Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 08 Jun 2023 15:10:28
Jimmy
one year ago

0507 GMT - Zip Co.'s latest round of liability management represents a meaningful step to managing the overhang of its outstanding convertible notes, RBC Capital Markets analysts say. The Australian buy-now-pay-later provider's incentivized conversion of, and amendments to, notes will reduce its corporate debt by A$192 million to A$330 million, the analysts tell clients in a note. The transactions are cash neutral, they add. RBC has a sector-perform recommendation and A$0.80 target price on the stock, which is in a halt at A$0.505. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0317 GMT - Weakening economic activity is likely to have a greater impact on Australian and New Zealand bank credit metrics in 2H, says Fitch Ratings in a note. It revises outlooks for those countries' banking sectors to deteriorating from neutral, which it says reflects greater headwinds against bank earnings and asset quality it expects in 2H, but also potentially into 2024. In Australia, Fitch sees net interest margins as having peaked late last year, with pressure on margins in 2H amid loan and deposit competition. Loan growth in Australia is also likely to slow amid higher rates. NZ is in a similar position, but Fitch says with RBNZ going harder on rates, unemployment may be larger than in Australia, with potentially greater risks to asset quality.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0305 GMT - GUD's relative earnings resilience amid a challenging macro environment is likely to be rewarded by investors, Wilsons analysts say in a note. They stay overweight on the stock, despite some possible sales softness associated with new vehicle supply and customer inventory management. The analysts tell clients that demand for GUD's vehicle parts and accessories remains robust, underpinned by the non-discretionary nature of the majority of products. Wilsons trims its target price by 2.6% to A$11.00 on slightly lower sales forecasts, but remains bullish on structural growth in demand for the larger vehicles that GUD supplies to. Shares are down 2.0% at A$8.38. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0222 GMT - Ebos's loss of a pharmaceutical supply contract with Chemist Warehouse's Australian chain is a blow but the medical supply company can mitigate at least some of the earnings impact, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients that Ebos can now refocus on equally meaningful opportunities within its existing stable, which includes pharmaceuticals, devices and animal care. They cut their FY 2025 Ebitda forecast by 9% on the loss of the Chemist Warehouse contract during 2024, but assume that Ebos can cut staff costs to help offset some of the impact. Macquarie maintains an outperform rating on the stock, but cuts its target price by 13% to NZ$41.85. Shares are down 0.3% at NZ$35.40. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0144 GMT - The operating expenses and capital expenditure guidance ASX provided at its recent investor day are above prior consensus expectations, says Morgans analyst Steven Sassine. He notes that these factors, alongside a revised dividend payout ratio at Tuesday's investor day, likely "underwhelmed the market, with the stock trading down around 10% on the day, in our view." Morgans cuts its FY 2024-FY 2026 EPS forecasts by around 4%-5% on the elevated expense growth guidance, while maintaining its relatively "benign revenue growth" profile. Morgans keeps a hold recommendation on the stock, and cuts its target price 8.9% to A$65.90. ASX rises 0.5% to A$61.71. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0123 GMT - Banks are likely to revise climate-related targets as new science emerges, says Siobhan Toohill, Westpac's chief sustainability officer. Speaking at an Australian Banking Association conference about the push to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius under the Paris agreement, Toohill says revisions are likely to be updated "sooner rather than later." At the same time, she says there is expectation that some countries may need to pull forward movement on national climate action plans to cut emissions. "The understanding is that it's going to take longer," for some countries, Toohill adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0122 GMT - Evolution Mining is approaching a sweet spot at its Cowal gold mine, says Canaccord Genuity following a recent visit to the operation in Australia's New South Wales state. In a note, analyst Tom Prendiville forecasts that Cowal will generate strong cash flow over FY 2024-FY 2026 as major capex ends and output rises to 320,000 oz/year. "Beyond FY 2026 to end of life-of-mine (in 2040) we are a little more conservative and forecast average production of 240,000 oz per annum," says Canaccord. It retains a buy call on Evolution's stock while raising its price target by 6.3% to A$4.20. Evolution is down 1.3% at A$3.465. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0042 GMT - Australian Finance Group faces increasing net interest margin pressure amid ongoing competition in the residential mortgage market and cash rate increases, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank forecasts AFG's 2H FY 2023 NIM to be 129 basis points, down 16bps versus 1H, and that NIMs are likely to stabilize between 120bps-125bps from 1H FY 2024. In the meantime, Macquarie sees that elevated run-off and reduced levels of new business, may see AFG's loan book contract around 10% in 2H FY 2023 versus the previous corresponding period, with A$1 billion in run-off and only A$400 million in new business origination.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0024 GMT - Ramelius Resources' FY 2024 could be an even better year than the current one, says Shaw & Partners. Ramelius this week signaled an extremely strong finish to FY 2023 as cost pressures ease and AUD-denominated gold prices stay strong. "If the gold price stays around A$3,000/oz then FY24 is likely to be a year for record margins and earnings for the company," analyst Andrew Hines says in a note. "We expect operating costs to drop back towards A$1,500/oz as the high-grade Penny operation becomes a large proportion of the mill feed." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0018 GMT - Premier Investments appears to be the discretionary retailer most at risk from stagnating top-line growth amid deteriorating macro conditions, say Goldman Sachs analysts. The analysts cut their recommendation to sell from neutral. Premier has the highest gross-profit margin of the discretionary retailers in GS's coverage and is therefore most sensitive to lease- and wage-cost pressures, they say in a note. But GS acknowledges that their forecasts across the sector are more pessimistic than those by many other analysts. GS cuts its target price by 17% to A$21.00 on lower EPS forecasts. Shares are 4.2% lower at A$20.91. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0015 GMT - Metcash's recent share-price drop leaves the Australian supermarket supplier looking fairly priced to Goldman Sachs analysts, who raise their recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell. They say in a note that their thesis, based on softness in hardware sales and market-share loss to Coles and Woolworths, is now largely priced in. Metcash shares are now trading at 13.3X 12-month forward earnings, they add. GS leaves its A$3.50 target price unchanged. Shares are up 2.0% at A$3.56. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2250 GMT -- Signs that valuations of property assets are falling at a slower rate than anticipated help to keep Citi bullish on Charter Hall. In a note, analyst Suraj Nebhani points to recent updates from Abacus and HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, which indicated cap rates expanded by around 13 basis points for convenience malls and around 19 bps for office. While cap rates may rise more, Citi thinks it could be slower than the 100 bps expansion implied by listed stocks. Also, valuations on unlisted assets typically move slower than what listed pricing indicates. "We see both of these points as positives for Charter Hall's earnings given it derives earnings from fees based on asset values," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0641 GMT - Baby Bunting's weak trading update leaves Macquarie analysts cautious on the stock heading into FY 2024. The analysts tell clients in a note that the midpoint of the baby-goods retailer's sales guidance for FY 2023, which ends July 2, is 4.7% below Macquarie's prior forecast. The analysts say they now anticipate FY 2023 sales at the bottom end of Baby Bunting's revised A$509 million-A$513 million guidance range. They lower their EPS forecasts for FY 2024 and FY 2025 by 26%, reflecting the downgrade and higher-than-expected operating costs. Macquarie cuts its target price by 37% to A$1.55 and stays neutral on the stock, which closed 7.8% lower at A$1.365. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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