Forum Topics AD8 AD8 AD8 valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 9 months ago
Justification

Assumptions:

Revenue Growth: 25% for the next 2 years is a good guess based on the below

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Gross Margin of 74% in FY25 ( current margin 72.1%, Management flagged that it will increase gradually)

allowing employee expenses to $35m to cater for a flagged 15% headcount increase

Share count of 82m in FY25

FY25 Reve of 108m, GM of 80m, and Profit of 32m

PE of 35 in FY25

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I haven't factored in the net cash balance sheet and how they can allocate to increase the profit.

Even if they sit on the cash, they will generate ~1.2m cash out of interest in FY24

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What are fundies saying?

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thunderhead
8 months ago

They seem to be united with their price targets. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing haha.

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Bear77
8 months ago

I'm fairly sure some of those guys piggy back off the research reports of one or two of the others, so, for instance, UBS and MS could (for example only) be relying on the analysis by Macquarie and have just plugged in slightly more bullish or bearish assumptions into their valuations/price targets. I guess the go would be to get the full reports from all of them and compare - see which one is the most comprehensive - and which ones are released first. I tend to think if all of the brokers are bullish on something, be careful, and if they're all bearish, there might be an opportunity. I'm not contrarian just for the sake of it, but I tend to find my best opportunities to profit by starting with a contrarian mindset. That said, I hold AD8 both here and in my SMSF. Very happy with recent price action. Even happier with their report. I did add Audinate to my portfolios when the market was fairly negative on them, so there's that contrarian mindset again.

The exception to the "brokers are often wrong" rule is when they're playing catch-up, so the price has got away from them and they're scrambling to change their recomendations to reflect the new reality, and that involves dragging up their PTs as well. When AD8 hits $18, the brokers will probably raise their PTs again - to $19.50. Doesn't mean much really.

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Remorhaz
8 months ago

@Bear77 I have access to the full reports (and their flashnote/firsttake/etc update reports which they put out quickly before they release their "real" updates later on (either later the same day or the next)). I can see the order they were released - e.g. MS was the first to release (11PM on the 20th), followed by UBS and then Macquarie (both on the 21st). Then MS released their final report ~8PM on 21st, then Macquarie and then UBS (both on 22nd)

As you say I'm not sure it tells you anything meaningful - but it's yet another interesting datapoint I guess

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Bear77
8 months ago

Based on that sequence of events @Remorhaz we could guess that MS are the lead brokers covering AD8, perhaps they covered them first, before the others jumped onboard - back in the day - and perhaps while also doing some further research themselves, UBS and Macquarie do read what MS have to say when preparing their own reports and price targets?

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