0435 GMT - Mining stocks tend to do well starting in October and heading into year-end, according to analysis of seasonal swings for the past 25 or so years, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. He reckons that seasonal strength could provide a boost to miners ahead, even as the market frets about the outlook for China, the top buyer of many mined commodities. "Without ruling out incremental jitteriness, we think we are possibly around the end of this rough patch with favorable seasonality effect could alleviate some of the concerns," Ravi says. BHP, the world's No. 1 miner by market value, trades at A$43.66/share in Sydney, down 2.7% so far in September.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0431 GMT - The return on equity of ANZ's institutional division looks to have improved to a level that now creates shareholder value, E&P analyst Azib Khan says in a note. This comes after a prolonged period of sub cost-of-capital returns, Khan says. ANZ believes that it can sustain an institutional ROE in the mid-teens, E&P notes. However, E&P doesn't expect the bank to meet its FY 2023 cost guidance, and lowers FY 2023, FY 2024, FY 2025 earnings-per-share forecasts for ANZ to reflect higher cost assumptions. E&P maintains a negative recommendation on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0125 GMT - A lack of discovered mineral resources in the U.S. highlights the need for more comprehensive geologic survey, exploration and mapping efforts, to reduce reliance on critical mineral imports, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. "In the case of some battery-making minerals like cobalt, nickel, and vanadium, the U.S. holds an average reserve level of only 0.5% of the total global reserves," the analysts say. Nickel and cobalt reserves today are particularly low at just 0.4% and 0.8% of the global total, which would only meet U.S. needs for two and nine years, respectively, they say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0050 GMT - Sims's projection of breakeven 1Q Ebit could lead to a roughly 10% downgrade to the market's earnings estimates, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. But perhaps even more concerning is Sims's comment that the previously resilient U.S. market also looks to be softening, they say. "At this early stage it is difficult to ascertain how material this guide will be for the 4Q estimate, and the downward revisions to the 1H24 market estimates," the analysts say. "While the 1Q24 start is not as bad as 1Q23, the 2Q24 rebound is unlikely to be as positive." Sims is down by 11% at A$13.70. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0035 GMT - NAB's underlying expenses look set to rise, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. While the Australian lender's underlying expense growth averaged just around 2% a year over the past three years, MS forecasts growth of around 9.5% in FY 2023 and around 4.5% in FY 2024. "The former includes an around 3% impact from a full year of Citi expenses, but it still implies underlying cost growth of around 6.5%," says MS. NAB completed its acquisition of Citi's Australia consumer business last year. MS adds that its forecasts are around 1% above consensus for FY 2024 and around 2.5% higher for FY 2025. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0022 GMT - Commonwealth Bank of Australia's decision to forgo lending growth amid competition in Australia's mortgage sector is starting to worry investors, Citi analysts say in a note. CBA has been active in trying to address an imbalance in volume versus margins as higher interest rates have created competition pressure, they note. CBA has foregone lending growth, moved pricing higher and removed cashbacks, Citi notes. "Many investors are starting to become concerned about the implications of this below system performance, which is unusual by historical standards, if it persists for the remainder of the financial year," it says. Citi wonders whether consensus expectations for a continuation of the net interest margin decline may need to be addressed if volumes continue to slow.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0001 GMT - Citi's analysis of web and app traffic data suggests continued weakness in Japan and Taiwan for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, the Australia-based company that runs the brand in those countries. Citi says Domino's has more work to do to rebuild demand, noting that traffic to the Japan website and active app users in Taiwan both declined in August. More broadly, Citi says that Domino's needs to significantly increase the pace of new store openings to meet its targets, though that will depend on the willingness and ability of franchisees to invest. Citi maintains a neutral rating on Domino's stock. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2350 GMT - There is cause to be more positive on both the short- and medium-term growth outlooks for Carsales.com, say Goldman Sachs analysts Kane Hannan and Benjamin Rada Martin in a note.They reckon that the company will continue delivering "good" earnings growth through the cycle, and see that Carsales' Trader Interactive acquisition has numerous growth drivers including new verticals like Marine. GS stays neutral on Carsales, but raises its target price 11% to A$29.00. Carsales was last up 0.7% at A$28.81. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2340 GMT - There looks to be a correlation between the Rugby World Cup and lower private health insurance claims in Australia, say Macquarie analysts in a note. It attributes this to surgeons taking leave at this time. The investment bank's research shows there has historically been a significant benefit for gross margins during the RWC. "Furthermore, there is one less traditional workday in 1H FY 2024 versus the previous corresponding period implying upside earnings risk in the short term for Medibank and Nib," says Macquarie. Its outlook for the Australian PHI sector is for margins to continue above medium-term expectations, before macroeconomic trends become more challenging in 2H FY 2024.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2238 GMT - Capricorn Metals was smart to use strong cash generation to eliminate its debt and close out some gold hedges, says Bell Potter. The miner reported a net cash position of A$56 million at end-FY 2023, from net debt of A$4 million a year earlier, and spent A$33.1 million to remove all hedging obligations until September next year. "With a final investment decision for the Mt Gibson Gold Project now likely in 1H of 2024 and a favorable outlook for the gold price, we view this as a good use of capital thatwill appeal to shareholders looking for exposure to upside in the gold price (and including downside protection at A$2,810/oz)," analyst David Coates says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2232 GMT - Capricorn Metals could be in a position to start paying a dividend in FY 2025, Macquarie says in a note. The gold miner reported tax losses of A$18 million at the end of FY 2023, but Macquarie now estimates it will begin to pay cash tax early in FY 2024. "We now incorporate a notional commencement of dividend payments in FY 2025 given the beginning of cash tax payments," Macquarie says in a note.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 11, 2023 00:55 ET (04:55 GMT)