uptick in revenue, basically all of which was offset by cost increases.

I agree with the assertion that if -- and I think it's still a big if -- they are able to succeed and win material contracts many times over, there is lots of blue sky for Alcidion once they are 'in'. Incredible pricing power, sticky software and an unwillingness to change in the healthcare system. But there is a lot of uncertainty in that assertion and obviously no clear guarantee it will eventuate.

@Chagsy it sounds like our main concern/criticism is more or less the same. That is why I made the point about thinking back to 2018/2019, and what investors back then would have forecasted for today. Surely that the business would be sustainably supporting its growth, or close to it, while seeing some signs of operating leverage? I think your comment about de-risking aligns with my current views. I think there are more attractive opportunities out there that aren't diluting at the rate of ALC; that don't have to endure the long and expensive onboarding process ALC does; and perhaps most importantly, are demonstrating scalability in their business model. Pointerra are a possible example of this (my opinion of course), although also aren't dirt cheap at the moment -- but will increasingly appear that way if they bring in a material defence contract. Cogstate is another one -- also trading around 5x p/s, like ALC, but the bang for buck is a much different proposition. With Cogstate, you are buying a business operating in an attractive area, but have also demonstrated scalability in their business model, are spitting out free cash flow and can pay their way. Like I said, a much different proposition. I know which one I would prefer.

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