Forum Topics IPO criteria
Rudyboy
one year ago

I think the big issue is that if you're not a very sophisticated investor then you are a bit like cannon fodder to the Russian army. Brokers look after their heavy hitting mates and put them in early and in the best deal pre-ipo and some top up at IPO. These people have zero interest in the company being IPO'd in most/many instances so loyalty is in the next to nothing range.

I used to be a steady IPO investor and a few years ago there was dollars in it, but now ...no thanks. Too many people with much cheaper buy ins than me and cheap oppies.

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edgescape
one year ago

I think having good contacts is probably the best way to get into pre-ipo opportunities. But you still need to do lots of research.

I was given an opportunity into a unlisted shopping centre income REIT that specialise in regional areas by my accountant years ago. She said you have to stump up dollars but if they plan to IPO I am guaranteed a capital gain as it will list at a premium to the unit price. Didn't take it though as I visited one of the shopping centres in regional NSW and didn't really like it. Although I probably could have made more effort looking at the fund managers and other assets in their books.

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Rudyboy
one year ago

Having done an IPO and invested in the past in quite a few, one of the things that wasn't mentioned is the ethics of the supporting broker/stock spruiker who is normally using the "what's in it for me" theory. They put in their clients and some really don't give a damn if the IPO is successful or not as they have free or cheap shares and often options which will be sold on market at whatever point they fancy.

Obviously some are better than others, but in the 20c listing world I think buyer beware is the mantra.

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Solvetheriddle
one year ago

the below makes a lot of sense and is from Ely Griffith. it is a successful IPO criteria. the IPO process is often the biggest event in the sellers lives. it is crucial for them and all hands on deck to get a great price. unfortunately many are pigs with lipstick or extremely disappointing, as i have written about before. remember in the IPO process the info asymmetry is stark and against you. maybe worth keeping the below in your back pocket to avoid the hype!

The fund manager settled on five things: (for as successful IPO)

1) Passionate founders and management teams with a history of performing prior to listing.

2) Primary capital raised at the IPO used to fund growth initiatives that could be identified at the time of listing and outlined in the prospectus.

3) Consistent earnings growth prior to listing and through the forecast period, rather than a ‘‘hockey stick’’ rebound.

4) A proven business model with a history of good unit economics and even profitability.

5) Reliable prospectus forecasts that are based in solid fundamental growth, rather than an unsustainable period of good fortune.


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Strawman
one year ago

I like that a lot @Solvetheriddle

If there's a proven business with clear growth opportunity, and insiders are retaining a significant ownership, an IPO makes a lot of sense and i'd be open to it.

Otherwise, it's a pass for me. Doesn't mean it cant be put on a watch list and revisited after some time has passed -- but generally there's no reason to rush in.


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Trancer
one year ago

I love this. I wish I knew this (and much more besides) before i took a punt on Raiz in 2018, before I woke up to the idea of investing.

Looking back on it now I realise that my investment thesis was: I really love what these folks are trying to do.

Shortly thereafter, George Lucas paid himself $1m from the proceeds, made some growth plays in Asia that have failed, and gave equity to 7 west media for a pathetic marketing campaign.

I guess i'm lucky to have made a relatively small investment for such a valuable lesson.

I don't wan't to let the dog go, just so I can be reminded, every time I open Sharesight, about the importance of effective due dilligience.

Thanks @Solvetheriddle for such a good post.

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edgescape
one year ago

I would add you need look at existing equity and holders of unlisted stock BEFORE the IPO and not just the underwriters as @Rudyboy mentioned

Unfortunately that detail is very hard to find in the prospectus and need to do a bit of math calcs which isn't trivial as each IPO listing is different.

So I would give an arm and a leg if someone can help us figure out the magic IPO formula in relation to unlisted equity.

I think this is the first thing to research before looking at the overall story and financials as detailed by @Solvetheriddle

There are countless times when investors go in only to be burnt by those existing holders wanting to make a quick buck.

If you want to look at a good example of a successful IPO, check out IPD Group IPO prospectus. Would have been good if I got into that IPO earlier instead of buy after the fact.

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Rudyboy
one year ago

You will find that most pre-IPO investors are escrowed for 2 years and it can be tricky to get some excused by ASX in an IPO, so you don't need to worry about them off-loading. Two years later is a different ball game but by then the IPO will have flown (I guess 20%) or tanked (80%). Hopefully if you bought at IPO then you would have a very good idea after two years what is going on.

The main issue is the mates who the brokers put in who have zero loyalty in many instances. I am not talking about the heavier hitters, but the flood of $5k people who make it up to the minimum who are only in it for a quick buck.

I think Strawman hit the nail on the head; there is not much reason to buy into an IPO as time will tell you and de-risk you or save you a small fortune.

Apologies to any brokers on the forum.

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edgescape
one year ago

Thanks for the points @Rudyboy

See my straw on Acusensus which is a example of an IPO with a good business but retail were the main losers. It disprroves some of the points in the post by @Solvetheriddle although I agree that business momentum is something you look for.

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edgescape
one year ago

Here's another one. The biggest IPO to date RDX at 1.3 Billion

Looked really good on first impressions and fulfils the criteria set by Ely Griffith. I only got to see the prospectus now after it closed oversubscribed.

But seems to have flopped.

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Maybe this list is a good starting point on successful debuts instead of looking at the IPO critiera? All full of lithium hopefuls. IPOs are definitely the too hard basket.


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