Forum Topics Guangzhou lockdown
edgescape
2 years ago

Had a conversation on WeChat with my uncle in Guangzhou.

Looks like they are indeed in a hard lockdown due to rises in Covid cases.

In case you did not know, Guangzhou is a major industrial heartland where lots of stuff is made. Seen it first hand when I went to the markets and it is amazing the amount of tools, taps and other bits and pieces you can buy there to fix things up

Not surprised if we see a pullback from the rally last week that was partly driven by rumours about a review of China Covid restrictions. Hope I'm wrong but get prepared to do some "bargain hunting"

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mikebrisy
2 years ago

I’m interested to see how this plays out. From what I understand, China has quite low vaccination in the elderly population, less effective local vaccines, and a lower portion of the population who have some immunity as a result of prior infection. Not sure what the CCP exit strategy is.

Add to that, they’ve overbuilt apartments and infrastructure, and are now are even demolishing some. Plus so many buyer have lost heavy deposits on units that will never be built.

Not wishing to be political, but I also don’t see how current CCP policy is enabling the entrepreneurship that drives productivity and value creating innovation. On the contrary.

My personal strategy is stock picking innovators that don’t depend on the Chinese market or supply chain.

BTW Not a China expert.

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edgescape
2 years ago

Didn't expect commodities to rally.

CMM, CNB, NST, DVP, S32, FMG were by far my best performers. Even former darling CHN did well.

Maybe I got out of ALK too soon?

Only tech stocks that I hold did bad. Noticed ALU down more than 4% as well.

I think I could see why the copper and aluminum producers would do well when Guangzhou is in lockdown, but didn't expect gold miners to get a bid.

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