0249 GMT - Hub24's 3Q core funds under administration flows were weaker, amid what looks to be a softer quarter across the broader industry for retail flows from financial advisers, UBS analysts say in a note. For 3Q, net inflows were A$1.9 billion vs. UBS's expectation of A$2.8 billion. Consistent with Hub24's rival Netwealth, this was the softest flows quarter since 2Q 2021, UBS notes. Hub24's flows outlook in the mid-long term is likely to be driven by the company's market share, which remains low at 5.4%. "It is therefore a secular growth opportunity within management control," says UBS.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0229 GMT - BHP's coal operations already need "to sprint home in the second half to achieve the low end of guidance," but could fall further behind in 3Q due to ongoing headwinds from labor constraints and weather disruptions, Morgans analysts say in a note. The analysts expect weaker 3Q operational results overall from the world's biggest miner when it reports on Friday, although they say that shouldn't be a surprise to the market. In fact, the analysts upgrade the miner to add from hold, citing their "growing confidence in the health of fundamentals supporting metals." BHP is up 1.6% in Sydney at A$47.33 a share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0216 GMT - Lovisa's store-rollout program helps support the Australian jewelry retailer's continued outperform rating from Macquarie, despite some softness in local underlying demand. Macquarie analysts tell clients in a note that greater confidence in store rollouts, including in the U.S. and Mexico, is a key factor in their decision to raise their target price by 32% to A$35.70. They lift EPS forecasts for FY 2024 and FY 2025 by 9.7% and 8.8%, respectively, and see scope for management to hit the top end of long-term incentive hurdles. The stock is up 0.3% at A$25.37. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0211 GMT - Rio Tinto is likely to be the standout among Australian iron-ore producers for the quarter ended March 31 compared with rivals BHP and Fortescue, as it continues to ramp up its new Gudai-Darri mine, UBS analysts say in a note. "Even though it is early in CY23, we see potential for Rio to lift its 2023 guidance to the 'upper half' of the 320-335 [million ton] range and push beyond," say the analysts. They estimate that Rio Tinto's shipments from Australia's Pilbara will rise about 13% on-year to 81 million metric tons. Rio Tinto is up 1.6% in Sydney at A$123.75. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0142 GMT - Australian banks are likely to underperform in the near future, Morgan Stanley analysts say in an investor presentation. Underpinning this view is the prospect of worse-than-forecast margin compression, double-digit earnings declines, and a "bumpy" economic landing next year. MS reckons that the tailwinds that drove an EPS upgrade cycle since the start of 2022 have run their course, and that earnings will peak in 1H FY 2023. "While net interest margins and earnings have recovered strongly this year and average price-earnings ratio multiples have de-rated materially," the investment bank adds. Westpac is its pick among the major banks, followed by ANZ, NAB and CBA. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0054 GMT - Australian specialist-investment platform Hub24 is likely to keep bedding down its market-leading position, alongside rival Netwealth, Morgans analysts Scott Murdoch and Jared Gelsomino say in a note. Even so, with core inflows slowing across the industry partly due to uncertain investment markets, Morgans lowers its longer-term net inflow assumptions given the structural nature of the slowdown. The broker still thinks that Hub24 can post strong medium-term growth given its run rate, and maintains an add call on the stock. For 3Q FY 2023, Hub24's Platform net inflows of A$1.9 billion were down 29% on year, and down 33% on quarter. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0024 GMT - Australian specialist investment platform Hub24's 3Q FY23 update was mixed, with weaker than expected net Inflows of A$1.87 billion, representing the lowest level of net inflows since 2Q FY21, says Jefferies analyst Simon Fitzgerald in a note. Still, he adds that funds under administration growth remains strong, noting that Hub24 reaffirmed FY24 Platform FUA of A$80 billion-A$89 billion. Jefferies reckons that Hub24 remains on track to reach the investment bank's FY23 Platform FUA year-end target of A$63 billion, and reaffirms its buy rating.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2339 GMT - Hub24's agreement with Equity Trustees to provide custodial platform administration and technology solutions for trustee services clients, could boost its revenue, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The specialist investment platform company said this week that it expects the agreement to see A$4 billion of funds under administration over the next 18 months. "Our discussions with management suggest the revenue margin of this transition is in the mid-20s. We therefore estimate this mandate to add A$10 million of revenue and A$4-5 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization," Macquarie says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2338 GMT - Expect soft quarterly results from Australia's gold miners, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Alexander Barkley, who reckons Ramelius and Silver Lake have highest likelihood of disappointing. The risks for Northern Star, Evolution and Gold Road "are relatively slimmer, albeit these stocks are priced for greater consistency," he says. Operating issues for the companies are widespread, linked to heavy rainfall, maintenance and technical setbacks, he says, predicting that FY23 guidance downgrades could continue. Barkley tips "benign" results from Newcrest, whose stock is somewhat buttressed by the proposed Newmont takeover proposal, he adds. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2336 GMT - Australian specialist investment platform Hub24 may see improved financial adviser growth, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank says that the company signed 27 new distribution agreements in the March quarter fiscal 2023, which is a slight increase on the previous quarter. Citi says this is "in-line with the average over the last three years and is positive for adviser growth and flows in the future." Still, Citi notes that total advisers sat at 3,748 in the March quarter which was up 9% year-on-year, but continues to be below historical average of 115 per quarter over the last five years. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2329 GMT - Copper, the metal seen in high demand amid a global energy transition, is facing some near-term demand headwinds, traders at Macquarie say in a client note. "The bullish scenario that markets appeared to be pricing in early January is looking increasingly less likely to materialize, with Chinese indicators pointing to a mixed recovery, the lagged effects of monetary policy in Europe starting to appear and the outlook for the U.S. remaining cyclically challenging," the traders say. In China, construction activity remains weak and consumer goods demand soft, although investment in renewable energy is a bright spot for the metal, they say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com)

2327 GMT - It looks like Australia's house price decline is starting to bottom out as strong population growth, and a weak pipeline for new housing supply puts a floor under the market. Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, Australia, says the decline in house prices of 10% over the last year is less than he had forecast. He now expects muted house price growth and has raised his earlier forecast for a year-on-year price fall of 6% to 8% over 2023 to a fall of 1% to 3%. The upward revision is biased to the Sydney and Melbourne markets, which are benefiting more from stronger inward migration than elsewhere. (james.glynn@wsj.com)

2325 GMT - Regis Resources's latest setback could make it more vulnerable to a takeover, Bell Potter analyst David Coates says in a note. Regis said 3Q gold output of 103,728 oz was lower than it had expected and reflected a slow ramp up of the new Duketon South Garden Well underground mine. Bell Potter had forecast 3Q production of 117,800 oz. "We view the fundamental, medium-term outlook as intact but that this disruption may make Regis a more vulnerable corporate target," says Bell Potter, which rates the stock a buy. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - For Cooper Energy, attracting a new partner to its Otway joint venture looks key to Macquarie. Doing so could unlock considerable value given the gas plant is the only one serving southern Australia with more than 100 terajoules per day of spare capacity, the bank says. "However, the JV is misaligned and government interventions introduced too much uncertainty for any deal around Mitsui's 50% stake to occur," says Macquarie in a note. As a result, a final investment decision on the OP3D project has been delayed by at least 6 months, and probably more like a year. "With clarity, a deal could be done, which would position Cooper with more certainty around taking FID on OP3D," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2316 GMT - Core Lithium should be able to continue mining at its Finniss project for longer after upgrading its resource there, Macquarie says. Core Lithium raised its total resource by 62% to 30.6 million tons of ore grading at 1.31% lithium oxide through the addition of two new deposits. "We have increased our mining inventory assumption for the Carlton underground to reflect the upgrade to the resource," says Macquarie in a note. "Our mine life for the Carlton underground increases by one year, extending the life of the Finniss project to just over 17 years." (david.winning@wsj.com)

2250 GMT - Cooper Energy's near-term outlook is uncertain despite 3Q production meeting expectations and annual guidance remaining intact, says Bell Potter. A final investment decision on the OP3D project is in limbo as Cooper awaits news of the government's gas code of conduct and associated pricing mechanisms. "Across the forecast period, we expect Cooper will further draw debt to fund abandonment works and OP3D," says analyst Stuart Howe in a note. "However, Cooper does hold a solid portfolio of conventional gas assets delivering into Australia's domestic east coast market." These assets provide leverage to south east Australian spot gas prices, which have the potential to strengthen across the winter months, says Howe, who retains a buy call on Cooper's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2240 GMT - Australian specialist investment platform Hub24 is likely to see weaker-than-expected flows on the back of weak financial adviser and client sentiment in the near term, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank lowers its FY 2023 flow forecasts to A$10.2 billion which assumes A$2.6 billion in flows in the June quarter. Citi notes that Hub24's 3Q FY 2023 flows of A$1.9 billion were down 29% year-on-year on an underlying basis, and missed the investment bank's recently lowered forecast of A$2.3 billion by 19%. But Citi upgrades its FY 2024 flow forecasts by 28%, which assumes A$4 billion in transition from Equity Trustees starting in 2Q FY 2024, and the normalization of adviser activity. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2235 GMT - Domain's decision not to match the scale of real-estate advertising rival REA's price rises in Sydney surprises Goldman Sachs analysts. They admit that their data on Domain are less comprehensive than that for REA but they can see enough to note that Domain has raised its Sydney prices by about 10%, compared with larger rival REA's 12.5% hike. That still exceeds the 8% increase they had anticipated. GS raises its target price on Domain shares by 4% to A$3.65 but cuts its recommendation to hold from buy on valuation. The stock last traded at A$3.41. REA is 61% owned by News Corp., which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2236 GMT - REA Group's larger-than-anticipated price rises suggest that the Australian property advertiser is trying to entice agents to move up to higher-tiered products, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the price rises, which will take effect in REA's FY 2024, indicate that REA is persisting with a strategy of targeting higher increases on lower-tier products. The aim is to encourage agents to move up tiers in pursuit of increased value. GS maintains a buy rating and A$164.00 target price on the stock, which last traded at A$142.20. REA is 61% owned by News Corp., which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires