Forum Topics AOF AOF AOF valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

Dominator
Added 2 years ago

@PeregrineCapital flipping the discount to understand the cap rate you are receiving. Would I be right in saying the market is currently valuing AOF at a cap rate of 9.16%?

I get to this number from a property value of $316m with a cap rate of 5.74% giving a "net income" of $18.14m.

Current market cap = $238m, minus out the $40m cash to give $198m in assumed property value.

Cap rate = 18.14/198 = 9.16%

Any numbers above incorrect?

If not, seems like a decent rate of return, assuming office space can be leased out at expected rates, with some potential for additional gains from renovation/expansion as well. So not much downside risk due to valuation. I wouldn't want to be touching US office space at the moment (unless at a massive discount). While I don't think the US environment directly translates to the Australian market necessarily, the market might not be as keen on office space for a while as a result. What if the Aussie cash rate ends up at a terminal rate of around 4%, is a 9% cap rate fair value? What is the normal premium above the cash rate for office space?

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PeregrineCapital
Added 2 years ago

Hi Dominator,

Yep that looks sound. It's my understanding that the Cap Rate is typically based on the fully leased Net Rent. AOF's portfolio has some big vacancies, so net yield would be a fair bit lower.

As far as I understand it, Cap Rates normally correlate with 5-10 year bond yields more closely than the cash rate. the 10 year is currently at 4%. Typical spreads really depend on the quality of the asset, but 5% sounds pretty decent to me, given the the assets are a mix of A and B Grade.

As far as the investment case itself goes, I'm not banking on AOF producing much yield going forward, but I do think they will be able divest assets and return capital to shareholders in a timely manner. If sales get within 20% of current book values (which I expect will be marked down significantly in the FY23 results) and continue with any sort of velocity, the time weighted returns on offer are pretty captivating.

US office is a different ball game to Australia altogether.....



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