0153 GMT - A softening outlook for coal prices leads Citi analyst Paul McTaggart to pare the bank's earnings forecasts for BHP, the world's top miner by market value. Citi has cut its Newcastle coal-price forecasts for 2023-2025 by up to 24% and its hard coking coal-price forecasts for the same years by up to 11%. "BHP FY23/24/25 Ebitda estimates are reduced 1%/5%/2% as we flow through our more bearish coal price view," McTaggart says in a note. Citi's 12-month price target on the stock drops to A$43.00 from A$43.50. It keeps a neutral rating. BHP is up 3.0% in Sydney at A$45.62/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0135 GMT - The Australian banking regulator's assessment that a 3% serviceability buffer when assessing mortgage applicants is appropriate given the current environment, says the country's Council of Financial Regulators. The council--which is comprised of the RBA, ASIC, The Treasury and APRA--says it has backed the latter's assessment given a "high degree of uncertainty and risks to the economic outlook." At the same time, the council notes that APRA will "continue to assess the appropriateness of macroprudential policy settings as economic and financial conditions evolve." The statement comes amid debate about whether it would be worthwhile to lower the buffer, a move that could it make easier for more applicants to refinance their home loans as they come off ultra-low rates. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0123 GMT - NextDC's planned Auckland data center offers attractive returns if the Australian company can find the demand, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients that the Auckland site is lower-risk than NextDC's other international expansion project in Kuala Lumpur. Auckland is expected to open with 10MW of capacity at an initial build cost of A$205 million and, if 90% utilized, could offer a pre-tax return on invested capital of 13%, the analysts say. Macquarie resumes coverage of the stock with an outperform rating and A$15.80 target price. Shares are up 0.7% at A$12.67. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0101 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises' strategy update leaves UBS analyst Shaun Cousins with questions on exactly how the Australian fast-food franchiser plans to improve sales. Cousins tells clients in a note that Domino's appears to have lost confidence with some consumers on pricing and he wonders about how consistently the company can execute plans to improve same-store sales growth, which is currently falling short of his forecast. He also points out that the path to improving franchisee profitability--which is important in driving growth in store numbers--is unclear. UBS plans to revisit its valuation model. It has a last-published neutral rating and A$60.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.4% at A$43.38. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0052 GMT - Rio Tinto's aluminum-replacement capacity and capex plans are broadly in line with what Morgan Stanley had expected, the bank's analysts say in a note. The miner earlier this week said it intends to invest $1.1 billion to expand its low-carbon aluminum smelter at Complexe Jonquiere, Canada, offsetting the gradual closure of potrooms at the Arvida smelter. "Importantly, Rio aims to have Elysis (carbon-free aluminum) available for installation from CY24 and the production of larger volumes of carbon-free aluminum [circa] 2 years later, and is working with the Canadian national and Quebec provincial governments, which is good news," say the analysts. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0049 GMT - Incitec Pivot's plan to separate its fertilizer and explosives businesses looks riskier against the backdrop of broader macro uncertainty, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says. He writes in a note to clients that there may be incremental upside value from the potential spinoff of the explosives manufacturing business, but highlights risks from a soft pricing environment. Incitec Pivot announced its plan more than a year ago and McTaggart thinks the timing for any separation has likely slipped. He estimates that the implied combined value of the two units is A$3.10, which is higher than Citi's current target price. Citi is neutral on the stock and trims the target price 4.8% to A$3.00. Shares are up 0.5% at A$2.785. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0000 GMT - ReadyTech's solid pipeline of local government and education customers and attractive levels of organic growth support a continued buy rating from Jefferies analysts. They tell clients in a note that the Australian software provider's appeal is based on increasing market penetration rather than expanding margins. They see it winning share from incumbents and keeping churn low. It doesn't have the sort of offshore potential offered by ASX-listed peer Technology One, but has potential to accelerate an already strong domestic annual organic growth rate of 15%. Jefferies trims its target price 2.6% to A$3.70. Shares last traded at A$3.07. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2303 GMT - Appen's China business looks undervalued compared with local peers, Jefferies analyst Wei Sim says. He says in a note to clients that Appen is trading at just 0.8 times fiscal 2022 sales, while rivals SpeechOcean and DataTang are trading at about 25 times and 9 times, respectively. Valuing Appen's China business, which is No. 2 to SpeechOcean in the local data-annotation market, at between 9 and 25 times sales would imply a market cap of US$300M-US$840M, Sim says. The whole of the Australian company is currently valued at about US$300M, he adds. Jefferies has a last-published hold rating and A$2.10 target price on the stock, which last traded at A$3.14. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2245 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises is likely to serve up an equity raise after a much larger-than-expected miss to earnings forecasts and store targets, Jefferies says. In a note, analyst Michael Simotas says a A$300 million equity raise would be prudent as this would take leverage down to 2.2 times. "While the group may remain under its 3.0x covenant in FY 2023, we believe a covenant breach is likely in 1H of FY 2024" if no action is taken, Simotas says. Jefferies cuts its price target by 20% to A$40/share. Domino's ended Tuesday at A$43.55. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2239 GMT - Zip's recent convertible-note restructuring highlights a lack of confidence from debtholders about the prospect of recouping their investment, Morningstar analyst Shaun Ler writes in a note. Ler tells clients that the Australian buy-now-pay-later operator's note restructuring represents a soft default, albeit one that is preferable to the dilutive equity raising that would have been necessary to repay debts in full. Zip still faces multiple headwinds including slowing consumer spending and the rising cost of funds, he adds. Morningstar maintains an extreme uncertainty rating and A$0.45 fair-value estimate on the stock, which last traded at A$0.50. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2237 GMT - Investors appear to be underestimating Cleanaway Waste Management's earnings momentum, says Jefferies, which is bullish on the stock. In a note, analyst Amit Kanwatia says Cleanaway's earnings have been less resilient than normal, given operational issues in the past 12-18 months. "However, the outlook has improved as operations are restored and as the benefits from strategic initiatives are being delivered," Jefferies says. "Next week management are expected to present their financial targets, which could highlight a low-teens CAGR Ebit growth rate over the next three years." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2234 GMT - Auto-parts specialist Bapcor likely isn't immune to Australia's tight jobs market, reckons Jefferies analyst John Campbell. In a note, he points to official data that shows near-record labor shortages across most sectors in the country. "This is particularly acute in the auto services sector with the CEO of the Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce Geoff Gwilym recently stating there's a 'huge deficit of auto mechanics'," Campbell says. "We expect this will continue to be a constraint on the auto aftermarket sector for the foreseeable future." The bank trims its FY 2023-2025 EPS forecasts for Bapcor by 2%, 3% and 3%, respectively. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1154 GMT - Thales is set to take over Australia-based cybersecurity firm Tesserent in what can be regarded as a good acquisition for the French aerospace-and-defense company, Jefferies analysts write in a research note. Thales's cash offer values Tesserent's equity at A$176 million, but the acquisition is subject to Tesserent's shareholders' approval and other customary conditions. The deal would hand Thales some 500 employees that Tesserent has across nine offices, expanding Thales's cybersecurity presence in Australia and New Zealand, the analysts note. Thales shares trade 0.7% higher at EUR132.30.(mauro.orru@wsj.com; @MauroOrru94)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires