Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 21 Feb 2023 15:00:02
Jimmy
one year ago

0229 GMT - Entering the earnings season, Jefferies expected miners to report a margin squeeze because of softer prices and continued cost inflation, says analyst Christopher LaFemina. "This was the case for BHP and will likely be the case for Rio and Anglo, both of which report this week," he says in a note. "However, we must keep in mind that earnings are obviously backward looking, and there have been significant changes to the macro environment in recent months," LaFemina adds. China is reopening, U.S. inflation is cooling and Europe has avoided an energy crisis this winter, he says. For BHP, that points to a strong 2H and an even stronger FY 2024, says LaFemina, who reckons the 1H result BHP reported Tuesday will prove an earnings trough. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0215 GMT - Altium's 1H result and outlook suggest the printed-circuitboard software provider is winning market share and outpacing its peers, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. They think that Altium's valuation at 13 times 12-month forward sales is inexpensive compared with global designer peers on a growth-adjusted basis. 1H revenue growth of 22% on a constant-currency basis supports a view that the stock could justify a higher multiple, they say. MS maintains an overweight rating on the stock and lifts target price by 14% to A$43.50, rolling forward its valuation. The stock is down by 5.75% at A$37.70. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0127 GMT - Seek's underlying earnings margins at its Australia and New Zealand business suggest a level of reinvestment that continues to surprise UBS analysts. The analysts tell clients in a note that the contraction in 1H underlying earnings margins to 65% from 66.5% a year earlier suggests further reinvestment. The unit's A$276 million in 1H Ebitda fell short of UBS's A$305 million forecast. UBS has a last-published buy rating and A$27.80 target price on the stock, which is down 1.3% at A$24.00. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2357 GMT - BHP's decision to seek a buyer for the Daunia and Blackwater mines it owns with Mitsubishi suggests those assets are "unlikely to meet capital allocation hurdles at BHP," RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. While costs at those operations are similar to the joint venture's other mines, they have lower coal quality and require growth capex, the analysts say. Those mines, which the JV wants to offload via trade sale, account for roughly 24% of the JV's output, say the analysts. BHP says its strategy is to focus on the highest quality metallurgical coals, used in steelmaking. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2350 GMT - Investors had low expectations for GPT's office division ahead of its FY22 result and this was justified, UBS analyst Grant McCasker says in a note. Occupancy fell 4%, while GPT absorbed a A$322 million devaluation to its office portfolio in 2H. GPT is targeting occupancy above 90% by the end of this year, and UBS says it expects to see an improvement within six months, In that sense, GPT will soon be past the trough. UBS retains a buy call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2347 GMT - Ampol's dividend payout of 70% of underlying profit looks sustainable to UBS analyst Tom Allen. While UBS doesn't think Ampol will repeat a special dividend unless it generates surplus cash, such as by selling assets, it expects the refiner's net debt-to-Ebitda can remain below a target of 2.0-2.5 times. "On our current outlook, we believe a 70% payout can be sustained despite expecting refining margins normalize (to US$10/bbl by FY 2024), which could help Ampol accelerate the release of A$686 million franking credits to shareholders," UBS says in a note. The bank says a higher payout ratio and earnings growth in Ampol's Fuels and Infrastructure division and Convenience Retail business can provide investors with a 6% dividend yield over the next 3 years. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2342 GMT - BHP's 1H profit result "was surprisingly poor," say analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who had tipped higher earnings, dividend and cash flow, and lower net debt. It "is a strong indicator of what is a still challenging inflationary environment for the miners," the analysts say in a note. While red-hot inflation should cool in 2H, BHP is likely to face a big hurdle in meeting FY cost guidance, they say. "This said, the lack of guidance changes probably limits the consensus earnings downgrades at this stage to the weak first-half results," say the analysts. BHP is down 2.0% at A$47.51/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2338 GMT - Monadelphous's 1H result had something for both bulls and bears. The engineering contractor's net profit of A$29 million was a beat, as was Ebitda of A$58.2 million. However, Jefferies analyst Nicholas Rawlinson notes that Monadelphous's FY 2023 revenue guidance of a 5%-10% fall year-over-year is softer than consensus expectations for a flat outcome. "Consensus implies 15% year-over-year revenue growth in 2H but guidance indicates 2H will be down 10% to flat," says Jefferies. "The market, however, may be buoyed by the positive Ebitda margin surprise, management's track record of guiding conservatively, as well as the upbeat outlook commentary looking to FY 2024." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2335 GMT - Altium's weaker 1H subscriber growth suggests to Goldman Sachs analysts that the printed-circuitboard software provider may only reach 75,000 subscribers by fiscal 2026. Altium has said it aspires to have 100,000 subscribers by then. Nonetheless, the GS analysts say in a note to clients that Altium's greater cost control drives minor improvements to their Ebitda forecasts. They remain neutral on the stock and maintain a A$42.00 target price. Shares are down by 5.5% at A$37.80. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2333 GMT - The odds still favor Charter Hall beating its annual earnings guidance, although headwinds are stiffening, suggests Jefferies. Charter Hall maintained a forecast for operating EPS of at least 90 Australian cents, which would represent growth of 6%. "We still expect Charter Hall to beat guidance," analyst Sholto Maconochie says in a note. The bank is forecasting operating EPS of 92.3 Australian cents in FY23. "However, the next 6-12 months may be harder due to moderation in transactional activity and lower revals, with increased redemptions and lower net equity inflows," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2333 GMT - Stockland needs a 2H acceleration to meet a revised target of around 5,500 residential lot settlements in FY 2023. In a note, Jefferies analyst Sholto Maconochie says Stockland needs a 62% skew in favor of 2H to meet its new annual goal, which replaced earlier guidance for around 6,000 lot settlements. Ahead of Stockland's 1H result, Jefferies had expected 5,842 annual settlements while consensus was for 5,941. Stockland is down 4.9% at A$3.70. