337 GMT - Sigma Healthcare's 1H result looks messy to Citi analyst Mathieu Chevrier, who notes that the pharmaceutical supplier's 2H result will also contain one-off items that remain unquantified by the Australian company. He observes that Sigma's 1H EBIT was broadly in line with market expectations once one-off items including the sale of its hospitals business are stripped out. FY EBIT guidance by Sigma, which is in a period of transition, implies 2H EBIT of A$4 million-A$9 million inclusive of one-off costs, he says. Citi has a last-published neutral rating and A$0.80 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$0.7625. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0324 GMT - Aristocrat Leisure keeps its bull at Morgans after the Australia-listed gambling company confirmed that its 2H performance is in line with its expectations. Morgans analyst Alexander Mees digests the management's regular roundtable and tells clients in a note that North American gambling has continued to be the primary driver of Aristocrat's earnings. There are signs of stabilization and even some early improvement in digital gambling, he adds. Mees raises his underlying profit forecasts for FY 2023 and FY 2024 by 4.1% and 0.7%, respectively, adjusting for currency moves and depreciation and amortization. Morgans raises the target price by 2.2% to A$46.00 and maintains an add rating on the stock, which is up 3.1% at A$42.33. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0309 GMT - Endeavour Group continues to look undervalued to Jarden's analysts, who say see the New South Wales state government budget as incrementally positive for the Australian hotel operator. The analysts point to the absence of any step-up in gaming-machine regulation or downward revision of tax revenue forecasts. There were no unwelcome surprises for Endeavour, they say in a note to clients. Jarden maintains a A$6.30 target price on the stock and reiterates its overweight recommendation. Shares are up 0.2% at A$5.30. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0219 GMT - QBE's reduced share of Australia's strata insurance market should provide some respite for the ASX-listed company's catastrophe exposure, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They tell clients in a note that the entry of start-up Hutch and increased capacity at privately owned QUS have reduced market share for both QBE and Steadfast Group's CHU. They estimate that Australian strata risks are one of QBE's three largest catastrophe exposures. Strata would therefore be adversely affecting the cost of QBE's reinsurance covers at group level, they say. Macquarie has an outperform recommendation and target price of A$16.80 on QBE shares, which are up 1.4% at A$15.47. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0122 GMT - Altium looks fairly valued to Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage, who reckons that the positive of being a global software company is largely offset by how early it is in its transition to becoming a software-as-a-service provider. Shares are trading at about 48 times fiscal 2024 earnings, which Savage notes is well below WiseTech's fiscal 2024 earnings multiple of 82. He sees a more apt comparison for the printed-circuitboard specialist in Technology One, which is at a similar stage of its SaaS transition and is trading at about 42 times fiscal 2024 earnings. Bell Potter raises target price 10% to A$44.00 on higher multiples and maintains a hold rating on the stock. Shares are down 1.1% at A$44.41. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0037 GMT - Any demerger by Premier Investments of its retail brands risks sacrificing scale benefits in rent negotiations and supply costs, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. The Australian retail conglomerate is considering demerging one or more of its brands, which the MS analysts say could lead to potential medium-term dis-synergies. They also see near-term issues since Premier currently benefits from centralized supply chains and support functions including IT and human resources. Yet potential dis-synergies are hard to quantify and some could be managed, they add. MS has an overweight recommendation and A$32.25 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$25.19. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0034 GMT - Coal miner New Hope doesn't appear likely to extend its share buyback program, says Macquarie. Since commencing the buyback in November 2022, New Hope has repurchased 37.1 million shares for a total value of A$192.4 million. "However, the company has stated that it has minimal share capital for future buybacks and expects much off the surplus cash flow to be used for dividend payments," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0030 GMT - New South Wales's move to cap the cost of using toll roads at A$60/week could put more cars on the road, Macquarie says. It represents a shift away from road users paying 40% of the toll above A$1,608/year and the government estimates the new policy is 5%-6% of Sydney's toll revenue. "We think this is conservative with a cap potentially inducing toll road usage," Macquarie says in a note. Motorists who have already run up against the cap during the week may decide to hit the road on weekends as well, given it comes at no additional cost. "Importantly, it creates behavioral changes that can last longer than the toll program," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2318 GMT - Higher steel prices are needed for iron ore to keep climbing, given steelmaker margins are negative, Bank of America analysts say in a note. Spot iron ore is up by 18% since June, lifted on summer restocking by mills that had run down their inventories previously, the analysts say. "What could extend the rally in iron prices from here? In our view, an improvement in margins is essential, and that needs steel prices to rebound," they say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2259 GMT - Australian student-placement provider IDP Education's fiscal 2024 EPS is likely to be tilted toward the first half, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Gawler. He forecasts 1H EPS of A$0.35 and 2H EPS of A$0.29, which together would represent a 20% increase on the A$0.534 that IDP reported across fiscal 2023. GS maintains its buy recommendation and A$29.65 target price, which includes a A$1.80 inorganic uplift to reflect an assumption that the company reinvests free cash into further acquisitions. Shares were at A$23.95 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2242 GMT - New Hope's free cash flow in FY 2024 could be around a third of the A$1.4 billion achieved in FY 2023, Jefferies says, but this should enable the Australian coal miner to maintain a healthy dividend and buy back more shares. Analyst Chris Drew estimates New Hope's free cash flow at A$454 million in FY 2024, noting that coal prices are lower than FY 2023 levels and the company plans to spend A$54 million on its Bengalla mine. Jefferies expects a total dividend of A$0.46/share from New Hope in FY 2024, while another A$107 million could be spent on repurchasing stock. "Spot coal prices are trading 20% above our FY 2024 estimates," Jefferies says. "At spot our FY 2024 free cash flow lifts to A$690 million and our forecast dividend comes to A$0.62/share." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2232 GMT - Orica's plant maintenance plans for FY 2024 may cost it around A$30 million in lost manufacturing margin, Jefferies analyst Richard Johnson says in a note. The main turnaround is scheduled for the Kooragang Island Ammonia plant, which occurs every six years. Jefferies notes the plant will be down for around 11 weeks across two stages in October and February. "This shut means that Orica will be short circa 70,000 tons of ammonia or circa 160,000 tons of ammonium nitrate," Jefferies says. "Making some very broad assumptions based on the divisional unit economics, the dollar impact of the loss of this manufacturing margin could be, we estimate, around A$30 million." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires