Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 04 May 2023 14:55:47
Jimmy
12 months ago

0452 GMT - National Australia Bank's net interest margin is starting to reduce slightly amid overly strong competition in deposits, says CEO Ross McEwan. Speaking after handing down the lender's 1H FY 2023 results on Thursday, McEwan says ongoing competition in the "deposit end of the marketplace" is putting pressure on NIM. Disclosures released alongside NAB's 1H results say housing lending competitive pressures are also likely to continue, and the lender's NIM ex markets and treasury peaked in 2Q FY 2023 at 1.76%. By 2Q, overall NIM was 1.75%, NAB says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0412 GMT - NAB isn't seeing any "major problems" in its mortgage book, even against the backdrop of higher interest rates, says CEO Ross McEwan. Speaking after handing down the lender's 1H FY 2023 results on Thursday, McEwan says there has been a small increase in the 30- and 60-days past-due categories, but notes that it isn't flowing through into 90-days past due. "So, they are curing, that is customers are finding their way back to payment," he says. NAB has contacted 7,000 of the customers it suspected may have been at risk of mortgage stress, and found that only 13 said they would like more help, McEwan adds. "It's showing [that] full employment...is really helping, and that's the crucial thing to watch out for, is the unemployment level," McEwan says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0356 GMT - Brickworks's North America product volumes are growing again after stalling through the Covid-19 pandemic, Jarden analyst Rohan Gallagher says. Brickworks highlighted the resurgence on an investor tour in the U.S., he tells clients in a note. The Australia-listed company has largely completed its rationalization process in the U.S., closing seven plants, raising utilization to 72% from 46% and halving the average kiln age to about 20 years. With headcount also reduced, this should support cost efficiency, Gallagher says. He raises his FY 2023-FY 2025 Ebit forecasts for the unit, and lifts its target price by 0.9% to A$28.75 with an unchanged neutral rating. Shares are flat at A$24.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0205 GMT - Weakness in NAB's 1H FY 2023 net interest margin is likely due to stronger deposit competition and switching between providers, say Citi analysts in a note analyzing the Australian major lender's interim results released earlier today. Investors seem to be focused on the 2Q NIM (ex markets and treasury) of 1.76%, which likely indicates progressive weakness due to mortgage retention pricing and deposit competition during the period, Citi reckons. "We think the result will be received negatively, with investors likely to query the benefit of future rate rises versus the drag from deposit competition and mix, as well as mortgage retention pricing," says Citi which sees potential for consensus NIM downgrades. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0157 GMT - Computershare's FY 2023 earnings are looking more resilient in the face of lower customer balances than Jarden analysts had feared. While Computershare's downgraded FY 2023 margin-income guidance is lower than Jarden had forecast, they see above-budget employee-plan trading, continued growth in governance services and lower-than-anticipated operating expenses supporting Computershare's reiterated EPS guidance. Things are less rosy for FY 2024, although Jarden tells clients in a note that there is potential upside risk to earnings should corporate-action activity levels recover. Jarden trims its target price by 1.2% to A$25.10 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 1.7% at A$21.55. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0138 GMT - Nine Entertainment impresses Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel by growing its TV ratings share, although macro headwinds keep him cautious on the stock. The Australian media conglomerate says it gained 2.5 percentage points of ratings share in 3Q, which Samuel puts down to better programming. He says in a note that Nine's projection of FY23 TV ad revenue declines in the very low, single digits is reasonable given that rival Seven West projected a 2H market-wide drop of 11%. Nine's cost controls look good and Samuel notes that the quality of its digital assets has facilitated sizeable price rises. Jefferies trims the stock's target price 2.3% to A$2.08 and maintains a hold rating. Shares are down 3.0% at A$1.97. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0128 GMT - Nine Entertainment's reinstated FY 2023 Ebitda guidance was a positive surprise for UBS analysts given how it improves earnings visibility heading into 4Q. They tell clients in a note there are several other positives in the media conglomerate's trading update, citing ad markets declining by less than industry data had suggested. They also like Nine's strong share of free-to-air and broadcast-on-demand revenue markets, plus its digital and streaming price rises. UBS makes only minor changes to earnings forecasts and reiterates its buy recommendation with a A$2.40 target price. Shares are down 2.6% at A$1.9775. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0111 GMT - Domain has several factors in its favor but an uncertain outlook for Australia's property market keeps Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel cautious on the real-estate advertiser. Samuel tells clients in a note that while 3Q listings volumes were lower than Domain had anticipated, yield growth would be strong in FY 2024. Price rises, geographical exposure and a new product launch are all positives should the market stabilize, but Samuel points out that the macro outlook remains unclear. Jefferies cuts target price by 5.1% to A$3.34 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is down by 1.9% at A$3.17. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0106 GMT - Ramsay Health Care's medium- to longer-term outlook remains favorable despite the private hospital operator's weaker-than-expected 3Q earnings, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that industry labor constraints in Australia and the U.K. weighed on Ramsay during the three months through March, while inflation continued to affect costs. Surgical admission trends in Australia were positive, but nonsurgical trends were mixed and uncertainty hangs over cost recovery at its French operations, they add. They cut their FY 2023 and FY 2024 EPS expectations by 17% and 11%, respectively. Macquarie lowers its target price by 6.5% to A$64.50 and stays neutral on the stock, which is down 2.6% at A$60.27. