0345 GMT - NAB is likely to report that there's still no sign of credit quality deterioration when it issues its 1Q FY 2023 trading update on February 16, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They tip credit quality to remain sound and collective provisioning to remain healthy at 1.30% of credit risk weighted assets. "It's likely that arrears are edging up, but we would be surprised if there was a meaningful move in total non-performing loans," MS says, adding that its 1Q impairment charge of A$190 million equates to a loss rate of 11 basis points. NAB also looks to have healthy capital, MS says, forecasting a CET1 ratio of 11.3% at 1Q, rising to 11.6% at 1H FY 2023.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0332 GMT - National Australia Bank's 1Q FY23 is likely to be marked by solid volume growth and higher margins, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note ahead of the Australian lender's upcoming trading update. The investment bank forecasts cash profit to increase 8% on 2H FY22's quarterly average to A$1.95 billion, with 14% pre-provision profit growth driven by 9% revenue growth and 2% expense growth. Still, MS expects loan growth will likely slow, reflecting management's mortgage pricing strategy and a moderation of business loan growth. At the same time, MS expects the group margin to be up strongly, by 12 basis points from 1.67% in 2H FY22. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0315 GMT - IAG pre-released its 1H FY 2023 results which detailed a reduction in reported margin guidance, which Macquarie analysts say was unsurprising, after the recent NZ floods. The analysts are focused on underlying margin volatility as reinsurance becomes more difficult to place while changes in premium rates increase at the fastest level in decades, they say in a note. Capital will also be a focus as most investors expect further capital returns related to release of business interruption reserves, they add. The investment bank maintains an outperform rating on the stock, as "even on our below-consensus forecasts, we still believe the stock remains cheap."(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0140 GMT - Magellan Financial Group's February outflows of A$0.5 billion suggest the worst may be over for the Australian fund manager, Macquarie analysts say in a note. The company this week issued its February funds-under-management update, and Macquarie expects some seasonal factors at play, given less movement in January, the investment bank estimates there is around A$7billion-A$8 billion of Global Equities Institutional FUM remaining. "Therefore, we think it is likely Magellan has seen the worst of their outflows in dollar-value terms." Macquarie forecasts 2H outflows of A$4.7 billion compared with -A$14.9 billion in 1H and -A$49.4 billion in FY 2022. The bank maintains its neutral call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0130 GMT - It may make sense for smaller Australian banks and non-banks to consider mergers as they grapple with competitive disadvantages, say Morgan Stanley analysts in their comments on media reports that Bank of Queensland and Bendigo may be in early merger talks. Both banks haven't commented and MS says it has no knowledge of the merger talks, but notes that potential talks between the regional lenders could be opportunistic amid BOQ's recent leadership changes. Bendigo would likely be unwilling to pay a material takeover premium to BOQ given its heightened focus on returns and it's not clear why a no or low premium merger would be appealing to BOQ, it says. However, MS adds it's unlikely a potential merger will raise competition concerns and be blocked by regulators.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - Commentary around the performance of Macquarie's divisions in its 3Q FY 2023 trading update reads well, UBS analysts say in a note. The investment bank highlights Macquarie's diversification, with a notable strong performance in its Commodities and Global Markets business. With the Australian financial services company's share price up around 14% in the year to date, UBS reckons that the market is pricing in the likelihood of an improved performance from the more market-sensitive Macquarie Asset Management and Macquarie Capital divisions in FY 2024 on the back of recovering asset prices. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0058 GMT - Macquarie's 3Q FY 2023 trading update was better than anticipated with its Commodities and Global Markets business the standout, say UBS analysts in a note. The Australian financial services business reported that its net profit for the nine months through December was slightly higher than a year ago. "Based on limited commentary and detail, the commodities contribution (as expected) was a significant driver of this above consensus result with guidance reaffirming the expected delivery of a strong Q4 FY 2023 number," UBS says adding that this is an overall better result relative to Visible Alpha consensus, which has FY 2023 earnings down 6% versus UBS's estimate of -1%.