Forum Topics M7T M7T TechnicalUpdate

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

After a promising set up, the post-4C price action has not been good.

Shares have now settled back into the range they broke out of, after rallying close to overhead resistance at $1 (the high was around 96c).

So back in the doghouse until there are material fundamental developments again (or the price starts moving ahead of those developments, as often tends to be the case especially in small cap land).

mikebrisy
8 months ago

@thunderhead good point. I see this happening with quite a few small/micro-caps that are around the "inflection point" at the moment. Now that discount rates are up, perhaps investors are struggling how to value them. Revenue multiples were OK before interest rates hiked, but now with capital harder to raise there has to be another multiple. If you have lowor near-zero EBITDA, EBIT or Cashflow, its hard to come up with a comparable value.

Furthermore, if your revenue growth is "only" 20% p.a., there's not a lot of headroom for cost increases. Which is why cost control is so crucial. Add to that any lumpiness in revenue, and that further undermines any sense of quality. The smaller cost base and increased lumpiness presents a special challenge for the small-caps.

I think the only resolution to this is to keep growing revenue faster than cost, and eventually there will be some basis on which to re-rate.

Which is why cash is king for now. Cash on the balance sheet buys you some time for this to play out. That's how I'm reading things at the moment. (Or maybe I'm just stating the obvious?)

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