0217 GMT - Netwealth's disappointing 3Q FY 2023 flows can reasonably be attributed to global market volatility in recent months rather than a deterioration in the Australian specialist wealth platform's asset gathering franchise, says UBS analyst Scott Russell in a note. The investment bank notes that client numbers continued to rise during 3Q, indicating that outflows are primarily partial withdrawals rather than account closures or adviser departures. "We remain optimistic about the future flows contribution from new advisers; 21% of Netwealth advisers joined in the past three years," UBS says.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0156 GMT - IAG looks set to benefit from strong pricing for motor insurance in Australia, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. According to the investment bank's new business survey, pricing increased 26% year-on-year in the March quarter, and is at its strongest in a decade. MS reckons this will help IAG improve its 2H FY 2023 margins and address inflation. Even so, the investment bank adds that the insurance company's motor pricing increases are modestly lagging behind those of its rivals and so its market share could be in focus.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0143 GMT - The tailwinds which drove Australia's major banks' earnings per share upgrade cycle during 2022 look to have run their course, says Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. This view comes after the lenders underperformed the ASX200 for the third month in succession in March, and MS reckons that it is now more likely that the major banks will underperform the ASX200 this year. The investment bank notes that the average major bank total shareholder return of -5.2% in March was weaker than the ASX200's broadly flat performance. CBA was the best performing major, while NAB was the worst. The smaller banks, Bendigo, Bank of Queensland and Judo, also underperformed.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0133 GMT - Australian general insurers IAG and Suncorp are losing market share in personal lines to challenger brands and mutuals, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. In a review of regulator data, MS says large incumbents led by IAG and Suncorp have lost the most market share over the past four years, which highlights the need to improve their operational and strategic performance in the medium term, as well as manage earnings volatility and climate change. Challenger brands have grown more profitably, says MS, while QBE and global commercial players are also picking up market share. Chubb has been the biggest winner over the four-year period, increasing its market share by 0.6% while maintaining an average combined ratio of less than 90%, the investment bank says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0115 GMT - Australian specialist wealth platform company Hub24 is likely to have a weak 3Q FY 2023, but could outperform rival Netwealth, say Citi analysts in a note. For 3Q, Netwealth's net flows of A$1.7 billion, its weakest underlying flows since September 2020, they note. Citi lowers its net flows forecasts for Hub24's 2H FY 2023 by 6% to A$10.1 billion, which assumes 3Q flows of A$2.3 billion (down 17% quarter-over-quarter), and 4Q flows of A$3 billion (in-line with Netwealth). Citi sees potential for Hub24 to lower its FY 2024 funds under management guidance of A$80 billion-A$89 billion towards the lower-end of the range. It stays neutral on Hub24.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0106 GMT - Sonic Healthcare's A$310 million acquisition of German pathology lab operator Diagnosticum is in line with the Australian company's long-term strategy of deploying capital through acquisitions, Citi analysts say. They count more than 40 acquisitions since FY07. The A$105 million in FY24 revenue that Diagnosticum is expected to generate is equivalent to 1.3% of the group's total forecast by Citi. The analysts tell clients in a note that Sonic sees room for further industry consolidation in Germany, with the top five players only accounting for about 40%-50% of the market. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$36.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.9% at A$35.77. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)
0051 GMT - Australian wealth platform company Netwealth's 3Q FY23 update fuels debate on whether the sector has hit peak flows, say Citi analysts in a note. They also question whether the structural shift towards specialist platforms, of which Netwealth is one, is over as financial adviser movements across the industry slow. "We see weak flows as largely a reflection of ongoing market volatility and uncertain macro environment," says Citi. For 3Q, Netwealth's net flows of A$1.7 billion were the weakest underlying flows since September 2020, the investment bank notes, staying neutral on the stock. Citi says it prefers rival Hub24 over Netwealth, partly as it continues to outperform the latter in terms of flows.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
2246 GMT - While 3Q of the fiscal year is typically a low point for Australia's investment platform companies, Netwealth saw its lowest level of net inflows over the last 11 quarters, say Jefferies analysts Simon Fitzgerald and William Richardson in a note. Netwealth on Monday issued an update for 3Q FY 2023, which showed net inflows of A$1.65 billion. Jefferies notes that the 3Q result is a long way off the company's peak in net inflows of A$4.03 billion (1Q FY 2022) and the average over the last 11 quarters of A$2.7 billion. Jefferies reckons a larger win is likely needed in the final quarter of FY 2023, with the midpoint of the guidance range requiring A$3.3 billion in net inflows for 4Q FY 2023. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0618 GMT - Australia's major banks are well positioned to weather growing funding and economic risks, says Moody's Investors Service in a report. It says that funding conditions are likely to become more volatile due to spillover effects from stress at overseas banks, and tightening monetary policy should slow the country's economic growth, but the major lenders have ample liquidity and will maintain good access to funding markets. "The banks' asset quality will also remain strong, though with modest deterioration, supported by a tight labour market and prudent risk management," says Moody's. "Rising rates will support banks' profitability but also raise funding costs and dampen loan growth." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0600 GMT - China's relatively slow recovery from a very weak 2022 shouldn't surprise the market and isn't at odds with a bullish view on miners, Jefferies analysts say. "One main point of pushback against our positive call on the mining sector is that the China demand recovery has been 'disappointing'," the analysts say in a note. But a gradual return to activity was expected and key indicators including credit growth and mortgages are trending higher, they say. "We continue to expect significant improvements in Chinese demand as the year progresses," they add. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0530 GMT - First Quantum's purchase of a majority stake in Rio Tinto's La Granja copper project in Peru gives the Canadian miner more options in case its Taca Taca project in Argentina is stalled by fiscal conditions or other challenges, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. It's early days at La Granja, where a construction decision is likely at least five years away, says Ravi. But "we are happy to see FM partnering up on a major project following the experience in Panama (and Rio's willingness to have FM as operator is an endorsement of their capabilities)," he says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires