0133 GMT - The focus of Incitec Pivot's FY 2022 result is its share buyback and strategic review of the Waggaman asset, which Jefferies analysts Richard Johnson and Nicholas Rawlinson say in a note will likely be well received by the market. The stock was recently 7.2% higher at A$4.01/share. Otherwise, the explosives and fertilizer maker's result was "underwhelming, even though the headline numbers are slightly higher than we were forecasting." The U.S. explosives business was particularly soft, they add. The outlook has "more than the normal number of moving parts in FY 2023 given the WALA review in particular and a number of headwinds have also been called out," they say, highlighting predicted charges to its Phosphate Hill and Moranbah assets in the company's outlook commentary. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0010 GMT - Elders' slower Ebitda growth in 2H of FY 2022 concerns Wilsons analysts, who continue to assume earnings decline through FY 2023 and FY 2024. They expect that livestock and real-estate earnings will decline in FY 2023 due to lower animal prices and a drop in property-market volumes. The Wilsons analysts tell clients in a note that they remain underweight on the stock following the Australian agribusiness's FY 2022 result, which also showed on-half margin contraction in retail products. Wilsons cuts the stock's target price by 21% to A$8.72. Shares are up 3.3% at A$10.55. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2359 GMT - The worst is likely over for United Malt now, although proof of this won't become clear until FY 2023 begins in earnest, says Jefferies. Reporting FY 2022 earnings today, United Malt scrapped its final dividend and Jefferies said annual cash flows had been very poor as expected. United Malt recently amended banking covenants and this month got an additional boost to its short-term financing flexibility. "The pathway to returning to covenants is credible though not without risk given volatile barley prices, still inadequate customer contracts (though this is getting better) and some demand/mix risk around recession," analyst John Campbell says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2359 GMT - Elders' fundamentals remain strong and its outlook cautiously optimistic, Goldman Sachs analysts say. The 23% share-price decline that followed Elders' announcement that Managing Director Mark Allison is retiring was unwarranted, they say in a note. The FY 2022 EBIT growth of 39% was near the top of Elders' 30%-40% guidance, and commentary on FY 2023 challenges didn't reflect any fundamental changes in the industry or Elders' operations, they say. However, the lack of an obvious successor to Allison does create some short-term uncertainty, they add. GS maintains a buy rating on the stock and cuts target price 12% to A$18.40. Shares are up 2.7% at A$10.49. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2339 GMT - Santos's final dividend could surprise investors when it reports FY 2022 earnings in February, Citi says. The investment bank now forecasts a 2H payout of 15 U.S. cents a share, comprising a 7-cent ordinary dividend and an 8-cent special dividend. That compares to a prior forecast of 7 cents and consensus expectations for a total 2H payout of 12 cents. "We previously indexed our dividends relative to Brent while awaiting clarification on the exact logic from Santos," analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. Now, Citi assumes the total dividend comprises two components: a base payout and an additional component when oil is above US$65/bbl. Still, it adds that Santos may favor buybacks over an enlarged dividend. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - Professional-information business growth will help margins at News Corp's Dow Jones unit expand more quickly than the market expects, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They caution that higher investment in 2Q FY 2023 will delay the realization of the margin expansion until 3Q. The Macquarie analysts point out that the 1Q decline in News Corp's book revenue should be transitory, but still trim group Ebitda forecasts for three years through FY 2025. However, an improved valuation for Australian property advertiser REA--which is 61% owned by News Corp--more than offsets the impact of the lower earnings forecasts. Macquarie stays neutral on News Corp shares and raises the target price 4.0% to A$26.00. Shares are up 1.8% at A$27.48. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2333 GMT - Despite the threat of a global recession, Morgan Stanley says a stock portfolio that is overweight Australian energy makes sense. Total oil inventories remain historically low, while China's post-Covid reopening could be an important offset to a slowing global economy, strategist Chris Nicol says in a note. Meanwhile, long-run oil price assumptions do not look demanding in the context of restricted supply, MS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2326 GMT - Morgan Stanley now expects Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index to end next year at 7200, compared to its current level of 7127. That's slightly higher than Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of 7150, laid out in its mid-year outlook in May. "Our 14.5x multiple assumption is broadly in line with long-run averages of 14.7x seen since 1992 and attaches to a view that downside risk to aggregate earnings levels persists," Morgan Stanley strategist Chris Nicol says in a note. A bear case, headlined by stubbornly high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening, points to an end-2023 level of 5900. However, a bull case of moderating inflation and stronger underlying growth suggests upside to 8100, MS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2305 GMT - The savage selloff that greeted Elders's announcement that its managing director will retire next year ignored the solid business that he will leave behind, Shaw & Partners analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the 23% share-price decline that followed the news looks overdone given that Mark Allison has built a business that can survive and thrive without him. The Shaw analysts acknowledge that the Australian agribusiness faces some uncertainty in demand due to recent heavy rainfall in some cropping regions, but only trim their near-term earnings forecasts by between 5% and 10%. Shaw cuts target price 21% to A$15.10 but maintains a buy rating on the stock, which last traded at A$10.21. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2258 GMT - ANZ expects the RBNZ will raise the official cash rate 75 basis points to 4.25% at its MPS Nov. 22. If there were to be a surprise, a 50bp hike is more likely than 100bp, says Sharon Zollner, economist at ANZ. On balance, local data since the August MPS has been firmly on the hawkish side of expectations. The RBNZ has already proven it isn't in the least afraid to go its own way, and the global tilt towards slower hikes is unlikely to play a significant part in the decision, she adds. ANZ is forecasting the OCR to peak at 5% after another 75bp hike in February. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2252 GMT - Research analysts at Macquarie say they aren't expecting specific annual guidance from Australia-based gaming and slots company Aristocrat when it reports its annual result on Wednesday. Still, Aristocrat bull Macquarie says the company is likely to provide some general statements that should indicate ongoing growth. The investment bank is hoping for an update on its launch of real-money online gaming in North America, which it says could give investors another upside in addition to the possibility of more M&A and share buybacks. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2154 GMT - Research analysts at Goldman Sachs say they are worried about costs and margins at Aussie travel agency Flight Centre, though they note the company's recent trading update flagged strong recovery momentum for travel overall. Goldman says the cost ramp up has been ahead of the recovery, especially for corporate, though the investment bank expects that to be a temporary setback. But in the longer term, Goldman says revenue margin recovery is a concern, given the structural move towards online, which is a weaker margin channel. Goldman maintains a neutral rating on the stock for now, with dividends expected to resume only from FY25. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0424 GMT - The negative share-price reaction to Australian banks' earnings was likely due to a strong sector performance in the lead-up rather than their quality, Citi analysts say. Looking across annual earnings from ANZ, NAB and Westpac, the Citi analysts see consistent forward commentary on interest rates, suggesting stronger net-interest margin leverage in 1H of FY 2023 before a more muted 2H contribution. Citi upgrades 1H margin expectations as a result but now see a more modest peak in 2H. Citi has a buy recommendation on Westpac and ANZ, and a neutral recommendation on NAB. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires