Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 03 May 2023 14:49:01
Jimmy
12 months ago

0430 GMT - While the RBA may be done raising interest rates, Australian equities look set to remain in limbo for longer, UBS analyst Richard Schellbach says in a research note. "The challenges that active managers are facing look set to remain in the near term through a period where we believe the RBA's 'rate plateau' will keep equities stuck in a range," UBS says. It points out that valuations of the ASX's most defensive stocks are back at pandemic extremes, while fund managers are on average holding a 3% weighting in cash. Also, a lack of conviction from equity investors is illustrated by gold becoming the dominant macro driver of Australian equities returns over the past six months, UBS says. The S&P/ASX 200 index is 1.5% lower at 7160.7. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0408 GMT - Casino taxes could become a bigger issue for Star Entertainment even as it battles an unprecedented slowdown in earnings and seeks loan-covenant relief, Jefferies says. The New South Wales government has already said that it is reviewing casino taxes in Sydney and analyst Simon Thackray says in a note that other states could follow suit. "With a Queensland election in Oct. 24, the prospect of raising casino taxes cannot be ruled out given the NSW experience where the higher taxes became a tailwind for politicians into the March 23 election," he says. Jefferies cuts its price target on Star by 10% to A$1.39. Star is down 2.4% at A$1.23. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0405 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's 3Q sales were more resilient than Jefferies expected. "While sales have begun to decline year-over-year, we were surprised to see acceleration in February-March on a 4-year basis (pre-Covid) in both JB Hi-Fi Australia and Good Guys," says analyst Michael Simotas in a note. Jefferies believes demand is moderating but that rival Harvey Norman is losing material market share, benefiting JB Hi-Fi. "With monetary policy and cost of living pressures continuing to weigh on households, we expect things to get much worse eventually," the bank says, reiterating its underperform call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0402 GMT - Amcor's profit warning is long overdue because its original growth forecasts were based on assumptions that always looked optimistic, says Jefferies analyst Richard Johnson in a note. Packaging company Amcor now expects FY 2023 adjusted EPS of between 72 U.S. cents and 74 U.S. cents, down from prior guidance for the lower end of a 77-81 U.S. cents range. Weak volume was the main issue facing Amcor in 3Q, Johnson says. Similar to 2Q, the "period ended weaker than it started with January and February down only 1%-2% before falling mid single digit in March," Johnson says. "This doesn't bode well for the 4Q." Jefferies has an underperform call on Amcor. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0347 GMT - Jefferies thinks there's more to outdoor advertising group oOh!media's decline in so-called Street revenue in 1Q. In a trading update today, oOh!media said its share of the Street market fell 1.9% in 1Q due to rival QMS Media launching new digital street furniture, such as billboards, in the City of Sydney last year. That puzzles analyst John Campbell, who rates oOh!media a hold. "We find it hard to reconcile the impact of this Sydney-only competitor campaign launch with a -2% national share loss in 1Q23," Campbell says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0300 GMT - Domain's 3Q update doesn't raise any major concerns considering the challenging industry-wide conditions in which the Australian property advertiser is operating, E&P Financial analyst Paul Mason says. The detail of Domain's trading update is generally fine given broader listings declines, he says in a note. Domain's guidance for FY 2023 costs of A$255 million is marginally higher than the prior average analyst forecast of A$252.8 million, while its implied Ebitda margin guidance of about 31.5% compares with prior market expectations of 32.1%, Mason says. E&P has a last-published positive recommendation and a A$4.46 target price on the stock, which is 2.7% lower at A$3.24. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0226 GMT - Computershare is more likely to deploy its US$2 billion or so of surplus capital on EPS-accretive acquisitions than return it to shareholders, Citi analysts reckon. They tell clients in a note that capital returns remain an option for the Australia-listed share-registry provider, but that management would prefer to take an alternative approach. Computershare could have as much as US$3 billion in surplus capital by the end of FY 2024, they add. Citi cuts target price by 5.1% to A$25.90 after Computershare lowered its FY 2024 margin-income projection for a second time, a move that disappointed analysts but wasn't completely surprising. Citi maintains a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$21.57. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0122 GMT - Australian banks are likely to see strong margin expansion in 1H FY 2023, with an average increase of around 14 basis points on half for major lenders ANZ, NAB and Westpac, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. But with margins on track for a peak, MS reckons investors will be focused on 2Q FY 2023 margins. "We forecast margins to be up by an average of 1 basis point quarter on quarter in the March quarter, as the full impact of the recent increase in deposit competition is only likely to emerge in the June quarter," says MS. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0110 GMT - ANZ should benefit from its above-average exposure to New Zealand and institutional banking, and its smaller presence in the Australian mortgage market, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. As a result, the investment bank forecasts that the lender's margin will rise 17 basis points half-on-half, with a peak in the March quarter. At the same time, MS notes that ANZ's outlook commentary is less cautious than that of its peers. The lender is due to report 1H results Friday. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0050 GMT - Medibank's 3Q FY 2023 trading update looks "modestly positive," to Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway. In a note, he says the update showed higher-than-expected non-residents profit, continued benign claims and no further major damage evident from the recent cyberattack it suffered. In an updated FY 2023 outlook, the Australian health insurer laid out revisions to expectations for non-resident gross profit, which is now expected to approximately double from its A$37.5 million level in FY 2022, rather than simply guiding to 2H profit being higher than 1H. Citi reckons this implies a minimum of A$44 million gross profit in 2H. Citi has a neutral call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0032 GMT - Australia's robust domestic deposit growth is defying global trends, say Citi analysts in a note analyzing regulatory data for March. Citi notes that Australian domestic deposit growth has been decelerating but is still tracking strong at 6%, on a three-month annualized basis. This, the investment bank says, is different to many advanced economies including the U.S., Italy and Sweden, which are weathering a contraction. The severe and sharp fall in Australian business lending surprises Citi, as this has usually been late-cycle evident in previous crises. Even so, as deposit growth is running ahead of lending growth, it does mitigate some of the pressure on the lenders with respect to wholesale funding.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2359 GMT - Medibank continues to be attractive as its private health insurance business growth stabilizes, supported by give backs to customers, and underlying claims remain below expectations, say Jefferies analysts in a note. On Medibank's 2022 cyberattack, Jefferies notes that Medibank has already guided for non-recurring cybercrime costs for FY 2023 and doesn't expect any real change in ongoing IT costs related to cybercrime. Even so, the investment bank says that there is the potential for longer-term costs associated with the cyberattack around customer remediation, for example. Jefferies cuts Medibank to hold from a buy and trims its target price 5.1%to A$3.70. Medibank was last down 0.6% to A$3.49.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2352 GMT - Computershare's downgrade to its FY 2024 margin-income expectations is material but volatility in this income stream is nothing new, Jefferies analysts remind clients. They say in a note that client balances, the level of which helps determine the Australian share-registry provider's margin income, are fluid and can move around depending on activity levels. The analysts see the prospect of improved hedging policies as a positive but still cut their FY 2024 EPS forecast by 8%. Jefferies cuts target price by 9.2% to A$24.20 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which last traded at A$21.45. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2301 GMT -- Medibank's 3Q FY 2023 update which contained a largely unchanged fiscal 2023 outlook leaves Australia's largest private health insurer on track to meet Morningstar's forecasts, says the ratings company's analyst Nathan Zaia. He says that keeping policyholders after 2022's cyberattack was a key short-term risk for the company, but there is evidence to suggest that the worst may be over. "This is likely a combination of member apathy and positive perception of Medibank's product offering compared with smaller competitors," says Zaia. He notes that policyholders at 3Q-end are flat compared with mid-February, which leads Morningstar to assume that growth is positive so far in 4Q as management retained full-year policy holder growth guidance. "Over the medium term we assume policyholder numbers grow at around 1.5% per year out to fiscal 2027," says Zaia. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0531 GMT - Perpetual upgraded the synergies it expects from its Pendal acquisition by A$20 million to A$80 million in its 3Q trading update, but UBS analysts Shreyas Patel and Scott Russell reckon that an uptick in cost growth takes the shine off this upgrade. In a note, they say they were disappointed that Perpetual's total FY 2023 expense-growth guidance of 37-39% implies Pendal costs are running higher than market expectations in 2H, adding that annualization into FY 2024 could negate incremental synergy benefits. UBS cuts its target price on Perpetual by 6.9% to A$27.00. Perpetual is 1.7% lower at A$24.47. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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