0405 GMT - Paine Schwartz's proposal for Costa Group looks opportunistic and represents only a modest premium for the Australian fruit grower, Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape says. He points out that Paine Schwartz bought an initial 14% stake in October, when Costa was undervalued following a series of earnings downgrades linked to citrus-crop quality. The crop issues weren't expected to repeat, Snape says in a note. Paine Schwartz paid A$2.60 a share and is offering A$3.50 for each of the shares it doesn't already own. Bell Potter raises the target price by 17% to A$3.50, in line with the offer price, and downgrades its recommendation to hold from buy. Shares are down 0.75% at A$3.315. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0342 GMT - Investors may more fully appreciate Rio Tinto's copper business when the mining giant opens its Oyu Tolgoi site to analysts this month, Morgan Stanley analysts reckon. They say in a note that the site visit is likely to provide greater confidence in the progress to date at one of the largest known copper-and-gold deposits, as well as regulatory considerations in Mongolia and potential upside beyond the existing mine plan. Rio Tinto's copper production volumes are already set to grow by 10% over the next five years, they add. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on the stock and trims the target price 2.0% to A$124.00. Shares are flat at A$114.15. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0227 GMT - New data for Australian retail wealth funds flows for the March quarter supports UBS's view that the retail wealth platforms industry is continuing to fragment, says analyst Scott Russell. UBS notes that almost every player experienced weaker flows in the March quarter versus the previous corresponding period. Within the sector, UBS retains a preference for specialists Netwealth and Hub24. Due to their still-low penetration levels, they have a long runway for growth relative to incumbents Insignia and AMP. UBS has a buy call on Netwealth and Hub24, a neutral on Insignia and a sell on AMP. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0153 GMT - Australian wealth platforms Netwealth and Hub24 are likely to see another weak quarter of flows in 4Q, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank lowers forecast 4Q flows for Hub24 to A$2.1 billion from A$2.6 billion, and to A$2.5 billion for Netwealth from A$3 billion. Citi says this reflects lower client activity levels and increased allocation to term deposits. "While we continue to expect net flows to bounce back in FY 2024, timing is uncertain, and we assume that flows continue to be weak in 1H FY 2024," Citi adds. It is neutral on both stocks but prefers Hub24 from a valuation standpoint. It cuts Hub24's stock target price 1.8% to A$29.60 but raises Netwealth's 0.4% to A$14.00. Hub24 was recently at A$26.15 and Netwealth at A$13.86. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0131 GMT - The takeover premium on Paine Schwartz's approach for Costa Group could be a little low, say Macquarie analysts. While the A$3.50-a-share proposal represents an improvement on the price discussed during initial talks, it implies only an 8% premium on long-term average Ebitda multiples of the past three years, they tell clients in a note. More positively, they point out that a successful takeover would eliminate the risk that the Australian produce grower cannot deliver on the 21% improvement in 2023 earnings needed to meet Macquarie's forecasts. Macquarie raises target price by 20% to A$3.43 and cuts its recommendation to neutral from outperform. The stock is 1.05% lower at A$3.305. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0114 GMT - Lindsay Australia's expansion of its rural footprint helps drive Morgans analysts' improved earnings upgrades for the logistics provider. They tell clients in a note that the acquisition of rural merchandising business WB Hunter expands Lindsay's reach beyond its core market in Queensland state into the more populous states of NSW and Victoria. The analysts lift EPS forecasts for both FY 2024 and FY 2025 by about 6% and reckon that the acquisition gives Lindsay's rural business the ability to scale within one of Australia's core horticulture, dairy and mixed farming regions. Morgans lifts its target price 11% to A$1.55 and maintains an add rating on the stock, which is up 8.9% at A$1.22. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0106 GMT - Charter Hall's valuation remains compelling despite potential near-term headwinds for the property investor's funds under management and earnings, Citi analysts say in a note. The stock has priced in a lot of negatives and an improved outlook later in the year, combined with better pricing outcomes on office assets, could drive strong share-price performance over the next 12 months, they say. Transaction activity has picked up in recent months and buyer confidence could improve once there are signs that Australia's central bank has finished raising interest rates, they add. Citi trims target price by 7.5% to A$13.50 on slower-than-expected near-term transaction activity but keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is 0.9% higher at A$11.21. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0056 GMT - Telstra regains its buy rating from UBS on a surprising level of tolerance from customers for its mobile price rises. Analyst Lucy Huang says in a note that a UBS survey indicates that consumers are more ready to absorb price rises than she had anticipated. Telstra has gained slight share in its main brand and customer churn expectations are decreasing, suggesting that the ASX-listed giant is the most resilient among local providers, she says. UBS lifts target price by 3.3% to A$4.75 and raises its recommendation to buy from neutral. Shares are up 0.8% at A$4.345. