Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 05 May 2023 15:01:18
Jimmy
12 months ago

0210 GMT - ANZ's 1H net interest margin wasn't as bad as expected after recent peer results, Citi analysts says in a note. They say the 1H NIM of 1.75% initially looks like it substantially missed expectations, but 1H NIM (ex markets and liquidity) of 1.83% was in-line with consensus, although below Citi's expectation of 1.88%. The investment bank reckons that ANZ's 1H results were better than feared after weak results across the Australian banking sector. "Weakness in cost growth and reported NIM were offset by strong markets revenue…and lower band and doubtful debts expense. The recent share price selloff is unlikely to find further negative catalysts in this result," says Citi.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0152 GMT - While Macquarie's FY earnings issued Friday were ahead of consensus, Citi analysts think the result is much different when viewed by segment. In a note, they say net profit contribution missed in the Macquarie Asset Management, Banking and Financial Services and Macquarie Capital units. This was only offset by a material beat in the net profit contribution provided by the Commodities and Global Markets unit, noting that this unit benefited from a record inventory and trading result. "On first blush we see downside risk in outlook statements across the divisions, coupled with a lower base ex-CGM," says Citi. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0133 GMT - Australia's central bank has had its hand forced when it comes to interest rate hikes, as the country's economy stays "robust," says ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott. Speaking after the lender's 1H FY 2023 results, Elliott says: "Sadly the answer is to cause a little bit of pain, to cause a little bit of fear. It's to try and stop people spending. So the economy slows down a little bit," adding that "I know it sounds harsh, but the reserve bank needs to keep increasing interest rates until it hurts." Counterintuitively, Elliott says that homeowners seem to be "doing ok," but those who are renting or are in less-stable employment, for example, are the ones that are suffering. "They're bearing the brunt at the moment, of the cost of living changes, and so that's an unintended outcome," he adds.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0125 GMT - The downward trend of net interest margins across the Australian banking sector is likely to resume, ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott says. Speaking after handing down the lender's 1H FY 2023 resulst, Elliott sys that margins have been declining for 30 years, with a "few blips along the way," adding that that these blips often come about in times of stress. Elliott says competition in mortgages, and now deposits, have been good for customers."Margins are a great indicator of customer benefit, and what we're seeing is that customers more broadly have benefitted from that competition," he says. For 1H, ANZ's NIM of 1.75% was below consensus expectations, despite being higher on year. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - Australian travel agent Flight Centre's revenue margins will likely keep declining, Ord Minnett analyst John O'Shea says. He tells clients in a note that Ord Minnett had flagged the margin decline even before the Covid-19 pandemic and says he is skeptical of any material change to the trend. Airfares have likely peaked along with the short-term revenue benefit to agents including Flight Centre, although O'Shea notes that Flight Centre is doing an excellent job of retaining the operating-cost savings it generated during the pandemic. Ord Minnett maintains a lighten recommendation and A$17.39 target price on the stock, which is up 0.2% at A$21.10. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0104 GMT - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's stock has risen since its January guidance upgrade as its price-to-earnings multiple expands, suggesting to Forsyth Barr that investors believe more earnings upgrades are likely. However, the bank thinks the market could be disappointed. "Following recent competitor results and data releases, we think it is unlikely Fisher & Paykel upgrades its FY 2023 revenue guidance (NZ$1.55 billion-NZ$1.60 billion)," says Forsyth Barr, pointing to updates from ResMed and Vapotherm. Fisher & Paykel is due to report its FY 2023 results on May 26. "Valuation remains a challenge for us and at 50x 12-month forward PE, our analysis suggests the market is paying for a near best-case earnings execution scenario," Forsyth Barr adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0019 GMT - Macquarie issued a record full year result, with its Commodities and Global Markets unit a standout, UBS analyst John Storey says in a note, but questions whether this will be sustainable. CGM made a net profit contribution of A$6.0 billion, exceeding Macquarie's expectations of A$4.8 billion. Storey notes the record result was largely driven by increased trading income, which benefits from volatile market conditions. With respect to CGM's outlook provided by Macquarie, UBS describes it as "vivid", with income expected to be up on FY 2022, with volatility creating opportunities.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0010 GMT - Life360's subscriber growth is more likely to accelerate meaningfully in 2H rather than in the 1Q result due later this month, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that there is a chance that the family-safety app provider could exceed their 1Q subscriber growth assumptions, but point out that its latest bundled app and device package only launched in the last few weeks. The stock has underperformed peers recently but they think that investor attention will refocus on Life360's strong balance sheet, high growth outlook and latent operating leverage once the company hits breakeven. GS reiterates its buy rating and A$7.85 target price on the stock, which is up 1.5% at A$5.33. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0007 GMT - ANZ's 1H FY 2023 earnings result was another record, but also saw the Australian lender miss net interest margin expectations, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note. For the 1H, ANZ's NIM was 1.75%, which was below consensus expectations of 1.83% and UBS expectations of 1.80%. "At face value the ANZ result looks very similar to peers who have reported so far. Record result, but with a miss on NIM," says UBS. The investment bank reckons that investors will likely pull forecasts down to reflect ANZ's weaker NIM outcome.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2350 GMT - Temple & Webster's 16% on-year decline in April web traffic was likely due to renewed travel hitting Easter activity rather than anything more worrisome, Goldman Sachs analysts say. Stripping out the Easter weekend, the online furniture retailer's on-year fall was 9.5%, broadly consistent with on-year declines seen in February and March, the GS analysts say. They tell clients in a note that they are comfortable that there was no underlying deterioration in trade, adding that conversion levels were actually up. GS has a buy rating and A$6.10 target price on the stock, which last traded at A$3.85. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2345 GMT - National Australia Bank's net interest margin was worse than UBS was expecting, says the investment bank's analyst John Storey in a note. The investment bank says the Australian lender is likely to face further and new headwinds through 2H FY 2023, which could see another 4-7 bps shaved from 1H FY 2023 NIM. UBS cuts its NIM assumptions by 8, 11 and 9 basis points over FY 2023-2025 respectively, and keeps its sell call partly due to a period of potentially lower-than-system lending growth. UBS also maintains its target price of A$25.00/share. NAB was last down 6.4% at A$6.41/share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2340 GMT - Super Retail remains Citi analyst Adrian Lemme's top pick of Australian consumer-discretionary stocks despite a larger-than-expected decline in gross margin so far in its fiscal 2H. Lemme says in a note that the 10 basis-point margin decline relative to 1H is about twice as large as he had expected. Yet he also thinks that the market's expectation of flat 2H sales and a 17% fall in EBIT is too pessimistic. He says that Super Retail is clearly tracking well ahead of that. Lemme sees consumer spending slowing rather than collapsing, while lower FY 2024 freight and sourcing costs are also on the horizon. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$14.50 target price on the stock, which last traded at A$12.49. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2338 GMT - Macquarie now expects outdoor advertising group oOh!media's FY 2023 margins to compress 430 bps from FY 2022, largely reflecting contract renewals. "This reflects our analysis which assumes contracts are either renewed at a higher rent or replaced with new contracts with 6-12 months of lead time," the bank says in a note. Weaker margins combined with softer Street Revenue furniture revenue, as detailed in oOh!media's trading update this week, lead Macquarie to pare its earnings outlook. Macquarie's FY 2023 EPS forecast falls 28%, while its projection for FY 2024 and FY 2025 decline by 28% and 30%, respectively. It retains an outperform call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2332 GMT - UBS thinks most of the bad news is now behind Magellan Financial's stock. "The prospect of an improvement is being led by stronger Global Fund investment performance during March/April lifting the one-year performance record into positive territory," analyst Shreyas Patel says in a note. UBS upgrades its earnings view, driven by higher funds under management mark-to-market and 2H performance fee upgrades. "Cash & Investments underpin A$4.60 per share of value," says UBS, which has a buy call on the stock. "We see upside to this if principal investments can be ultimately crystallized." (david.winning@wsj.com)