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0035 GMT - UBS analysts reiterate their buy rating on Domain, viewing the Australian property advertiser's 3Q underperformance as temporary. They tell clients in a note that Domain's exposure to the Sydney and Melbourne markets was to blame, but that this same exposure should be helpful as market conditions stabilize. Domain's 10% price rises for FY24 will be a supporting factor, they say. They reckon that consecutive monthly property price rises in March and April, low levels of supply and resurgent migration should offset any impact on the market from the Reserve Bank's latest interest-rate rise. UBS cuts the stock's target price 3.8% to A$3.75 on lower near-term earnings forecasts. Shares are down 1.9% at A$3.17. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0020 GMT - Computershare is in no hurry to offload its excess cash and expects opportunities to acquire mortgage servicing rights in the coming year, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients that Computershare maintains a prudent approach toward any potential capital returns, with the Australia-listed share-registry provider first focusing on full integration of its corporate trust acquisition. Macquarie lowers target price by 3.8% to A$25.00 on Computershare's lower FY 2024 margin-income outlook but maintains an outperform rating on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$21.98. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0013 GMT - NAB delivered record 1H FY 2023 results, despite a weaker-than-expected net interest margin outcome, UBS analyst John Storey says in a note. He calls out the fact that the bank's NIM was only up 10 bps half on half, with NAB asserting that NIM peaked in December at 1.79%, and was at 1.76% at the end of 2Q ex-markets and treasury. "UBS is around 4%-10%? below consensus for FY 2024/25 and this result in our view confirms consensus is likely to revise earnings per share down further," says the investment bank.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0003 GMT - NAB is likely to see increased earnings pressure in 2H FY 2023, with further margin expansion unlikely, says Moody's Investors Service in a note. Moody's sees that the operating environment is on track to weaken, which could lead to higher credit impairment charges for NAB. Still, for the Australian major lender's 1H result, released earlier today, Moody's describes cash earnings of A$4.1 billion as being robust, reflecting NAB's "solid" business banking franchise. At the same time, Moody's says NAB has benefitted from higher interest rates and credit environment which remains benign.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2312 GMT - While packaging company Amcor's 8% downgrade to annual guidance is disappointing, current trends suggest FY 2024 growth will also be hard to achieve, Morgan Stanley says. Amcor's new guidance for FY 2023 points to further deterioration in volumes in 4Q as consumers tighten budgets and customers use up product stockpiles. Morgan Stanley cuts its FY 2023 EPS forecast to 72 U.S. cents/share, putting it at the bottom end of Amcor's revised guidance range. "Our FY 2024 revisions see a 13% decrease in our Ebit forecast as we assume further volume deterioration from weakening consumer demand," MS says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2306 GMT - Morgan Stanley thinks the 4Q turnaround needed by private-hospital operator Ramsay Health Care to achieve prior forecasts looks insurmountable, and cuts its EPS view as a result. In a note, analyst Sean Laaman says Ramsay's 3Q update suggests its volume recovery remains on track and revenue growth is shaping up to be within expectations. "However, cost pressures are greater than we had anticipated and the turnaround required in 4Q to meet our prior expectations too great," MS says. "As such, we downwardly revise our FY23, FY24 and FY25 EPS by -13.5%, -5.1% and -7.8%, respectively." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2249 GMT - Super Retail's 3Q commentary around its margins was weak, suggesting the company has already ceded more of the expansion in gross margins during the Covid-19 pandemic than it expected, Jefferies says. Super Retail said gross margin in 2H so far is 10 basis points lower than 1H. "Margin is typically 40-50bps higher in 2H and the commentary implies a circa 80bps year-over-year decline in 2H, which would be a A$14 million pretax profit headwind (circa 8%)," analyst Michael Simotas says in a note. "This would also imply the group has given up more than 2/3 of the circa 300bps gross margin improvement in enjoyed through Covid." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2235 GMT - Flight Centre is seeing a strong recovery in travel demand, but its revenue margin hasn't improved, Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas says in a note. The lackluster margin performance partly reflects airline commission cuts, and Jefferies says it's consequently cautious about Flight Centre's ability to achieve a 2% pretax profit margin target. The bank also highlights Flight Centre's new capital-management review that will focus on medium-term shareholder returns. "While we expect dividend to resume, we like the historical approach of holding cash in excess of client cash," Jefferies says. It downgrades Flight Centre to underperform, from hold. "With stock on more than 21x diluted FY 2019 earnings, we believe too much is priced," the bank says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2230 GMT - Could there be an emerging structural issue for Ramsay Health Care in the wake of the private hospital operator's 3Q update, Jefferies asks. Ramsay continues to focus on improving productivity as it recovers from pandemic disruption. "We agree improvement is possible, but flag that clinicians are working less than they were pre-Covid (perhaps due to increased casuals leading to a less efficient ward structure)," analyst David Stanton says in a note. "And whilst casualization rates are better than mid-2022, industry contacts suggest that casual rates per shift are still 2 to 3x what they were pre-Covid." Jefferies, which rates Ramsay at hold, isn't optimistic that workforce issues will be resolved before 2025. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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