0441 GMT - Seek's fiscal 2024 guidance implies that the Australian job advertiser's profit hasn't risen in two years, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel says. The employment marketplace's fiscal 2023 adjusted net profit was about 3% lower than guidance and the fiscal 2024 outlook appears weak due to lower ad-volumes in Australia and New Zealand, Samuel writes in a note to clients. He reckons that stripping out the cost of unifying its tech platforms still leaves the stock trading at 32X earnings, which he doesn't see as compelling given macro risks. Jefferies raises the stock's target price 8.1% to A$25.42 amid derisking of Seek's fiscal 2025 cost base. It keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is down 4.2% at A$23.62. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0333 GMT - The underlying free cash flow implied by Transurban's FY 2024 distribution guidance looks disappointing to UBS, but the management may be acting cautiously. Transurban has signaled an annual payout of A$0.62/security but says this is likely to include A$0.03-A$0.04/security of cash held during the construction of the WestConnex highway in Sydney. Excluding that capital adjustment, Transurban's guidance implies 6% growth in free cash flow in FY 2024, UBS says. That could be conservative, as traffic continues to recover and inflation is high. "Investors might remember the same situation a year ago when FY 2023 guidance of A$0.53/security implied a 10% downgrade to consensus but then Transurban ultimately delivered a result of A$0.58/security," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0319 GMT - Higher interest rates aren't helping Challenger's annuity sales as much as expected, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. For 4Q FY 2023, MS notes that while tenor improved, domestic annuity sales fell 2.5% on quarter. While the Australian financial company has growth options, MS views these as capital intensive. MS notes that due to the higher rates, the company is taking longer to earn versus both insurers and banks. It cuts the stock's target price 4.2% to A$6.80. The stock is down 4.4% at A$6.45. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0244 GMT - Now is a good time for Dexus to look at restocking its pipeline of development projects, CEO Darren Steinberg says. Dexus signaled a weaker distribution of 48 Australian cents/security in FY 2024, versus 51.6 cents in FY 2023, because it expects trading profits to be lower. Steinberg says Dexus held back on buying more property as real-estate markets strengthened in recent years, meaning it has fewer opportunities to recycle capital in FY 2024. But the company has A$2.5 billion cash and undrawn facilities that allow it to look at transactions as asset values become more attractively priced, he says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0236 GMT - Dexus expects cap rates to widen by 12.5-25.0 basis points across FY 2024, but most of that will happen in the period through December. CEO Darren Steinberg says this cap-rate shift won't be fully reflected in valuation decreases for commercial property because companies will have income growth coming through. Commercial real estate is typically valued based on its cap rate, or the annual net income produced by a property divided by the purchase price. Like bond yields, rising cap rates indicate falling values, and vice versa. Steinberg expects market sentiment to stabilize after Christmas, with leasing activity likely to pick up, as investors position themselves for FY 2025.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0148 GMT - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 2H FY 2023 results weren't as good as Morgan Stanley analysts had hoped, but its outlook was also less cautious than they had feared. They like the focus on returns, cost efficiency and volume versus margin management that the Australian regional bank has taken on over the past year. "In our view, this was maintained in 2H FY 2023, despite a more challenging operating environment," MS says, but adds that it is expecting margin pressure to lead to an earnings decline in FY 2024. Even so, MS is encouraged by the bank's transformation progress, the composition of its deposits, niche growth options, and stronger balance sheet. It stays overweight on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0102 GMT - Netwealth's absence of FY 2024 guidance likely clouds its near-term outlook, UBS analysts Scott Russell and Shreyas Patel say in a note. This probably reflects a lack of transparency into the timing of client transitions in the current environment, they say. At the same time, UBS notes that FY 2023 earnings were below consensus, with net profit after tax at A$67.2 million versus consensus of A$67.8 million. UBS has a buy call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0052 GMT - Netwealth's FY 2023 results look essentially in line with expectations, but as anticipated it gave no FY 2024 investment flow guidance, Citi analysts say in a note. The investment bank forecasts flows of A$10.2 billion, up 4% on year, while consensus has it at A$10.1 billion. "While the result was essentially in line, given the strong run in the past month we see potential for the share price to underperform today," due to the slight miss in net profit after tax and Ebitda, as well as the lack of flow guidance, says Citi. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0022 GMT - NAB's loan and deposit growth appears to be slowing, Morgans analyst Nathan Lead says in a note. The Australian lender reported its gross loan portfolio in fiscal 3Q as being broadly flat compared with fiscal 1H, which prompts Morgans to slightly moderate its loan growth outlook. "NAB is pursuing simplification and improved digitization within personal banking. The stock has an attractive yield and capacity for buybacks. Our caution comes from slowing loan/deposit growth," the broker says. It maintains its hold call on the stock noting that while NAB doesn't trade on the premium multiples of CBA it is more expensive than ANZ and Westpac.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0008 GMT - Challenger's FY 2023 result look mixed to Morgans analyst Richard Coles. In a note, he says he sees evidence of rising interest rates improving the Australian financial company's margins and return on equity, but also views FY 2024 guidance as being below market expectations, and 2H FY 2023 annuity book growth as weak. More positively, Morgans reckons Challenger has solid enough business momentum, with the tailwind of rising interest rates still to work fully through earnings. As a result, Morgans keeps its add call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2332 GMT - While Challenger's annuity sales continue to grow, with the cost to income ratio improving, the Australian financial company has flagged a negative return on equity outlook in FY 2024, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank notes that Challenger isn't expecting to achieve its group ROE target due to the lower contribution to group earnings from the Funds Management division. "We continue to like the long-term aging population thematic, but remain cautious on short-term investment markets given the sensitivity to Challenger's investment portfolio," says Macquarie. It cuts its target price 9% to A$6.10/share. Challenger was last down 2.9% to A$6.76/share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2315 GMT - Challenger is seeing some success in lengthening the duration of its new business, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. While this should be positive for the cost of equity margin, Citi reckons it could come at a cost in terms of capital. This is because the extended liability duration has the potential to raise capital intensity. Overall, Citi sees Challenger is on track to deliver greater book growth in FY 2024 than the 5.2% it reported in FY 2023, with strong retail sales momentum alongside lowering maturities, says Citi which keeps its sell call, but lifts its target price 4.2% to A$6.25/share. Challenger was last down 2.9% to A$6.76/share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2319 GMT - NAB's quality and balance-sheet trends look to be remaining supportive, but until the full impact of higher rates is known Macquarie analysts expect discounted valuations to persist. In a note, they say NAB's 3Q FY 2023 update was broadly consistent with Macquarie expectations, with margins continuing to decline from peak levels, but the rate of decline looking to have moderated. "Key surprise for us was more subdued credit growth, as mortgage and business growth were largely offset by reduced institutional balances," says Macquarie. At the same time, the investment bank continues to expect normalization in term deposit spreads and deposit switching to drive margins lower. It keeps its neutral call, with NAB Macquarie's preferred exposure amongst the Australian major lenders. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2252 GMT - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 5.50% at its monetary policy statement at 0200 GMT, with the central bank set to reiterate its "watch, worry and wait" stance, says Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ. Recent data have been mixed, with relatively resilient demand but inflation indicators falling, she says. ANZ doesn't expect the RBNZ to indicate the chance that further policy tightening may be needed, but it's OCR forecasts may show rates remaining at their peak for a little longer, Zollner adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com)

2251 GMT -- NAB's volume momentum over the next 12 months looks to favor commercial over housing, with the Australian lender potentially having best exposure in the sector to this thematic, says Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Lyons and John Li in a note. This is one reason GS reiterates its buy on NAB, they say. Another positive according to GS is NAB delivering the highest levels of productivity over the last three years and its investments continue to yield benefits, making it likely well positioned for an environment of elevated inflationary pressure. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

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2238 GMT - Challenger's Life book growth is likely to be supported by a lower maturity profile and sales, say Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim in a note. They note that the Australian financial company is guiding FY 2024 maturities to be 26%, down from 33% in FY 2023. "We think reducing maturities alongside new business sales will help support book growth into FY 2024," says GS. It says it's positive on Challenger, but thinks its possible sustaining strong book growth could pressure capital. GS stays neutral rated and cuts its target price 3.6%, to A$6.50/share. Challenger was last down 2.9%, to A$6.76/share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2226 GMT - Challenger's FY 2023 results include a range of positive elements, including a better cost of equity margin and net profit after tax growth, says Jefferies analysts Simon Fitzgerald and William Richardson in a note. They add that increases in interest rates are translating to strong demand for annuities and improved investment yields, which Jefferies sees as pushing Challenger's FY 2023 NPAT to a beat. Jefferies reaffirms its buy rating. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2220 GMT - Computershare's fiscal 2024 EPS guidance looks weaker than the market had been looking for, Jefferies analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the share-registry provider's guidance for so-called management EPS of US$1.16 compares with their expectation of US$1.308, and with an average analyst forecast of US$1.22. The main driver of the shortfall appears to be Computershare's cut to margin-income guidance to US$840 million from prior guidance of US$935 million. Jefferies has a last-published hold rating and A$24.20 target price on the Australia-listed stock, which was at A$24.93 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

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