Forum Topics AD8 AD8 Broker View

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

Following on from @harryd's Analyst View straw...

At least three major Investment Banks cover AD8 and have published updated research reports in the past day so here's some snippets for what it's worth ...

Morgan Stanley: Overweight, Price Target: $13.30 (upgraded from $11 previously)

FY23 beat across the board, positive 2H FCF with strong outlook + FY24e guide. The stock price reflects this, so where's the opportunity + what are the debates? 1. 100% LTI vesting implies FY25e revenue 20% above cons, 2. Superior mature margins, and 3. Winning in video as AD8 has in audio

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UBS: Buy, 12M Price Target: $13.55 (upgraded from $10.35 previously)

Strong result on all fronts, outlook +ive with supply overhang largely resolved

A strong result all round, delivering a 10% rev beat vs consensus and +39% at EBITDA. Supply chain impacts are largely resolved, through a combination of easing chip supply and redesigns - removing a constraint on already high rev growth (FY23 +40% vs +32% FY17-22 CAGR, exc. COVID impacted FY20). The sales backlog remains close to record levels (despite the dissipation of supply constraints), providing good rev visibility in 1H24, although the order window should narrow over time. Video is also gaining good traction, with 48 products launched (vs 20 at 1H23 / 7 in pcp) and we expect product releases to translate to units shipped in FY24E. Margins in FY24E should also be supported by COGs reduction (vol benefits from new B3 model + easing supply) and transition to software (flat GP$ but higher mgn). Design wins are at all-time highs (142 vs 126 FY22) and AD8's total product ecosystem is still much larger than the nearest competitor (12x more). FCF turned +ive in 2H23 and mgmt expects a marginally +ive outcome for FY24E. We remain positive on the structural story and video op. Trading on FY24E EV/Sales of 9.8x, offering 3yr (FY24-27E) GP CAGR of +26%, maintain Buy 


Macquarie: Buy, 12M Price Target: $13.50

Key Points

  • Backlog is at near record levels & supply chains have normalised
  • Guidance for gross profit dollar growth in the historical range. Gross margin is broadly an outcome of mix, but there are tailwinds in FY24
  • FY24 headcount growth (15%) is focused in the Philippines. Coupled with efficiency initiatives, there is strong scope for operating leverage in FY24


We think AD8 is at an inflection point in earnings, driven by delivery on their strategy of growing the Dante-enabled network. The FY23 result is evidence of operating momentum accelerating, which should support strong double-digit FCF growth over the forecast period. We reiterate Outperform. 

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DISC: Held in RL & SM

thunderhead
8 months ago

Thanks for sharing. Btw, how do people generally access published research from brokers like this? I imagine it is not available to just your average mom-and-pop investor.

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