Forum Topics Monthly Momentum & Trends
Rapstar
2 years ago

Momo & Trend Metrics

I am monitoring monthly trends & momentum across various asset classes, given momentum and trends can provide a gauge on market direction & sentiment. Of course, reversals occur, but trends and momentum is a signal that has proven to be an effective tool in asset allocation. I am tracking the following assets:

  • S & P 500
  • ASX accumulated index.
  • World small cap ex. US ETF
  • Long dated US bonds (TLT ETF)
  • Gold in $AUD

The highest trailing returns asset over the 1, 3, & 6 month timeframe has been Gold.

The highest trailing returns asset over the 12 month timeframe has been ASX Accumulated index.

Gold and ASX accumulated index were the only asset classes with a positive return over the past 12 months.

The worst trailing returns over 1, 6, & 12 month timeframe has been long dated US bonds. Long duration growth stocks tend to be highly correlated to long duration bonds, and goes part of the way why some of the growth darlings have come back to earth over the past 12 months. The strong downward momentum in TLT does not bode well for these long duration equities.



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Rapstar
one year ago

I am monitoring monthly trends & momentum across various asset classes, given momentum and trends can provide a gauge on market direction & sentiment. Of course, reversals occur, but trends and momentum are signals that have proven to be an effective tool in asset allocation. I am tracking the following assets:

  • S & P 500
  • ASX accumulated index.
  • World small cap ex. US ETF
  • Long dated US bonds (TLT ETF)
  • Gold in $AUD


The highest trailing returns asset over the 1, & 3, & 12 month timeframe has been Gold. Gold is up 9.4% in AUD over the past month.

The ASX accumulated index was the worst performer over the 1, & 3 month periods.

Long bonds was the only asset classes with a negative return over the past 12 months. However, Long bonds was the second best performer over the 3 and 6 month timeframe.

Gold momentum remains healthy, and the reversal in long bond momentum is notable.

I'll add Bitcoin next month.....



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