0317 GMT - REA Group's recent share-price gains leave the Australian property advertiser looking fully valued to Citi analysts, who downgrade the stock to neutral from buy. They tell clients in a note that stronger product price increases and expected depth growth should help against a backdrop of sluggish listing volumes, which could take longer to recover if the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps raising interest rates, but that risk-reward isn't compelling with the company valued at 38X FY24 earnings. Citi raises its target price on the stock 2.8% to A$145.20. Shares are down 0.6% at A$137.255, still 24% higher so far in 2023. REA is 61%-owned by News Corp., which also owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)
0253 GMT - Macquarie analysts are worried by the lack of news from Bravura Solutions on the status of two new contracts that the software company previously said were paused at the clients' request. The analysts say in a note that Bravura's silence suggests that the outcome is unlikely to be positive. The Australian company had been expecting a status update within eight weeks of its announcement of the pause, but it is now 12 weeks later, the analysts note. Macquarie resumes coverage of the stock following a period of restriction with a neutral rating and A$0.48 target price. Shares are flat at A$0.455. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)
0212 GMT - ASX's investor day may underwhelm, particularly as cost guidance is above consensus forecasts, and its new five-year strategy looks to have modest aspirations, say Citi analysts in a note. "Our initial look at ASX's investor day materials suggests the day contains the rebase we have been fearing since the recent change in CEO and CFO," it says, noting that ASX's update includes expected increased cost and capex guidance and a lowering in the target dividend-payout ratio from FY 2024. While ASX is using debt funding via a corporate bond to help fund future capex, Citi sees that the company is setting its medium-term underlying ROE target at a similar level to that achieved over the last five years. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0200 GMT - The total cost of ASX's CHESS Replacement Partnership Program will be A$70 million, says the company's CFO Andrew Tobin. Speaking at ASX's first investor day, Tobin says the cost consists of a A$15 million rebate for participants, and a development incentive facility of up to A$55 million for eligible stakeholders. "We now estimate that approximately A$35 million of the total program cost will be incurred in 2H FY 2023 which consists of the A$15 million rebate payment and the initial allocation of approximately A$20 million from the development incentive facility to a number of participants, software developers and share registries." Tobin adds that the latter component increased from the initial estimate of A$10 million due to the finalization of the program criteria.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0151 GMT - ASX is on track to announce the new solution design to replace its CHESS clearing and settlement system in the last quarter of 2023, chief information officer Tim Whiteley says. Speaking at ASX's first-ever investor day, Whiteley says that currently, no firm decision has been made on the design. "We continue to explore all options for the solution design," he adds. ASX is looking at four options, including the previous DLT-based solution, and considering how it can be changed to resolve issues that were called out with the system earlier. ASX says it is also assessing options to build a new solution, using conventional technologies, or upgrading its current CHESS system. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
2326 GMT - While Santos's balance sheet looks healthy, the energy company could push back development of the Dorado oil project in Australia to a later date than Macquarie expects. Santos can fund a US$3 billion development given its gearing is at the lower end of a 15%-25% target range, is using surplus cash for share buybacks and is anticipating US$1.1 billion proceeds from the sale of a 5% stake in the PNG LNG project in Papua New Guinea. Macquarie currently assumes a final investment decision on Dorado won't happen until 4Q of 2024. "However, there is a possibility that from a risk perspective it may want to see Barossa onstream (2025) first prior to taking a FID on Dorado--in which case this could potentially be a decision for the next CEO of Santos," Macquarie says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2319 GMT - Macquarie assumes capital costs for the Dorado oil project in Australia have risen by around 50% since Santos forecast US$2 billion capex in 2019. The bank now estimates the project will around US$3 billion. "Clearly this can be reduced significantly (shifted to opex) if a leased FPSO were used (this may make sense ahead of building a more permanent platform which Santos may prefer for the Phase 2 long-term gas tie-in to Varanus Island)," says Macquarie. It also now thinks a final investment decision on Dorado won't happen until 4Q of 2024. Dorado is majority owned by Santos, with Carnarvon Energy the minority shareholder. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2241 GMT - HomeCo Daily Needs REIT retains a bull in Jefferies despite the prospect of further falls in the value of its properties. HomeCo Daily Needs REIT yesterday signaled a 1.5% drop in the valuation of its assets, equivalent to a A$73 million fall, following a six-month review. That reflects a 13 bps increase in cap rates, and reduces its net tangible assets by 2.3%. "We see further downside risk to asset vales of 5-8%," says analyst Sholto Maconochie in a note. "But this is more than priced in with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT trading at a 20% discount to net tangible assets, implying a 14% drop in asset values." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0740 GMT - Rio Tinto shares are down more than 20% year-to-date, making them attractively undervalued given the company's high quality, cash generative business, Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick writes in a research note. The Australian mining-major has seen consensus turn progressively more bearish over the past three years due to persistent concerns over the iron ore market and company-specific ESG and strategy issues, Fitzpatrick says. "We have trimmed back our near-term iron ore prices, but remain more bullish than consensus and see 30% total return potential on a 12-month basis," the analyst says. Deutsche lifts it rating on the stock to buy from hold, and its target price to 6,200 pence from 6,000 pence. (christian.moess@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires