2347 GMT - To get a sense of how investors are approaching coal M&A, look at New Hope's stock performance after it exited the bidding process for BHP's Daunia and Blackwater mines. Morgans analyst Tom Sartor notes that New Hope has outperformed all of its competitors in 2023, which shows the market is clearly favoring returns over growth in coal. "Stanmore, Coronado and Whitehaven look partially discounted for perceived acquisition risk for the assets," Morgans says. Whitehaven is widely seen as a front-runner for the mines, which could be worth A$5 billion-A$7 billion. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2314 GMT - A reduced probability of ANZ acquiring Suncorp's banking business is likely to provide support for ANZ's share price in the near term, Morgan Stanley says. Australia's competition regulator last week rejected the proposed A$4.9 billion deal, although ANZ can ask the Australian Competition Tribunal to review its decision. "In our view, the strategic rationale and financial implications of the acquisition are not compelling, given modest financial benefits, long-dated synergies and the complexity of the retail bank transformation and integration," analyst Richard E. Wiles says in a note. "However, if the transaction does not proceed, we think ANZ could announce a buyback of more than A$4 billion." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2259 GMT - Collins Foods gets a new bull in Citi, which thinks its Ebitda will nearly double to A$407 million by FY 3031, from FY 2023. The key driver of earnings is the rollout of KFC in the Netherlands and Australia, says Citi, which attaches a maiden price target of A$12.80/share to Collins Foods' stock. "We think the strength of the KFC brand globally will help drive sales in an uncertain environment," Citi says. It outlines three short-term risks, including higher costs of food and labor. It also highlights uncertainty around the success of Taco Bell, and intensifying competition in Australia's fast-food sector. Collins Foods ended last week at A$10.12. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2246 GMT - A key focus of investors in Telstra's FY 2023 result will be whether the telecoms company revises a target of reducing costs by A$500 million by FY 2025, Goldman Sachs says. Telstra is due to report annual earnings on Aug. 17, and GS expects a result toward the top of its guidance range. Still, Telstra is battling inflationary pressures that could drive a change to its medium-term cost target. GS says the goal has become incrementally more challenging since February, but it highlights that Telstra recently announced layoffs that will save A$50 million-A$60 million annually. Also, GS says in a note that "recent AI developments could provide further digitisation benefits for Telstra over time, noting Telstra and Microsoft have a close relationship, including signing a 5-year strategic agreement in 2022." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2235 GMT - Building materials supplier James Hardie is likely to beat the top end of 1Q underlying net profit guidance of $145 million-$165 million, says Jefferies, which expects similar profits in 2Q. "New U.S. housing demand has bounced earlier and harder than we had expected, and cost relief for pulp and freight looks material," analyst Simon Thackray says in a note. Jefferies now expects a 1Q underlying profit of $167 million. "Unless something more sinister has happened in Repair & Remodel (65% of exteriors volume) than we have forecast, managements' expectation of 680-710mmsf in North America volume looks 10% too light," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2228 GMT - Aeris Resources is likely to experience further balance sheet stress over FY 2024, despite recent moves to ease pressure on its cash position, says Jefferies analyst Daniel Roden in a note. Aeris recently placed the Jaguar operation on care and maintenance, which Jefferies considers to be a rational decision but one that removes A$19 million from its net present value estimate. Aeris has also secured a A$50 million working capital facility. "Continued cost inflation and an expectation of sustained base metals weakness in the near-term see further balance sheet support required in our view," Jefferies says. "Continued skepticism of operational delivery should weigh on the share price until market conditions improve." Jefferies cuts its price target by 55% to A$0.25/share. Aeris ended last week at A$0.23. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires