From GS's report:
Removing the LiOH exposure increases our FY24 EBITDA (due to our spodumene vs. LiOH price forecasts; similar effect on EBITDA as with the recent removal of the Mt Marion toll LiOH processing with Ganfeng JV), and removing the A$1bn payment is also positive for the balance sheet, with net debt now peaking at A$2.2bn in FY25E vs. our prior A$3.7bn. However, removing the life of mine (LOM) LiOH production from Wodgina has reduced our NAV by ~A$13/sh, the opposite effect of when we included the Chinese LiOH exposure which we valued the investment at ~A$2bn or ~A$10/sh NAV
We adjust our FY23/24/25 EPS by -9%/+18%/+13% after adjusting our 4Q FY23 Lithium chemicals pricing for Wodgina, and removing loss making Wodgina LiOH production across FY24-FY25. Our NAV is down 22% to A$47.6/sh (from A$61.4/sh) after divesting Kemerton and removing Wodgina LiOH toll treating from life of mine, but including A$500mn in value for a potential future LiOH plant in Australia. Our 12m PT is down 5% to A$57.0/sh (from A$60.0/sh)
and their reasoning for their Sell rating:
- Fully valued vs. peers and downside to revised PT
- Lithium price expected to decline further from 2H23-25
- Positive medium term volume growth but low/negative FCF across FY24E & FY25E