Forum Topics PKP PKP Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 3 years ago

Interested to hear if any Strawman users are following AGH. Held in RL and just released their final Quarterly results for year ending 30 June.

It is an interesting to look back on - got caught up in the cannibas hype a few years ago and the price has been on a one way ticket towards zero ever since.

However, that tells you nothing about the business itself, which has been growing strongly.

AGH manufactures, distributes and sells cannabis based products across two segments - Medicinal (Althea) and Recreational (Peak). The market cap is $17m and yet the business achieved $33m in cash sales across FY23, which is us up from $22m in FY22 and $11m in FY21. Its also important to be aware that they manufacture and sell medicinal products - but they are not a grower. Their sales are also global and anyone who has spent time in places like Canada would understand the improvement

The business is not yet cash flow positive, but is set to approach that milestone in the September quarter. Gross margins run around 60% and the business has made substantial effort in taking cost out of the business. For the most recent quarter, net cash used in operations was down ~80% to just -$368k. Cash on hand is $4.3m and of course we know that quarterlys can be lumpy so another thing to be aware of.

At the current market price (which I think is still carrying a big hangover from investors who bought in at substantially higher prices), AGH is trading at 0.5x revenue last years revenue, which has been growing strongly. The cost base of the business has been improved and should be completely self sustaining moving into next FY. There are plenty of growth tailwinds in the sector globally.

Has anyone had a look here? is there something obvious I am missing?

YESchuck
Added 3 years ago

I had a read through the annual report and there are some real concerns with this business and it really is going to go down to the wire in the next couple of months as to weather they will survive.

Included in the current liabilities are borrowings of $3,879,000 which are due in February 2024 and only have cash of $3,874,000 and are not yet free cash flow positive.

The management believe there are three initiatives that may be able eliminate the above concerns.

The initiatives are renegotiate with the respective borrowers and extend the time frame or covert or equity, capital raise, or seek a potential merger or be acquired.

All this suggests they are throwing a Hail Mary to get them over the line

this is going to be really interesting to watch and see if they can pull it off

Fingers crossed

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