Forum Topics TPD TPD Discussion
PinchOfSalt
Added 3 years ago

I note that @Longpar5 values Strike's 55% share of Walyering at $100M. That would make Talon's stake worth roughly $80M

Similarly, the market values TMK at $80M for its two third stake of Gurvantes XXXV so that makes TPD's one third worth $40M

Cash on hand was $12M at end Dec 2022, less some spend and $14M raised in April - should be about $20M in the bank with Walyering about to start generating cash.

Add something for L7 and the other prospects and Talon's total starts to add up well beyond the current MC.

Perhaps @nessy or @Gprp would like to comment.

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Longpar5
Added 3 years ago

Agreed, sum of the parts on Talon is attractive and I bought in with my NWE proceeds a few months ago. However, no one destroys capital like a small oil and gas explorer so be wary! I was not expecting the capital raising when I bought but hasn't destroyed the thesis. With the action on Strike since the lockyer 2 failure I think it only makes Talon more attractive.

The downside of a concentrated portfolio (most the value in walyering, whereas strike are better diversified) is that if walyering doesn't deliver they're in trouble, they are trying to diversify and that's good. I'm a little nervous about downside risk at walyering just given strike's promotional style and limited operational experience.

Its funny, when I first screened talon I wasn't interested due to the Mongolia asset, however it definitely has grown on me. Fast progress and a low risk target. They talk up the location, but they are going to need a bigger partner eventually to build a pipeline (300km from memory). All said I'd be happy to see them prove up a little more then sell it on, I expect some see it as baggage and talon would be a more attractive investment or takeover target without it. They effectively paid around 10m for their stake, but think it will fetch more than this as TMK valuation look through shows.

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