0151 GMT - All eyes are on the release Wednesday of Australia's monthly inflation indicator for May, given that the RBA has recently featured the data in its reasoning for raising interest rates. Ben Jarman, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at JPMorgan, expects the inflation report will reveal a moderation in price pressures, with the annual rate falling from 6.8% in April to 5.9% in May. An easing in price pressures around travel, fuel and in the retail sector will underpin the result, he says. Jarman says he still expects the RBA to deliver a further rate rise in July, but adds that the decision will be finely balanced. (James.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0115 GMT - The RBA's recent hawkish pivot risks skewering UBS's view that Australian consumption would slow but not collapse. The RBA raised cash rates by another 25 bps in June and UBS expects more increases. "The risk of an even weaker consumer increased materially," says economist George Tharenou in a note. UBS had expected Australian GDP growth to slow sharply to 0.75% year-over-year by 4Q, dragged down by weakness in consumption. It had also estimated the chance of recession at 25%. "But given companies updates imply a 'sudden stop' of spending in the last month, the economy is at a 'tipping point', and if the RBA keeps hiking, there is downside risk to our outlook, which would raise the risk of recession to 50%," Tharenou said. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0110 GMT - The departure of Appen's recently appointed chief financial officer surprised Jefferies analyst Wei Sim but doesn't alter his view of the stock. He points out that CFO Helen Johnson was the most recently appointed member of Appen's overhauled executive team, having been appointed on May 1. Nonetheless, Jefferies's hold recommendation and A$2.60 target price on the Australian data-annotation provider are unaffected. Sim remains of the view that the refreshed management team will have better potential to drive a medium-term turnaround. Shares are down 12% at A$2.28. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0106 GMT - Metcash's FY 2023 result looks stronger than the market had anticipated, but probably not by enough to shift expectations of an upcoming sales decline, E&P Financial retail analyst Phillip Kimber says. He tells clients in a note that the Australian supermarket supplier's underlying net profit of A$307.5 million was about 4% higher than he had forecast, and about 1% ahead of the average analyst forecast. Yet Kimber reckons that cost pressures, Metcash's warning of shifting consumer behavior, and an expectation of further slowing hardware sales means that analysts are unlikely to become more positive on the stock. The stock is up 4.3% at A$4.745. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0059 GMT - UBS thinks the market has too rosy a view around Stockland's residential sales and downgrades the stock to neutral from buy. In a note, UBS says it expects Stockland to settle around 5,200 lots in FY 2025, well below consensus expectations of 5,600 lots. "We also see significant risks in FY 2024 with 4,700 (consensus 5,200) a result of continued challenges with delivery and low sales rates," UBS says. "In our view customer demand will remain subdued for longer than usual (around 1,000 per quarter) given mortgage constraints flowing from higher interest rates and also a loss of confidence in home builders following the Porter David collapse." UBS sees Stockland's margins being squeezed as it cuts prices to drive volumes. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0053 GMT - Higher interest rates have likely deferred a recovery in Australian residential property, UBS says in a note. "We previously saw the preconditions build for a strong resi recovery with strong immigration driving population growth, low levels of vacancy and supply while employment remained strong," UBS says. However, inflation has been more persistent and this suggests rates will stay higher for longer, restricting the ability of buyers to obtain finance. UBS thinks apartments are well-positioned given relative affordability and strong rental growth. But it contends that "house and land is set to lag given more sensitivity to affordability (interest rates) and our expectation that home builders will remain under pressure, impacting customer confidence." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0050 GMT - Will Australian developers' build-to-rent pipelines still be viable in a higher interest rate world? UBS thinks so. But build-to-rent returns will mostly come from rent growth and asset management, rather than upfront development profit, UBS says in a note. "We see build to rent generating double digit internal rates of return to equity which is supportive of capital return hurdles," UBS says. "At scale, we see value in the management platform if operational efficiencies can be delivered." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires