0242 GMT - Among Australian healthcare companies, health service providers are most likely to fall short of any fiscal 2024 guidance, Citi analysts warn clients. They say Ramsay Health Care, Australian Clinical Labs, Healius and Integral Diagnostics are most at risk, as the combination of protracted volume recovery and elevated wage inflation will probably keep weighing on margins. Their EPS forecasts for the four companies sit below analysts' average. Longer-than-anticipated margin recovery is also a factor for CSL and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0217 GMT - IPH's defensive qualities and its current discount to its longer-term earnings multiple justify a continued overweight rating from Morgan Stanley heading into Australia's reporting season. MS analysts say in a note to clients that the intellectual-property services provider is trading at about 17X fiscal 2024 earnings, which represents a 15% discount to its eight-year average. This risk-reward is attractive, they say. The analysts add that patent filings tend to be resilient through economic cycles and that investors should rotate into more defensive stocks if the macro backdrop remains challenging. MS has a A$10.50 target price on the stock, which is up 1.65% at A$8.03. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0202 GMT - NIB may deliver a solid FY 2023 result, reflective of the insurer's and the private health insurance sector's recent favorable industry trends, as well as support from international students and workers, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway. "We also continue to expect NIB to achieve its guidance for Australian Residents Health Insurance and NZ policyholder growth," he says in a note. But while NIB retains its defensive appeal, Citi reckons it is now trading on relatively expensive multiples, especially given the likely downward trajectory of ARHI margins beyond FY 2023. Citi thereby downgrades NIB to neutral from buy.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0146 GMT - QBE's stock looks cheap, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says in a note as the investment bank maintains a buy call on the insurer. While topline growth is strong and higher investment yields continue to benefit, the number of things that continue to surprise negatively still irk Citi, and seem to run against management's aim of building a less volatile business, he says. But as these can now be absorbed in QBE's original guidance, that suggests that the company's earnings stream is more resilient, feeding into the view that the stock is inexpensive, with potential for further upside as results continue to improve, Citi says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0128 GMT - The Australian competition regulator could still provide a favorable verdict on ANZ's proposed acquisition of Suncorp's bank, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says in a note, adding that the investment bank remains "optimistic of a positive ACCC decision." Citi reckons that if that eventuates, Suncorp's stock could recover some of its recent underperformance versus IAG. "However, there is clearly risk of a different, more adverse, outcome," says Citi. Ahead of Suncorp's FY 2023 results, Citi says it would "be surprised if Suncorp fails to deliver on its FY 2023 underlying insurance margin guidance of 10-12%." Citi has a buy call on the stock.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0118 GMT - There is some risk that IAG's FY 2024 guidance may not be as strong as Citi's 14.6% margin forecast, analyst Nigel Pittaway says in a note. While investors seem to have warmed to IAG's level of premium rate increases above non-catastrophe claims inflation, Citi reckons that the catastrophe impact overlay on this will be significant. "We expect the combination of a significantly higher weather allowance and pricier reinsurance will be a more than 400-basis-points headwind for FY 2024 margins before allowing for repricing/higher yields," it says. A further release from IAG's business-interruption provisions could mean excess capital, it adds. Citi has a buy call on IAG. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0059 GMT - Australian private health insurers should see supportive industry conditions, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. He attributes this view to a high level of participation and currently subdued claims. At the same time, overseas students, workers and travel trends should help, but Pittaway notes stock prices largely reflect this. For NIB, Citi expects another strong FY 2023 result, with the investment bank's estimates for that time period above Institutional Brokers' Estimate System consensus. Rival Medibank, which looks to be back on track post 2022's cyberattack, is likely to see its FY 2024 outlook make some allowance for slowing industry growth and claims recovery, Citi says. It is neutral rated on both stocks. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0044 GMT - Medibank looks to be tracking well from an operational perspective after the loss of policyholders following the cyberattack in 2022, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. He adds that Citi's FY 2023 earning estimates for Medibank are above the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System estimates. While the impact of class actions and regulatory reviews remains difficult to assess, Medibank's trends look good, with likely further growth in the non-residents' business and a strong net margin for the residents' business. "We expect its FY 2024 outlook to make some allowance for slowing industry growth and claims recovery," Citi says. It has a neutral call on Medibank.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0041 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises' delivery outlook still seems challenging despite the recent removal of a service fee helping slow the decline in volumes, UBS analyst Shaun Cousins says. The fast-food franchiser faces strong competition from rival offers on bundles, drive-through and loyalty programs. Delivery also remains under pressure from slowing consumer demand, he adds. Cousins also points out that catalysts for Domino's in the U.S. aren't necessarily present in Australia, where it has no loyalty program. UBS maintains a A$40.00 target price and sell rating on the stock, which is up 1.9% at A$48.20. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0031 GMT - Carsales.com should be able to grow domestic revenue by more than 10% in fiscal 2024 amid resilient demand for both new and used cars, UBS analyst Lucy Huang says. She tells clients in a note that constrained inventory levels relative to demand are keeping used-car prices about 30%-35% above pre-Covid levels, which supports dealer profit margins and should allow Carsales.com to push through mid-single-digit price rises. March and April price increases in the U.S. and Brazil are another positive and there is further upside to yield growth from dynamic pricing, she adds. UBS maintains a buy rating on the stock and lifts the target price 4.6% to A$27.20. Shares are up 0.3% at A$24.06. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0027 GMT - Australian general insurers are likely to have good times ahead, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. The recent strong premium rate rises should take time to fully earn through for insurers, but when this happens alongside potentially receding claims inflation, companies should benefit. Despite some near-term headwinds that include higher reinsurance costs and some claims inflation, underlying margin trends should be mostly positive near term, even with weather allowance overruns, Citi says and remains positive on the sector. It has buy calls on QBE, Suncorp and IAG.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0022 GMT - Toll-road operator Transurban's pricing power is re-emerging as Australian inflation moderates, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients that the ASX-listed company's pricing power is likely to become even more evident in fiscal 2024 as quarterly CPI falls from recent peaks. This will help assets including Transurban's Citylink and M2 deliver real price growth. On top of this, passenger traffic at airports is up about 20% on-year, they add. Macquarie raises target price 0.7% to A$14.82 and maintains an outperform rating on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$14.14. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2317 GMT - The Defined Benefit Pension Market presents a significant opportunity for Challenger, says the Australian financial company in a regulatory filing. It attributes this view to the fact that a growing number of corporate pension plans and superannuation funds are looking to de-risk their defined benefit liabilities. Challenger today announced that it would help de-risk Australian pension fund Aware Super's defined benefit fund, via the provision of a group lifetime annuity policy valued at A$619 million, in what Challenger says is the biggest annuity buy-in in Australia. "The transaction further reinforces the breadth of retirement income needs that Challenger can support across the superannuation industry," says Challenger CEO Nick Hamilton. "With the Australian savings market now very focused on retirement, the opportunity for Challenger to support the industry with guaranteed income solutions, managed and regulated in Australia, is significant." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires