Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 14 Aug 2023 14:55:24
Jimmy
one year ago

0208 GMT - Bendigo & Adelaide's FY 2023 results look clean despite the earnings miss relative to consensus, UBS analysts say in a note. Two positives in the Australian regional lender's results are the return to loan growth in 2H and net interest margin stability. "We note a NIM decline evident in 4Q, with the outlook for an improvement in structural profitability hinging on NIM stability and further cost out," says UBS. In line with major bank CBA, Bendigo's asset quality is better than expected for this point in the cycle, UBS says, but it reckons that for the stock to re-rate further, consensus forecasts on return on equity of 6.7% for FY 2025-2030 will need to be raised. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)


0201 GMT - AMP's cost-reduction targets are a good start in right-sizing the organization, says UBS analyst Scott Russell in a note. Still, he says that it isn't certain that these savings will drop through to the bottom line. Even so, UBS notes that the Australian wealth manager's 1H FY 2023 results were ahead of consensus, which had been revised down substantially over the past month, and that underlying net profit after tax of A$112 million was flat versus the previous year, reflecting an improvement in its bank and wealth unit earnings. UBS raises the stock's target price 8% to A$1.08. AMP was last down 1.8% at A$1.23. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)


0150 GMT - Bendigo's FY 2023 results were slightly softer than anticipated, say Citi analysts in a note. The Australian regional lender's reported cash earnings of A$577 million were around 2%-3% below Citi and consensus estimates, with a slightly softer 4Q net interest margin and higher costs. Still, Citi sees the results as mitigated by a stronger balance sheet and still generally benign asset quality. At the same time, Citi views the lender's capital position as strong, but there may be further questions about its NIM trajectory. "We and consensus forecast an FY 2024 NIM of 1.91%, and consequently NIM revisions should be relatively minor," says Citi. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)


0139 GMT - Aurizon's network division was the bright spot in a set of otherwise soft FY 2023 results, Citi analyst Samuel Seow says in a note. The network business logged a 6% beat on Ebitda versus consensus, while Aurizon's coal and bulk units missed by 4% and 3%, respectively, says Seow. The rail-freight operator's dividend, cash flow and gearing also disappointed. "Currently AZJ is discounting yield investors to grow/diversify earnings in bulk, however to-date returns and result still appear underwhelming," Seow says. Citi has a neutral rating and A$3.92 target on Aurizon, which is down by 2.0% at A$3.625. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)


0130 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's annual earnings and dividend both fell short of expectations for Citi analysts, who nonetheless see things to like in the retailer's report. They tell clients in a note that 2H gross margins at JB's Good Guys home-appliance chain were much stronger than they had forecast, while JB Hi-Fi's inventory management in Australia remains very strong. The broader market had been less optimistic than Citi ahead of the fiscal 2023 result announcement, and will likely look favorably on the overall outcome, they add. Citi has a neutral rating and A$48.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.7% at A$48.02. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)


0102 GMT - Investors are likely to remain focused on when Ansell will have greater visibility on inventory levels going forward, UBS analyst Laura Sutcliffe says. She tells clients in a note that the protective-garment manufacturer's ongoing emphasis on customer destocking into fiscal 2024 means that Ansell's challenges aren't yet over. Ansell's margins widened in healthcare and narrowed in industrial, but the market will be primarily concerned with the overall demand picture, Sutcliffe adds. UBS has a last-published neutral rating and A$26.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.1% at A$24.50. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)


0056 GMT - Gold miner Newmont might look to offload any mine producing less than about 300,000 troy ounces a year once a planned takeover of Australia's Newcrest is completed, UBS analyst Levi Spry says in a note. He lists Newmont's Cripple Creek & Victor, Musselwhite, Porcupine and Éléonore operations as some that could possibly be put up for sale. Newcrest's "Telfer is also an asset we have our eyes on," says Spry, who expects Newmont to provide more details alongside its February 2024 strategic update. Newcrest is up 1.0% in Sydney at A$26.10. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)


0041 GMT - Beach Energy's guidance for an up to A$65 million expense item tied to unavoidable costs for transporting, processing and selling LNG from its Waitsia Stage 2 project surprises RBC Capital Markets. The expense follows delays to the project, with first gas now targeted for mid-2024. Beach had previously hoped to have Waitsia Stage 2 online by the end of this year, but suffered setbacks including the insolvency of a key contractor. It withdrew scheduling guidance in May. In a note, analyst Gordon Ramsay said the expense item was unexpected "as Beach previously guided to no impact on the BP LNG sales agreement from Waitsia delay." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)


0036 GMT - Australian real-estate investment trust GPT's 1H results look steady to Citi. GPT said its funds from operations fell by 3% on year and management kept its full-year guidance for FFO and distribution unchanged. GPT's net tangible assets of 5.85 Australian cents/security as of end-June places the stock at a 28% discount to its share price, says Citi, which rates the stock a buy. "GPT's assets under management comprises circa 29% logistics, 36% office and 35% which is relatively attractive considering the cheap discount to the sum-of-the-parts," Citi says. GPT is up 1.7% at A$4.27. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)


0031 GMT - Beach Energy's FY 2024 production guidance of 18.0 million-21.0 million barrels of oil equivalent falls well short of consensus expectations of 22.9 million BOE, Citi says in a note. The miss includes another delay to the Waitsia Stage 2 natural-gas project, which is now forecast to start mid-2024, three months later than Citi had expected. In May, Beach withdrew a target date for completion of Waitsia Stage 2 and said it could no longer be certain there wouldn't be cost overruns given a tight labor market. Management had previously targeted the first gas by the end of this year. "Today's results highlight why we can't justify a more optimistic view on Beach following the recent share price rally," Citi says.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)


0006 GMT - QBE's 1H FY 2023 result looks soft to Morgans with some obvious areas of weakness, the broker's analyst Richard Coles says in a note. One of the not so good points is the 1H group combined operating ratio of 97.6% (underlying level) which was impacted by net catastrophe claims coming in above QBE's allowance, he says. Still, QBE's FY 2023 COR guidance implies a material improvement in its performance in 2H, so the market will likely focus on this rather than the difficult 1H, he reckons. Morgans raises its net profit after tax forecasts by 2%-9% for FY 2023-FY 2024 on the strong 2H COR guidance. It raises the stock's target price 6.6% to A$17.16/share. QBE was last down A$15.37.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)


2331 GMT - Carsales.com's annual result and FY 2024 outlook should be sufficient for shares to hold onto recent gains, E&P Financial analyst Entcho Raykovski says. He tells clients in a note that FY 2023 earnings were stronger than he had anticipated, while the vehicle-advertiser's outlook for what it called good pro-forma Ebitda growth looks consistent with the average analyst forecast of 11%. E&P has a last-published positive rating and A$26.60 target price on the stock, which is up 20% so far in 2023. Shares are at A$24.61 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)


2328 GMT - BOQ's announcement that CEO Patrick Allaway will continue in his role with the search for a new CEO discontinued may reduce the risk of strategic discontinuity and an earnings reset, says E&P analyst Azib Khan in a note. Even so, he believes BOQ still faces many challenges, including mortgage book contraction which E&P says became more pronounced in March, April and May. "BOQ was the only bank in our coverage which has experienced mortgage book contraction over this three-month period. We see this as posing greater margin downside risk for BOQ through heavier retention discounting," says E&P. At the same time, it expects BOQ management to be distracted in coming months by announced enforceable undertakings and the integration of ME Bank. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)


2215 GMT - REA's valuation keeps Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed neutral on the stock despite the Australian real-estate advertiser's solid medium-term growth prospects. Ahmed expect listings volumes to grow in fiscal 2024 as Australia's housing market recovers, with revenue underpinned by the company's 13% price increase and ongoing depth growth. Yet he says in a note to clients that the stock is trading at 27 times Ebitda and doesn't offer compelling risk-reward. Citi raises its target price by 1% to A$159.00. Shares are at A$158.68 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires


August 14, 2023 00:55 ET (04:55 GMT)

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