Hadn't seen that transaction but honestly not surprised. Lev runs ANO like a private company and not a public one.
Everytime I think I'm done with this stock Lev buys more piquing my interest once again. He now owns close to 50% of the equity. Really quite incredible never seen anything like it. Anyone know any other stocks where insiders have had such an insatiable desire for on market purchases and it not work out well?
@Rapstar re: Ethical Zinc in Coles – I saw the Coles deal yesterday and thought it strange that ANO wouldn't release something to market, which got me thinking about whether it would have a material impact on sales. So here's what I calculated, happy to be corrected if anyone spots an error or can improve on my assumptions. (TL,DR; looks immaterial in the short term to me, but interesting nonetheless).
Each tube of Ethical Zinc contains about 22g of Zinc from ANO (220mg/g), which gives the following:
Assume 25m people in Oz, with the average family size at about 2.5 people. That’s 10m families.
Assume each family/group needs to buy sunscreen 2 times a year on average.
Coles has about 90 sunscreen products on its shelf, so let’s assume very roughly that there is a 1 in 90 chance that Ethical Zinc will be chosen.
Divide by 2, to account for another major retailer who doesn’t stock it. (I’m excluding stockists such as pharmacies and online for this).
Each tube contains 22g of Zinc powder.
So, we get:
10,000,000 x 2 / 90 / 2 x 22g = 2,444,444g OR = 2,444kg.
At say, $25/kg, that’s $61,000 p/a.
There are many variables that would tweak this number, but even if we assume I'm wrong by a factor of 10, it's 'still' only $600k, so not enough to move the needle. This is before costs as well.
Not sure how the deal with Coles would be structured, but even if Coles needed to buy tubes in advance as a 'loading dose', then it still wouldn't be a game changer. There are 807 Coles stores in australia, let's say they all buy a dozen as a start. Then we get: 22g x 12 tubes x 807 stores = 2,130,480g OR 2,130kg ($53,000).
I think what it does signal – and why I topped up yesterday – is that zinc is being taken more seriously as a mainstream choice. This could just be the beginning of a very long tailwind.
Edit: spelling.