Cyclopharm Limited

ASX:CYC

Cyclopharm Limited

ASX:CYC
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$1.800 (+2.9%)
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#466
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Pinned straw:
edgescape
Added 7 months ago

Knowing that most don't follow here but I will still post some thoughts

Just found that over 19m was spent for FDA approval possibly in the last few years.

But the crucial thing is in the last report 2.8m was spent and maybe 1.2m the year before

If you strip out the FDA expenses, Cyclopharm still isn't breakeven - perhaps 3m loss last FY and the same previous year.

This is the likely reason why there is still nervousness even after FDA approval

In addition, they still need to spend money for the US market launch even though they have 8.2m of inventory for that market. So there is about 20m allocated for the US market launch. In other words, I don't think CYC will be profitable until FY25 (hoping I'm wrong though). There was also the presso with the CR mentioned by accident that was retracted the same day last week!

Should have done more research before on why they are not breaking even with so many countries ex-US on board.

Hope CYC can become cashflow positive after US launch.

So despite the FDA news, this is more a wait and watch until we can see something meaningful in the financials.

Having said that, Bell potter increased the price target to 4.25. But looking at their track records, especially with CXL I don't think BP can be trusted

[held]
edgescape
7 months ago

Here's a link from Tim Boreham to balance out the arguments in my initial post. Old link though:

https://stockhead.com.au/experts/dr-borehams-crucible-30-years-later-has-cyclopharm-finally-convinced-the-us-fda/

Also from latest slide they are aiming for 240K Technegas procedures in the US which equates to $US36m revenue and then hitting 600K in year 5 (US$150 per procedure).

Conservatively I think it will be half of that or $18m which reiterates the point they won't be profitable unless they can reign in the expenses such as Sales/GA (but I hope I'm wrong!)

Another point I need to clarify is the latest annual report does not clarify any indirect costs related to the FDA approval expense. So it is likely they may have been breakeven without the US FDA distraction.

An unusual observation that it is rather "odd" Technegas profitability is geared towards the US launch.

I did register for the Zoom call in the hope of viewing the recording but that they have denied access by changing the passcode which is annoying.

Going to email them.

6