0117 GMT - Asset manager GQG Partners' stock seems undervalued given its strong organic momentum, UBS analysts say in a note. They say that since its IPO, GQG's funds under management have grown to a record A$141 billion, which is at odds with its share-price performance. UBS says that net inflows during the March quarter of US$5 billion may be a sign of institutional flow recovery. "While March is a seasonally stronger quarter, flows are nevertheless beating expectations," says UBS. It has a buy rating on the stock with a A$2.20 target. GQG is up 0.7% at A$1.41. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0059 GMT - The latest survey of Australian consumers by UBS suggests they will keep spending despite pressure on budgets. "Previous survey results through 2022 proved correct in showing the Australian consumer would keep 'spending to the cliff', despite facing a record rise in interest payments and cost of living pressures," strategist Richard Schellbach says in a note. UBS says Australian consumers surveyed in 1Q still expect spending growth to remain quite strong over the next 12 months. However, optimism is starting to fade, with lower income earners noticeably more negative than high-income groups, UBS says. Household savings will be used to support consumption, it adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0057 GMT - Even though Platinum's investment performance track record has improved over a one-year horizon, this doesn't seem to be translating into improved net flows, UBS analyst Shreyas Patel says in a note. He notes that the Australian fund manager recorded elevated net outflows of A$223 million during March, which equates to an annualized "bleed rate" of 14.5% of funds under management. It is also likely that Platinum will experience further outflows in April, as it has flagged an institutional redemption of US$141 million from its Platinum World Portfolio-Asia Fund. UBS has a sell rating on the stock, which was recently down 2.4% at A$1.72. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0053 GMT - Evolution Mining's downgraded FY 2023 production guidance is not only a blow to investors, UBS says its targets for the following year look too optimistic. "Part of the bull case on Evolution was how cheap it looked on FY 2024 metrics on higher production rates, improved commodity prices and post the heavy capex program," analyst Levi Spry says in a note. Yet Evolution's Red Lake mine continues to underperform at a time when gold prices are high. "It is clear to us that FY 2024 guidance of 800,000 oz is out of reach and it appears there is underspend on capex," UBS says. "Additionally, possible delays on stamp duty means FY 2024 enterprise value-to-Ebitda and free cash-flow metrics have come back slightly." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0049 GMT - Pilbara Minerals' share price appears to have run too hard, says Morgan Stanley, measuring its performance versus other lithium stocks. In a note, analyst Rahul Anand starts Pilbara Minerals at underweight with a A$3.15/share target price. MS forecasts Pilbara Minerals' output will rise by 105% over the next three years, lagging the growth rates of Allkem and Mineral Resources. "We see volume the driver for sustained EPS growth over pricing tailwinds," MS says. "Pilbara Minerals is also implying the second highest spodumene price of US$2,250/ton in our coverage, and trades on the highest FY25/FY26 enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple." Pilbara Minerals' shares are 2.2% lower at A$3.61. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2313 GMT -- Chalice Mining's 60% increase in the resource of its Gonneville base-metals deposit in Western Australia prompts Macquarie to assume a bigger development than before. Macquarie forecasts Chalice's wider Julimar project produces 10 million tons/year initially, and it then doubles in size after 10 years. "Our development scenario now incorporates a mixed hydroxide process, which delivers higher nickel payability rates," says Macquarie, which raises its price target by 19% to A$9.50/share. Chalice ended Tuesday at A$7.80. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2310 GMT - General insurance pricing in Australia is likely to continue to stay elevated for next 12 months, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank's analysis has found new business pricing for home risks rose by 17% in the March quarter, materially ahead of Macquarie estimates for repricing of previously acquired customers. For SME's, Macquarie says average premium rate rises were more than 14%, the highest on record. "We expect each of the trends to continue for the next 12 months at these high levels," says Macquarie. It attributes the extension of the premium rate cycle, partly to inflation and reinsurance costs, adding that repricing trends will be positive for all insurers. Macquarie keeps its positive outlook on the sector. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2306 GMT - Private-equity firm TPG could be interested in acquiring InvoCare and making a parallel bid for Nirvana Asia, which media reports suggest is up for sale, Macquarie says. InvoCare has rejected a A$12.65/share offer by TPG, which owns nearly 20% of the company's stock. In a note, Macquarie points to media reports that CVC Capital Partners is running a sales process for Nirvana Asia, with a potential price tag of around A$2 billion. Buying InvoCare and Nirvana Asia could enable TPG to wring significant savings and build a larger footprint in Southeast Asia, it says. TPG could also combine InvoCare's Pets business with its existing Greencross business. "This could potentially lead to some pressure on TPG to deliver a higher bid to ensure ownership of both InvoCare and Nirvana," Macquarie adds. (david.winning@wsj.com)

0548 GMT - While Newmont's sweetened bid for Newcrest is a positive for the Australian gold miner, the proposed takeover isn't a done deal and Newcrest could trade below the latest offer price while uncertainty lingers, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says in a note. On one hand, the proposal that Newmont says is its best and final gives Newcrest investors value upfront for the company's long-life gold and copper assets, says Peker. "Alternatively, the deal may still be seen as opportunistic by NCM's board and shareholders given short-term operational issues, an interim CEO, and a perceived lack of market appreciation for long-term project potential," he says. Peker reckons the offer is compelling value for Newcrest shareholders versus past gold-industry deals. Newcrest is up 5.2% at A$29.745/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires