South32 Limited

ASX:S32

South32 Limited

ASX:S32
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Reports (3) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics S32 S32 Manganese Revenue
edgescape
one year ago

Can anyone explain the difference between the revenue for Manganese in South 32 Annual report versus the one I calculate?

5c4d1947c521e634676f6cc276271b481f65da.png

My calculation

=3372000*5.29*100*0.44

3372000 is the wet metric tonnes produced

5.29 is the US$dmtu (dry metric tonnes)

100 is the number of 10kg that make up one tonne since dmtu is measured in 10kg units

0.44 is the Manganese grade

However I get 784M USD and not 848M USD

5ffce7d28f91185a0de0c3c939505ea41bc710.png

Trying to do my own valuation of South32 biz, but this is getting confusing. As you see, I'm out by a factor of 8%

Update: Adding the notes at the bottom of the page:

d2c8819b9d7a69a35a66c218b5c0168c6f8691.png

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BkrDzn
one year ago

It's all in note 2.

Firstly in your calc, you forget the adjustment for external sales ratio.

Secondly, underlying revenue is a CIF basis whereas $5.29 is FOB.

So if you do your same maths but add in the 96% ext sale factor, then the difference should be close to the USD96m they specify as the FOB cost factor in note 2.

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edgescape
one year ago

Got it. Thanks.

But that cost will make it complicated to do the valuation.

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BkrDzn
one year ago

Yep. It adds another layer but quite a few companies do CIF basis so will be handy know how to model.

8
edgescape
one year ago

Just a thought, but could use the shipping price indexes as a base to model future costs.

Recent annual manganese production was about the same as previous year yet the cost did spike up from around 60m to 96m

Anyway it may be too much effort for me right now. I've got several different sheets in Excel to value each business. And Aluminium is most confusing since it is not a finite resource in the ground. Plus I'm not sure how much bauxite from Worsley and MRN is reserved for Hillside, Mozal and Alumar.

50bad1bee89f723fc15846794109f0b4e96bdc.png

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edgescape
one year ago

Found something on Aluminium smelters. Will use this as a starting point for what South32 currently have

http://www.twsservices.eu/pdf/Project_Economics_Sensitivity_Analysis-published_version.pdf?refresh

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