243 GMT - Rio Tinto's 2Q iron-ore shipments are likely to disappoint, Citi analysts say in a note. While the miner had a four-day disruption from a train derailment in June, "shipping data shows Rio shipments being weaker prior to the train derailment," say the analysts. Rio will also be coming off a particularly high run rate the quarter prior, they add. "While we don't expect Rio to revise up CY23 cost guidance at this stage (and noting guidance was struck off a USDAUD FX rate of US$0.70) we do expect costs to run to the upper end of guidance," the analysts say. Rio Tinto is scheduled to publish its 2Q production report on July 19 in Sydney. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0150 GMT - Ramelius Resources appears to be favoring a takeover of Musgrave Minerals over its own development options, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley, who says the deal could cast an unfavorable light on Ramelius's existing projects. He says the deal looks "potentially unnecessary" and also somewhat expensive. "While the synergy benefits are obvious, at this stage we do not necessarily find the acquisition strategy and its price compelling given [Ramelius's mine] Mt. Magnet already has a decent pipeline of mine options," Barkley says. Ramelius shares are down 1.2% at A$1.245. Musgrave is up 16% at A$0.33. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0117 GMT - Neuren remains on track to announce top-line data for the phase two trial of its Phelan-McDermid Syndrome treatment, with a positive outcome a powerful potential catalyst for shares, Wilsons analysts say. They tell clients in a note that positive top-line data in December would force the market to include the NNZ-2591 treatment in the Australian pharmaceutical company's valuation. This is not nearly represented at current levels, they say. Wilsons has an overweight rating and a A$18.29 target price on the stock, which is down 0.65% at A$12.17. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0110 GMT - Australian house prices have been rising solidly for four months in a row, despite an increasing headwinds from higher interest rates, says Ryan Felsman, an economist at CommSec. The upswing boosted sentiment for ASX-listed homebuilders and materials companies in 2Q. Shares of James Hardie, Brickworks, Boral and CSR have gainedbetween 13.5% and 25% in the past three months, he says. But housing-linked retailers like Harvey Norman are facing headwinds from rising cost-of-living pressures and higher borrowing costs. The big-box retailer's shares fell 2.8% in 2Q, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com ; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0107 GMT - United Malt's entry into a takeover scheme with Malteries Soufflet is an encouraging outcome for shareholders given that the Australian company downgraded its guidance after the initial approach, Wilsons analysts say in a note. They tell clients that Malteries Soufflet could have reduced its proposed A$5.00/share offer price or even walked away following the downgrade. Wilsons has a last-published A$4.45 target price and a market-weight rating on the stock, which is up 9.0% at A$4.795. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0022 GMT - The International Monetary Fund's US$3 billion rescue loan to Pakistan reduces the likelihood of further interest-rate rises in the country, which is good news for Australia's Frontier Digital Ventures, Bell Potter analyst Michael Ardrey says. He tells clients in a note that stabilizing rates could help avoid further deterioration of operating conditions for the Australian online classifieds investor's part-owned property site Zameen. He stops short of calling the bailout a tailwind, but says it is a positive development as Zameen faces volume challenges from heightened borrowing costs. Bell Potter maintains a buy rating and A$0.83 target price on the stock, which is down 0.6% at A$0.3925. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0017 GMT - Australian banks have largely removed cashbacks for mortgage refinancing which has improved their home loan profitability, Macquarie analysts say in a note. But, they reckon that lenders are currently writing new business above their cost of capital, after a period of intense competition which drove pricing below banks' required rate of return. While more rational pricing is positive for profitability, Macquarie estimates that current new mortgage rates remain 20-35 basis points below the older loan rates. Given the increased level of refinancing activity Macquarie expects margin compression in mortgages to persist in 2H FY 2023 and FY 2024.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2358 GMT - Link's loss of its contract with Hesta raises the prospect that more superannuation funds could seek outsourced administration services from other operators, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says. He cuts his recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy, pointing out in a note to clients that other large contracts are due for renewal over the next few months. He reckons that a takeover remains a possibility and acknowledges the possibility that the stock is offering value but says it is hard to be confident on this. Citi cuts its target price by 35% to A$1.60. Shares last traded at A$1.67. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

2334 GMT - Australian mortgage growth was resilient, with refinancing still at elevated levels in May, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. The extent of any slowdown will likely become clearer in the September quarter, they say in an analysis of regulator data covering bank loans for May. Home loan growth was resilient at around 4% in May. For the banks, mortgage growth rates at CBA and Bendigo are tracking broadly in line with MS forecasts as the end of 2H FY 2023 approaches. "Separately, ANZ, NAB and Westpac are tracking ahead of our estimates," it says. On refinancing, external mortgage refinancing has doubled from pre-Covid levels and remains elevated, while household deposit growth was soft in May, MS adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2333 GMT - ANZ has claimed the position of market leader in net mortgage flow in May, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note analyzing regulator banking data. The APRA data for May correlates with recent UBS research, he says, adding that ANZ continues to make inroads in mortgages and is regaining lost market share. "ANZ is currently growing at 1.7 times system, on a three-month view, and captured 23% of net mortgage flow in May," says UBS. For other lenders in May, Macquarie had a softer month, while ANZ, Suncorp and Judo, albeit from a smaller base, showed the quickest growth during this period, UBS says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires