Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 08 Aug 2023 15:00:09
Jimmy
one year ago

0445 GMT - Woodside Energy's sale of a 10% stake in its Scarborough gas field to LNG Japan is positive for the Australian producer in multiple ways, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets. They say in a note that the US$500 million purchase price for the stake is set at a premium to their valuation for the asset. They also like that the deal involves a potential LNG offtake and collaboration opportunities. It reduces future development expenditure and technical risk, helping de-risk Woodside's exposure to its high level of equity in Scarborough, they add. RBC has a sector perform and A$31.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$38.38. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0351 GMT - Altium's introduction of a new pricing tier aimed at single-license users raises concerns at Citi about the Australia-listed software provider cannibalizing its own sales. Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed sees potential for the new tier to expand the printed-circuitboard specialist's addressable market but points out that about 35% of Altium's current customer base is 1-2 seaters. Altium contends that it hasn't seen any cannibalization to date and that it will be vigilant on license compliance, but Ahmed says in a note that the Altium Designer product is apparently quite popular with contractors who would typically be single-license users. Citi has a neutral rating and A$39.30 target price on the stock, which is up 0.2% at A$37.91. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0200 GMT - NextDC looks well-placed to benefit from an emerging new wave of investment large-scale providers of cloud services, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that they are incrementally more positive that the Australia-listed data-center operator can capitalize on imminent demand in Melbourne from Amazon and Microsoft. They cite supporting factors including construction delays from peers. The GS analysts expect Ebitda to rise by 17% on year in fiscal 2023 and by 10% in fiscal 2024. GS maintains a buy rating on the stock and lifts the target price 12% to A$16.80 after rolling forward to fiscal 2025. Shares are up 0.2% at A$12.885. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0136 GMT - ResMed's 4Q margins were hit by what looks like altruism to Morgans analysts, who see the breathing-tech company prioritizing demand fulfillment over short-term profit. ResMed's 4Q net profit was about 7% lower than Morgans had anticipated and the analysts point to higher inventory component costs and an unfavorable product mix. Yet they tell clients in a note that margins are likely to improve through fiscal 2024 as headwinds abate and that the market shouldn't look poorly on ResMed's decision to expand its installed base and franchise customers. Morgans keeps an add rating on the stock and trims the target price 2.2% to A$36.95. Shares are down 1.8% at A$28.87. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0127 GMT - Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY 2024 earnings guidance was lower than expected while its gearing levels are creeping higher, Ord Minnett says. The REIT forecast an FY 2024 opening EPS of 26.0 Australian cents/security, missing Ord Minnett's expectation of 28.1 cents. "Moreover, look-through gearing has crept up to 40.1% predominantly due to valuation losses," analyst Leanne Truong says in a note. The REIT reported valuation losses of 10% across its portfolio which includes assets acquired through the takeover of ALE Property Group. "We believe gaming regulations have had an impact on Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's Hospitality valuations which account for 22%" of its portfolio, Ord Minnett says. The units are down 4.7% at A$3.84, a new multi-year low. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0052 GMT - Domain's loss of its CFO to TPG Telecom is no cause for alarm and easily explained by his extensive experience in telecommunications, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel says. John Boniciolli has only been CFO at Domain for six months but Samuel tells clients that he has already improved earnings visibility and cost control at the Australian real-estate classifieds advertiser. Domain should be able to deliver on its FY 2023 operating-expense guidance and Jefferies remains comfortable with its FY 2024 forecast for A$270.5 million in opex, Samuel says in a note. Jefferies keeps a buy rating and A$4.38 target price on the stock, which is up 2.3% at A$4.01. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0043 GMT - Global Lithium Resources could bring forward cash flow by up to two years by selling direct ship ore to China, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the proposal presents material upsides to their base-case forecasts for the Australian miner. They are waiting on results of feasibility studies before incorporating sales into their forecasts, but see strong potential positives from the proposal. Macquarie maintains an outperform rating and A$3.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$1.74. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0005 GMT - Challenger is likely to continue to focus on margin accretive sales given a favorable sales environment for higher margin retail annuities, Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim say in a note. At the same time, GS sees the Australian financial company is likely to continue to put in place alternative distribution channels across its defined benefit offerings, for example, its annuity partnerships with pension funds, like TelstraSuper. Ahead of Challenger's FY result next week, GS reckons that normalized net profit before tax guidance for FY 2024 will be key, adding that GS's call is for A$574 million ex-bank, implying around 10% growth on its FY 2023 ex-bank estimates.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2356 GMT - Coronado Global Resources' 2Q underlying profit is 7% above market expectations and 11% higher than Barrenjoey's forecast, analysts from the Australian investment bank say in a note. They say the beat is underpinned by a lower-than-expected tax rate of 19.4%, which compares to Barrenjoey's estimate of 26.4%. However, the miner "only declared its minimum biannual fixed dividend of 0.5 [U.S. cents per share] which was well below [Barrenjoey] and consensus of 4.0cps and 3.4cps," the analysts say. Barrenjoey remains neutral on Coronado, which last traded at A$1.645/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2348 GMT - Insignia has shown that it has a clearer pathway to drive cost efficiencies and simplify its business model, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. This is a driver in MS having the Australian company as its pick of the country's wealth management sector, over peers AMP and Challenger. MS reckons Insignia's stock offers compelling value, but cuts its target price 9.1% to A$3.50/share on its technology spend. For AMP, MS sees it as having a strong balance sheet but notes the stock isn't cheap next to peers. It cuts AMP's target price 18% to A$1.07/share. Challenger's earnings still look volatile to MS, even as it benefits from higher interest rates. MS reduces its target price 2.1% to A$7.10/share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2337 GMT - Xero's U.K. prices are especially positive since they suggest the Australia-listed cloud-accounting software provider feels its market position is strong, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. He tells clients in a note that Xero's prior decision to confine June price rises to Australia and New Zealand had sparked concern among investors about the strength of its U.K. market position. Lifting U.K. prices in September will not have a material impact on revenue but should address these worries, he adds. Citi has a buy rating and A$141.90 target price on the stock, which was at A$120.80 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2336 GMT - James Hardie's shares are up more than 50% so far this year, and Citi expects another bounce after the building materials supplier's bullish outlook. James Hardie expects 2Q adjusted net income of $170 million-$190 million, with North American volumes of 740 million-770 million standard feet. Both beat consensus forecasts. It also signaled an improving macro backdrop, lifting expectations for a decline in its 2023 addressable market to 5%-18%, from a drop of 14%-19%. "Despite a run into results we expect likely a further positive share price reaction," Citi says. "This is largely around the view that the price action previously was driven by new housing, while margin/cost (new news) is driving the beat." Still, Citi says caution is warranted as James Hardie was less bullish about the Repair & Remodel segment. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2240 GMT - James Hardie's shares should get a lift when the Australian market opens today, with the building materials supplier's 1Q result and 2Q guidance impressing Jefferies. James Hardie reported 1Q adjusted net income of $174.5 million, which beat guidance for $145 million-$165 million. The company also pointed to an improvement in 2Q, with adjusted net income forecast at $170 million-$190 million, reflecting an improved market outlook and an easing of cost pressures. "This result and guidance not likely to disappoint investors today, with guidance ahead of consensus and James Hardie trading at its median 10-year Enterprise Value/Ebit multiple," analyst Simon Thackray says in a note. Jefferies has an underperform rating on James Hardie's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

5