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0045 GMT - The market is failing to fully appreciate the ability of Seek's dynamic pricing model to improve the pace of longer-term price growth at the Australian job advertiser, UBS analyst Lucy Huang says. She tells clients that UBS's proprietary industry tracker shows Seek's annual price growth grew from an average 11% in the six months through June to 21% in July. The strong start to the new fiscal year prompts UBS to raise its revenue, Ebitda and EPS forecasts for the company for both FY 2024 and FY 2025. This takes into account some impact from worsening macro conditions, Huang adds. UBS raises the stock's target price 0.4% to A$27.80 and maintains a buy rating. Shares are up 1.8% at A$22.195. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

0031 GMT - Suncorp's FY 2024 reinsurance renewal reveals a large increase in catastrophe allowance and capital requirement, in line with what Citi expected, analyst Nigel Pittaway says in a note. The investment bank had anticipated that the Australian general insurer would enter FY 2024 without the protection of aggregate cover, and with a higher maximum event retention for a first large event. It questions whether the FY 2024 allowance is high enough, but reckons that the cyclone-reinsurance pool impact may be relevant. "Overall, we do not see this as materially changing the Suncorp investment case but it again highlights that the era of low retentions for Australian insurers is over and there is now more risk on primary insurers'...books," says Citi. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0011 GMT - Even though retail deposit price competition at Australian banks eased in the June quarter, customers shifting into term deposits from at-call deposits is likely to be an important driver of banks' margins, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They note that the low interest-rate environment resulted in a shift away from term deposits at major banks, but industry feedback suggests a current trend of depositors moving to term deposits amid a higher rate environment. "In our view, deposit pricing and mix will remain a margin headwind until mix shift has run its course," says MS, believing that every 2-percentage-point shift away from transaction accounts could reduce margins by around 5-6 basis points. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2342 GMT - Suncorp's FY 2024 reinsurance renewal is towards the bottom end of expectations, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They add that catastrophe retentions and reinsurance costs were well managed but the lack ofaggregate cover, a higher catastrophe budget, lower capital and 10%-12% FY 2024 margin commentary, not guidance, are likely headwinds. Still, given the fact that the insurer's premium pricing remains well ahead of inflation, the market may look past these issues. The next key date for Suncorp is the July 28 ACCC decision on the insurer's bank unit sale.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2333 GMT - Suncorp's FY 2024 reinsurance renewal appears to be prioritizing margin protection over capital, say Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim in a note. The renewal may be focused on protecting margin towards 10%-12% over capital/risk retention, against the backdrop of a potentially improving catastrophe environment and outlook, they say. Suncorp may also have a limited appetite or ability to pass through higher reinsurance costs to customers in the context of already very strong direct pricing. GS reckons that Suncorp's FY 2024 margin expectations of between 10%-12% unchanged may partly reflect the insurer's expectation for higher reinsurance costs.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0627 GMT - Mach7 Technologies' contract with the U.S. Veterans Health Administration materially grows the Australian healthcare tech provider's recurring revenue base, Shaw & Partners analyst Jules Cooper says. Cooper writes in a note to clients that the contract eases Mach7's way to raising sufficient recurring revenue to cover its cash operating expenses for the next few years. In time it could pave the way for expansion into Veterans Affairs' hospital network and the broader U.S. public health sector, Cooper adds. Shaw & Partners will likely review its buy rating and A$1.30 target price when Mach7 reports its 4Q results. Shares closed 10% higher at A$0.81. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

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0621 GMT - Mach7 Technologies' contract with the U.S. Veterans Health Administration is likely to be followed by other significant agreements for the Australian healthcare tech provider, Morgans analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the A$60 million contract should ease longstanding investor concerns about Mach7's uneven cash flows and lack of progress toward securing new top-tier contracts. Mach7's contract is the largest in radiology software that the analysts have seen across the sector in the last few years. Morgans maintains an add rating on the stock and lifts the target price 25% to A$1.67. Shares closed 10% higher at A$0.81. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires