I think the big issue is that if you're not a very sophisticated investor then you are a bit like cannon fodder to the Russian army. Brokers look after their heavy hitting mates and put them in early and in the best deal pre-ipo and some top up at IPO. These people have zero interest in the company being IPO'd in most/many instances so loyalty is in the next to nothing range.
I used to be a steady IPO investor and a few years ago there was dollars in it, but now ...no thanks. Too many people with much cheaper buy ins than me and cheap oppies.
Having done an IPO and invested in the past in quite a few, one of the things that wasn't mentioned is the ethics of the supporting broker/stock spruiker who is normally using the "what's in it for me" theory. They put in their clients and some really don't give a damn if the IPO is successful or not as they have free or cheap shares and often options which will be sold on market at whatever point they fancy.
Obviously some are better than others, but in the 20c listing world I think buyer beware is the mantra.
the below makes a lot of sense and is from Ely Griffith. it is a successful IPO criteria. the IPO process is often the biggest event in the sellers lives. it is crucial for them and all hands on deck to get a great price. unfortunately many are pigs with lipstick or extremely disappointing, as i have written about before. remember in the IPO process the info asymmetry is stark and against you. maybe worth keeping the below in your back pocket to avoid the hype!
The fund manager settled on five things: (for as successful IPO)
1) Passionate founders and management teams with a history of performing prior to listing.
2) Primary capital raised at the IPO used to fund growth initiatives that could be identified at the time of listing and outlined in the prospectus.
3) Consistent earnings growth prior to listing and through the forecast period, rather than a ‘‘hockey stick’’ rebound.
4) A proven business model with a history of good unit economics and even profitability.
5) Reliable prospectus forecasts that are based in solid fundamental growth, rather than an unsustainable period of good fortune.