Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 19 Jun 2023 15:00:30
Jimmy
one year ago

0147 GMT - An upgrade to reserves at Allkem's Mt. Cattlin spodumene mine, extending the life of that operation, improves the lithium miner's earnings outlook in the medium to long term, say Macquarie analysts. They consequently raise their price targets on Allkem's ASX and TSX shares by 5% to A$17.50 and C$15.80, respectively. "Interestingly, AKE has highlighted that Stage 4-2 could be developed including underground mining which could avoid the high strip ratio at depth," the analysts say in a note. Underground mining there could help further extend the mine's life by providing better access to other parts of the orebody, they add. In the near term, catalysts for the stock will likely come from updates on a proposal to merge with Livent, say the analysts. Allkem is up 0.4% in Sydney at A$15.935/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0100 GMT - Bravura's appointment of Andrew Russell as interim CEO after the company announced that Libby Roy would step down, likely provides it with a "safe pair of hands" as it navigates short-term challenges, say E&P analysts. They add that Roy's departure from the CEO role is "another churn event affecting an executive suite that has been highly unstable for some time," but that the market did have "low confidence" that Bravura could execute a turnaround under Roy. E&P has a neutral call on the stock and A$0.55 target. Bravura rises 1.1% to A$0.47. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0047 GMT - Breville keeps its buy rating from Goldman Sachs, with analysts tipping sales of premium coffee machines to be more resilient to weak consumer sentiment compared with other electronic appliances. The analysts tell clients in a note that Breville's strong new product development pipeline should support levels of growth above industry average. They trim sales forecasts for FY 2023 through FY 2025 on softer trends across key peers but nonetheless reiterate their buy rating. GS trims its target price 0.9% to A$22.50. Shares are up 1.0% at A$19.66. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0038 GMT - A turnaround in sentiment toward mining stocks has taken place over the past couple of weeks on the back of hopes for Chinese economic support, Jefferies analysts say in a note. They question whether the market is too hopeful. "We are somewhat concerned that China 'stimulus' could disappoint," say the analysts. Still, "we think it is dangerous to be short," they say, adding that they "continue to believe the risk/reward tradeoff in our preferred miners is positive." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0034 GMT - TPG Telecom shares would likely suffer if it fails in its appeal to share rival Telstra's mobile assets in parts of regional Australia, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the market's apparent expectation that the Australian Competition Tribunal will approve the deal means that failure, while less likely, could lead to a significant share-price reaction. There is execution risk on the asset-sharing arrangement but the deal would boost TPG's footprint in regional areas and is significant for its medium-term aspirations, they say. MS has an equal-weight rating and A$5.60 target price on the stock, which is down 0.1% at A$5.495. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2352 GMT - Telstra and TPG Telecom are likely to succeed in their appeal to be allowed to share mobile-network assets, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients that the Australian mobile operators' appeal to The Australian Competition Tribunal stands a 70% chance of success, although they think that the regulator is likely to impose some conditions. They point out that the tribunal--which can affirm, set aside or vary the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's original decision to reject the asset sharing--typically places more weight on public interest than on competition concerns. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2348 GMT - Investors are starting to turn their attention to the potential of Bank of Queensland's stock, despite the challenges it has faced recently, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank reckons BOQ may see investors start considering the buy case, due to the stock's cheap valuation and its 7.4% dividend yield. But Citi thinks that it possibly too early, with the optimal entry point yet to arrive. "BOQ is more susceptible to a deteriorating asset quality cycle, more exposed to deposit competition, whilst in the midst of a period of strong cost growth," Citi says. With BOQ potentially seeing more return on equity decline over the next three years, Citi prefers ANZ, upon which it has a buy rating. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2306 GMT - Optimism about Carsales.com's Brazilian investment helps to support the stock's continued buy rating from Jefferies analysts. They tell clients in a note that the Australian auto classifieds company's 70%-owned Webmotors is already a clear No.1 in Sao Paulo and has lots of opportunities to expand to smaller cities where there is no dominant player. Webmotors could help improve customer experience, and therefore demand, by offering vehicle inspection, they add. The analysts also see potential for Webmotors to improve average-revenue-per-user by increasing prices or offering additional depth products. Jefferies raises its target price 4.8% to A$27.96. Carsales ended last week at A$24.50. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2255 GMT - IAG looks to be focused on its margin and keeping policies, rather than new business over the short term, amid current cost pressures, say Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim in a note after the Australian insurer's investor day. GS keeps a neutral rating on IAG, which it says is due to ongoing caution on 2H margin guidance, with the investment bank seeing that IAG's margin trajectory into FY 2024 may not be as strong as underlying trends suggest. Still, GS reckons that premium rate and inflation trends bode well for FY 2024, but reinsurance renewals could impact any upside. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2249 GMT - Jefferies starts Aeris Resources at hold, arguing the miner's recent acquisition of Round Oak Minerals could be a drag on the stock for some time. While the bank's maiden A$0.60/share price target offers some 13% upside to Aeris's close of A$0.53 last week, Jefferies believes skepticism around operational delivery following the Round Oak deal and outstanding updates on Aeris's development projects will weigh on the share price in the short term. "Delivery to guidance should reconcile the discrepancy and dissipate the market discount," analyst Daniel Roden says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2244 GMT - Xero's price rises in Australian and New Zealand are larger than Goldman Sachs analysts had anticipated and suggest that FY 2024 average-revenue-per-user could be higher than the investment bank forecasts. The analysts tell clients in a note that they are particularly surprised by the 50% jump in price for Xero's starter plan. The price hikes could risk increasing customer churn but historically the sticky nature of the product has mitigated against this, they say. They add that competitors are also raising pricing. GS has a buy rating and A$130.00 target price on the stock, which ended last week at A$116.72. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2238 GMT - The pricing environment for IAG and Suncorp's home and motor businesses in New Zealand looks very strong, say Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim in a note. Pricing, they say, exceeds underlying claims inflation over recent months and likely covers the significant reinsurance cost pressures. "Across both IAG and Suncorp the key message is that rate is running into high double digit/20% type rate increases across home and motor," says GS after meeting with the insurer's NZ management teams. GS sees that IAG is pushing harder on rate than Suncorp, with the former being a little ahead of the market in their pricing response. NZ represents around 22% of IAG's net earned premium and around 17% of Suncorp's, GS notes. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2236 GMT - Packaging company Amcor's share price may now be nearing good value, Jefferies says, after tumbling around 16% since the start of this year. "But concern about further EPS downgrades is likely to continue to overshadow sentiment in the near term," analyst Richard Johnson says in a note. Jefferies, which keeps a hold call on Amcor's stock, highlights that a recent acceleration in the company's share buyback program hasn't supported the share price. Amcor needs to buy another 15 million shares this month to achieve its goal for repurchases worth $500 million. "There is no reason that the company won't hit this target, particularly given the fall in the share price," Johnson says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2230 GMT - Jefferies downgrades neighborhood mall owner Region to hold from buy, citing stiffening headwinds as its FY 2024 prepares to begin. Those headwinds include rising debt costs and slowing net operating income growth from increased property expenses, lower development spend, and a lack of acquisitions. "Whilst strong supermarket sales are positive, slowing discretionary spending and lack of FY 2024 growth will weigh on the stock," analyst Sholto Maconochie says in a note. Region ended last week at A$2.36, just below Jefferies's new A$2.45/share price target. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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