2316 GMT - Super Retail has a favorable net cash position and investors can soon expect an uptick in returns, says Wilsons analyst John Hynd in a note. "We forecast capital management in the form of a 5.0% buyback in 1H24," Wilsons says. The bank was impressed with Super Retail's latest trading update, despite stiffening headwinds from softer consumer demand. Gross margins fell in 2H so far but remain within the company's target range. Wilsons retains a market weight call on Super Retail's stock, anticipating that earnings will ease over three years as revenue, gross margins return to pre-pandemic levels. "We see limited scope for material upside surprises to our forecasts so do not believe a premium versus peers is warranted (FY24 PE +13.3% versus peers)," Wilsons says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2216 GMT - Silver Lake Resources's attempt to gatecrash St Barbara's sale of its Leonora gold-mining assets to Genesis Metals could increase its risk profile in the eyes of some investors, says Ord Minnett. Silver Lake's cash-and-shares offer, valued at around A$732 million, was rejected by St Barbara despite it being at a premium to Genesis's offer. "We acknowledge that Silver Lake's offer is non-binding and subject to due diligence," says analyst Paul Kaner in a note. "However, we question this higher proposed price (versus Genesis) on what we already thought was a full valuation -- also with less apparent synergistic benefits." (david.winning@wsj.com)

0536 GMT - Hub24's acquisition of Myprosperity is an "on strategy" acquisition, say Citi analysts in a note and see it as an attempt by Hub24 to own the financial adviser's desktop. However, Citi questions whether or not it will help attract additional flows to the core Hub24 platform. "Overall, we do not expect material earnings changes from consensus on the back of the acquisition and expect the market to wait and see if Hub24 is able to attract additional flows by leveraging the new capability." Citi has a neutral call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0452 GMT - National Australia Bank's net interest margin is starting to reduce slightly amid overly strong competition in deposits, says CEO Ross McEwan. Speaking after handing down the lender's 1H FY 2023 results on Thursday, McEwan says ongoing competition in the "deposit end of the marketplace" is putting pressure on NIM. Disclosures released alongside NAB's 1H results say housing lending competitive pressures are also likely to continue, and the lender's NIM ex markets and treasury peaked in 2Q FY 2023 at 1.76%. By 2Q, overall NIM was 1.75%, NAB says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

4