The below is from Seeking alpha, and i post this article out of interest. usually, i am wary of comments from analysts i don't know or haven't been following for a while. however the below did catch my eye. hopefully not confirmation bias, i admit to being influenced by FOMO, impatience but not anchoring (that just not rational), confirmation dont know? lol
maybe the narrative is starting to even out
Weight loss drugs' impact is based on hype not reality - RBC
04:43 PM | (PFE) | By: Jonathan Block, SA News Editor
Despite recent prognostications that a class of drugs increasingly being used for weight loss is a threat to food and beverage stocks, RBC Capital Markets said the concern is largely unwarranted.
Side effects, inconsistent refill rates which indicate compliance may be an issue, and the potential for payor pushback all means that some sentiment on the impact of GLP-1 agonist drugs on the consumer sector has gone overboard.
Medications in this category include Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy (semaglutide) and Ozempic (semaglutide), and Eli Lilly's (NYSE:LLY) Mounjaro (tirzepatide).
"Unlike clinical studies, insights from real-world use of these drugs imply weight loss can be limited or short-lived as a result, making it difficult for some users to justify the treatment's lofty price tag," RBC analyst Nik Modi said. "Recent insurance claims data on 4k+ patients who started taking GLP-1s in 2021 indicate only 32% remained on therapy and just 27% adhered to treatment after 1 year, citing an increase in healthcare costs."
He mentioned one study on 3.3k subjects that found after a year on the drugs, patients saw an average of just 4.4% weight loss. That is significantly less than declines cited by Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) in their studies.
Also, he said IQVIA data found that the growth in GLP-1s is due mostly to new prescriptions, not refills, "making us question its sustainability."
Given this information, "we believe GLP-1s have genuine hurdles to prolonged use that have the potential to limit their long-term societal/economic impact."
To back up his argument, Modi provided several real-life examples of drugs or products where hype that it would shake up a consumer segment ended up falling flat. One was Pfizer's (PFE) Chantix (varenicline), which was approved in 2006 and heralded as a breakthrough smoking cessation drug.
Many thought it would negatively impact tobacco stocks. It didn't. The drug was linked to several psychiatric side effects, including hallucinations, paranoia, delusions, and even suicidal ideation and attempts. Uptake of Chantix was blunted.
He also mentioned Beyond Meat (BYND) as company whose meat alternative products were seen as a threat to traditional beef and other animal products. Through hype, the stock reached an all time high of ~$235 in July 2019. The stock closed at $6.84 on Friday.