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2319 GMT - Iress looks set to use its April investor day to update its medium-term targets, which have always looked optimistic to Macquarie's analysts. They tell clients that the Australia-listed software provider will provide more detailed FY 2023 guidance and could also identify opportunities to divest sub-scale and underperforming assets. Iress's FY 2022 net profit and segment profit were both at the bottom end of revised guidance, the analysts say in a note. They cut EPS forecasts on lower revenue and margin forecasts, coupled with higher interest expenses. Macquarie stays neutral on the stock and cuts its target price by 25% to A$9.30/share. Shares are down 1.2% at A$8.985. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2317 GMT - Hub24's 1H results will likely well-received overall by the market, as headline figures are ahead of consensus, UBS analysts say in an initial review. The investment bank notes statutory net profit, revenue, and the interim dividend were all better than consensus and its own forecasts. Still, while there was very strong revenue growth at group level, it was matched by very high cost growth, which UBS thinks may be scrutinized by investors. The stock is up 3.7% to A$28.01/share in early trading. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2307 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's 1H net interest margin outperformed Goldman Sachs's expectations, but it looks like it came at the expense of volume momentum, say analysts Andrew Lyons and John Li in a note. They believe the Australian regional lender will need to invest more in price to engineer a turnaround. At the same time, GS notes Bendigo yesterday flagged intense industry-wide competition in lending and deposits, which is potentially a NIM headwind. The banks walked away from its previous 2H NIM guidance. GS stays neutral on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2305 GMT - Altium's focus on value over volume of customers should lift the printed-circuitboard software provider's margins, which could also benefit from increased automation of sales, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the primary driver of Altium's better-than-expected 1H Ebitda margin was a decline in sales and marketing costs. They cut their forecasts for these costs over the medium term, raising their Ebitda margin expectations for the period as a result. Subscriber growth could also get a near-term boost from China's relaxation of Covid-related restrictions, they add. Macquarie stays neutral on the stock and lifts its target price 27% to A$40.00. Shares are down 4.7% at A$38.12. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2218 GMT - If Link is able to successfully execute a sale of its Link Fund Solutions unit to Dublin-based Waystone Group, as well as finalizing negotiations with Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, it could be significantly positive for the stock, say Citi analysts in a note. "In particular, it would likely remove the near term risk of a capital raising and a source of key uncertainty and risk for the stock,"the investment bank adds. Still, with no signed deals and no clear terms, Citi reckons the market may be reluctant to give Link the benefit of the doubt, given the recent track record of Link's failed deals. Ahead of Link's 1H result this week, Citi maintains a neutral call with no change to its A$2.00/share target price. Link closed up 2.4% to A$2.14/share yesterday. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2203 GMT - NIB's travel unit had its strongest half ever in 1H, which implies the post-pandemic recovery is progressing well, Citi analysts say. In a note they say that ongoing strong recovery should continue in both the travel division and NIB's international inbound health insurance business, which provides health insurance to international students and workers. In an analysis of the Australian health insurer's 1H results handed down yesterday, Citi notes that IIHI returned to policyholder growth, alongside a significant turnaround in underlying operating profit. Citi views the sell-off post the result yesterday as overdone and raises its call to buy from neutral. NIB closed yesterday down almost 12% at A$7.02. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2156 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's decision to slow home loan volume growth to manage the volume/margin trade-off in 1H looks rational, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank acknowledges that optically this creates some pain in a flat/slightly negative book, but ultimately the benefits to net interest margin are more valuable than the volume, they say. "We think management should stay the course in the near term," says Citi, which now forecasts the Australian regional lender's NIM won't peak until 2H FY 2023, suggesting consensus upgrades. Still, Citi stays neutral on the stock thinking that much of the value has been captured in the rally post Bendigo's December trading update when they say strong leverage to rates was first evident. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0358 GMT - Telstra could consider selling the recurring receipts from the Australian government-owned National Broadband Network rather than the whole of its fixed infrastructure business, Morgan Stanley analysts say. The fixed infrastructure business is made up of high-quality, cash-generating assets with a positive structural outlook, they tell clients in a note. They reckon it could make more sense to monetize some or all of the receipts that Telstra receives under the 2011 deal for the NBN to rent infrastructure and pay for the migration of customers to the government-owned network. They value the receipts at A$13 billion to A$23 billion on a discounted cashflow basis. MS has a last-published overweight recommendation and A$4.75 target price on the stock, which is unchanged at A$4.21. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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