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0028 GMT - Jefferies downgrades outdoor advertising group oOh!media to hold from buy amid worries about the rising risk of a recession in Australia. House prices are falling and a wave of fixed-rate home loans are maturing this year, which will squeeze household finances, analyst John Campbell says in a note. Meanwhile, the RBA is likely to raise interest rates by another 60 bps in the current tightening cycle, he says. "This adds up to more short-term macro pain, suggesting ad spend risk is skewed to the downside having outperformed expectations in 2022," Campbell says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0025 GMT - Transurban's upgraded distribution guidance highlights management's confidence that operating performance of its toll roads will improve in 2H, Jefferies analyst Anthony Moulder says in a note. Transurban now expects a A$0.57/share annual distribution, up from prior guidance for A$0.53/share. "With strong truck traffic continuing, coupled with inflation linked tolling increases, the higher distribution guidance will be taken well," Moulder says. However, good news on the payout was mixed with the planned departure of CEO Scott Charlton after nearly 11 years. Moulder says the CEO's exit is unsettling, but sees "the business as well positioned to continue to deliver growth in the years to come as new projects are completed and traffic fully recovers back to pre-Covid levels." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0017 GMT - Healius's unaudited 1H results look like a big miss on market forecasts, RBC analyst Craig Wong-Pan says in a note. The healthcare company reported 1H Ebitda of A$182 million, below consensus expectations for A$196 million, with EBIT and revenue also falling short. "No guidance has been provided for FY 2023 but management expects a materially stronger 2H," RBC says. "However we expect consensus to remain cautious on the 2H23 outlook given the miss to both revenue and earnings in the 1H." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0013 GMT - Transurban's upgraded distribution guidance for FY 2023 is well ahead of RBC's bullish expectations. Transurban had previously signaled an annual payout of A$0.53/share and reaffirmed that outlook as recently as December. On Tuesday, the Australian toll road owner said it now expects to pay out A$0.57/share, including 2-3 cents a share of capital releases. That's a strong outcome, says RBC analyst Owen Birrell, who had previously tipped a A$0.54/share distribution. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0008 GMT - Transurban's sale of a 50% stake in the A25 toll road in Canada to investor group CDPQ for C$355 million sends a bearish signal on pricing of the asset, Citi says. While the price is in line with Transurban's book value and 2% higher than Citi's discounted cash-flow valuation, it is at a lower multiple than when Transurban acquired the A25 highway in 2018. In a note, Citi says the deal with CDPQ represents a multiple of 17X FY 2022 enterprise value-to-Ebitda. In contrast, Transurban paid C$840 million to acquire 100% of the asset in 2018, or 26X FY 2017 Ebitda. "Pricing seems to have deteriorated, potentially reflecting a 5-year reduction in remaining concession life since the acquisition [concession ends in 2042] and higher interest rates," says Citi. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1530 GMT - Gold miner Newmont's roughly $17B offer to acquire Australia's Newcrest Mining won't be challenged by one of its biggest competitors. Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick Gold, says on the sidelines of an industry conference in Cape Town, South Africa that he wouldn't make a rival bid for Newcrest. "The market is starting to suffer from its lack of investment in its own future," he says. "The logic [of the deal] doesn't seem to fit too well." The gold industry has been struggling in recent years to make large new discoveries of the precious metal. (alexandra.wexler@wsj.com)

0847 GMT - Webuild's acquisition of Clough assets could contribute more than EUR600 million in additional revenue in 2023, Equita Sim analyst Emanuele Gallazzi says in a research note. The purchase last week should also help the Italian construction company to achieve a mid-to-high single-digit Ebitda margin, the analyst says. The EUR23.4 million acquisition added more than EUR4 billion in backlogged projects, bringing its total in Australia to more than EUR12 billion. It means that Australia becomes the company's second largest market. (pierre.bertrand@wsj.com)

0801 GMT - Newmont's all-stock takeover proposal for Newcrest makes sense, but the ratio as it stands doesn't look fair given Newcrest's low-cost and long-life assets, according to Allan Gray Australia's chief investment officer, Simon Mawhinney, who says he'd be surprised if the deal went ahead as proposed. "It must be the case that Newmont thinks that, at the current offer, they are buying something cheap, and I commend them for that," Mawhinney tells WSJ. "But there is a lot of water to go under this bridge." Allan Gray and its sister company Orbis owned a combined 7.4% of Newcrest's stock at the end of December, according to Newcrest's quarterly report. Mawhinney didn't disclose what he would view as a fair offer for the gold stock. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires