0012 GMT - It's time for BHP to invest in growth, Macquarie analysts reckon. "The current price dynamics, combined with BHP's assessment of megatrends, presents a great opportunity for counter-cyclical investment, in our view," the analysts say in a note. They expect the miner will target copper and nickel acquisitions, and highlight that prices for both have fallen sharply since their all-time highs earlier this year. Both commodities are now trading largely in line with Macquarie's long-term price forecasts, they add. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0006 GMT - BHP's focus on human capital is a big positive for the world's top miner, say Macquarie analysts, who reckon the company has a potential first-mover advantage via its FutureFit Academy program. "We argue that skills required to maintain an automated battery-power haul truck will be very different from skills required for a conventional diesel truck," the analysts say in a note. They reckon the scope of BHP's $300 million, five-year training program could also be later expanded. "BHP is replenishing its skilled labor supply" and "we view this as a key positive," the analysts say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2354 GMT - Abacus Property has significant exposure to self-storage and office, demand for which are particularly sensitive to changes in the macroeconomy, says Macquarie in a note. As a result, the bank cuts Abacus to neutral from outperform. "Although these portions of the portfolio have performed strongly over recent periods, we now see risks as skewed to the downside from a demand perspective," Macquarie says. Abacus's peers are already suggesting the occupancy has begun to moderate. "Therefore, while we remain positive on the longer-term thematic underpinning the self storage sector, we believe updates are likely to become incrementally softer as the cycle slows," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2305 GMT -- Morgan Stanley disputes the idea that Goodman's growing development workbook is entirely down to shifts in behavior by businesses during the pandemic. In a note, analyst Simon Chan points out that Goodman's development work in progress has expanded by 5.3 times since FY 2014. "The perception is that this is driven by a brought-forward of warehouse demand, as Covid got businesses reviewing their supply chains," Chan says. "We disagree. Goodman isn't doing a lot more work; it's just that what it is building has much higher valuation." MS retains an overweight call on Goodman's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com)
2304 GMT - Computershare's new margin income guidance potentially brings forward the uplift that the market was expecting in FY24, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrei Stadnik says in a note. Computershare now expects management EPS growth of 90% in FY23, up from a prior forecast for 55% growth. The new projection is 18% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast, and 22% better than consensus hopes. Margin income guidance is now US$800M, up from US$520M earlier. "Most of the uplift is from higher rates, but US$96 million is from rate recapture or portfolio efficiencies," Stadnik says. Morgan Stanley rates Computershare at overweight. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2301 GMT - Rubber-products maker Ansell's commentary at its annual shareholder meeting suggests risks to FY23 guidance remain ahead, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman says in a note. Ansell warned of recessionary risks in many markets, although industrial activity remains solid so far. The company also said end-users continue to destock less differentiated products, although there are signs that trends may be turning positive. "A few of Ansell's larger industrial and life science distributors in US and EU have begun to destock more differentiated product lines leading to reduced orders," says MS, which rates the stock a hold. Also, there is downside risk to FY23 revenues. "Given the uncertain outlook, we remain on the sidelines," Morgan Stanley says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2254 GMT - Commonwealth Bank of Australia probably won't buy back more shares in 2023, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard E. Wiles says in a note. CBA has so far bought back stock worth A$1.4B, and is likely to have wrapped the current A$2B program by the end of this year. MS expects the lender's CET1 capital ratio to be 11.3% at the end of 1Q of FY23. "We forecast a CET1 ratio of 11.5% (or 10.75% ex dividend) at 1H, and we hope that CBA will provide some indication as to the impact of APRA's new capital framework, which comes into effect in January 2023," Wiles says. "Management has stated that it expects to operate with a post-dividend CET1 ratio of more than 11.0% under the new framework." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2246 GMT - While mall owner Scentre didn't upgrade annual earnings guidance in its 3Q update, Morgan Stanley thinks a beat could be on the cards. Scentre reaffirmed expectations for funds from operations above A$0.19/security in 2022, and a distribution of at least A$0.15/security. "Consensus FFO for 2022 is 20.2 cents, and we're at 21 cents," analyst Simon Chan says. "Scentre's guidance looks conservative." Highlights of the update included comparable specialty sales growth of 15.6% in 3Q, versus the prepandemic period. That implies compound annual growth in productivity of around 4.9% over the past three years, Chan says. Also, the rent structure on new deals remains unchanged with Scentre confirm a bias of annual CPI+ reviews to the December half for existing leases. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2234 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises perhaps should have considered issuing equity now to buy out its JV partner in Germany, Domino's Pizza Group PLC, and give it firepower for potential acquisitions, Jefferies says. That's because Domino's Pizza Enterprises doesn't have much balance sheet headroom, with Jefferies forecasting leverage to peak at around 2.6 times in F2H 2023 versus a covenant of less than three times. "A further Ebitda reduction of circa 13% would imply a breach, which wouldn't be out of the question given the uncertainty created by the macro backdrop," analyst Michael Simotas says. "However, we are not particularly concerned." Domino's Pizza Enterprises could raise a small amount of equity given its A$5B market value, and doing so wouldn't be materially more expensive than debt, he says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2225 GMT - For Ansell, the fallout from the pandemic rampup in sales of exam and single-use gloves continues to reverberate. Volumes and prices of those gloves reached record levels during the pandemic, leading to higher output, capacity expansion and buildup of inventories. Now, though, demand is declining and end-users are deferring purchases. In a note, Jefferies analyst Vanessa Thomson says an unexpected headwind into the start of FY23 has been depressed glove orders from industrial and life-science consumers, rather than just healthcare. "This demonstrates the complexity of managing PPE post Covid-19 extremes," she says. Jefferies has a hold call on Ansell's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2222 GMT - Jefferies is now a bear on building materials supplier James Hardie as it worries worsening conditions will pressure the stock while the market waits on new CEO Aaron Erter to clarify the outlook for North American margins and profits. In a note, analyst Simon Thackray says James Hardie's guidance for medium-term Ebit margins in North America looks like a key catalyst for the stock, given a likely downtown in US residential construction. "We expect margins, management and costs fall under the microscope of the new CEO," Thackray says. "Deterioration of forward indicators will pressure elevated consensus estimates as we wait for FY 2024 underlying net profit guidance and North American Ebit margin expectations from the CEO." That guidance may not arrive until James Hardie reports its FY23 result in May, he adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2218 GMT - Australian mall owner Scentre's 3Q update was positive with strong sales, visitations and rent collection, Jefferies analyst Sholto Maconochie says in a note. "Leasing was strong, with 885 deals in 3Q (+79% versus prior corresponding period) at slightly improved leasing spreads with occupancy stable," he says. "Scentre maintained its FY 2022 guidance, which we expect it to beat." Scentre is likely to benefit from elevated CPI in FY23, although this will be partially offset by high debt costs. Jefferies thinks Scentre should consider selling stakes in some of its flagship assets to raise around A$5B. If proceeds are used to reduce gearing then that would help the stock to move higher, the bank says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires