Forum Topics US FOMC Meeting
Rapstar
11 months ago

Overnight, the US Federal reserve raised the benchmark interest rate a further 0.25% for 5-5.25%.

The US Federal Reserve staff report also guided for a "mild recession" by end of 2023. Jerome Powell stated he disagreed with this report, and expected a soft landing - Of course he would say that, as he doesn't want to scare the horses and make things worse.

Jerome said the Fed board will remain data dependant and specifically stated this is not a pause. I think he is try to sell calls to the market (keep a lid on animal spirits).

What did bonds do?

  1. 3 month bond yield jumped to 5.26% - in line with benchmark rate
  2. 6 month bond yield remained flat, after a brief spike, indicating an expectation for a 25 basis point rate but before year end.
  3. 1 year bond yield fell around 0.2%, indicating an expectation for a 50 basis point cut over the next 12 months.


So the bond market is betting on a pivot before year end, and seemingly agrees with the "The staff" report regarding impending recession.

Looking good for bonds in the 7-10 year duration....

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