Forum Topics TLX TLX Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

ASX200 Biotechs just couldn't catch a break

Latest victim is Telix, Down 10% today (19-oct) and at one stage down 15%


I think expenses went up more than expected. Revenue was slightly less than my estimate.



Not sure if they will make the 500m target. Will be tough.

Would have been good buy down to 8.50 but maybe this could go lower?

Interesting that compatriot CU6 has held well through the volatility.


a month ago

FWIW this in from UBS today

Reaction to TLX591 data looks overdone

TLX591 is not a substantial part of our investment case

Telix shares are down c.10% at the time of writing, despite a more or less inline quarter yesterday. The company has released early data for pipeline asset TLX591 (prostate cancer therapeutic), which was expected in 4Q but has triggered a negative reaction, which we believe is overdone. TLX591 is not an asset we are counting on because we believe Novartis' incumbent position in the space with Pluvicto (UBSe peak sales c.USD8b) will prove commercially unassailable unless TLX591 proves to be a substantial leg up in efficacy, and it forms less than 2% of our valuation (unch) for this reason

Either way, the data we have are not the data needed to draw conclusions

Valuation notwithstanding, we make the following observations about the data that Telix has disclosed: 1) PSA reduction can be prognostic of end points typically used for regulatory submission, namely rPFS (radiographic progression free survival) and/or OS (overall survival) but is not necessarily so. Telix has specified 64% of patients seeing PSA reduction overall (variety of time frames) with 27% achieving 30% reduction and 18% demonstrating 50% reduction. Post-hoc analysis of the data for Novartis' VISION trial with Pluvicto detailed 73% of patients with PSA decline, and 28% achieved over 90% reduction (the next group up from 50%). However, the patients in VISION were analysed at a fixed point immediately after the second dose (12 weeks). 2) We know little about the baseline characteristics of the population (n=28) in the Telix trial including baseline PSA levels and background therapy. 3) The Telix safety data appear to us consistent with a prior earlier study using the same dose; safety is the primary end point of the trial. 4) The data for TLX591 were never expected to look characteristically similar to the Pluvicto data given TLX591 uses an antibody backbone to carry the radioactive particle and uses two doses in 14 days, whereas Pluvicto uses a small molecule carrier and doses over up to six cycles over a longer period. The only way to draw useful comparisons is using rPFS data, which we do not have yet. Longer time to median PFS in a single arm study is usually not a bad thing

DISC: Held in RL & SM


a month ago

Thanks @Remorhaz

I didn't get time to read the whole summary due to work.

Seems like everyone overreacted to the therapy update as you mentioned.

Telix however is still free cashflow negative once you include outgoings from investing activities which included a huge contingent payment.

Was surprised that the share price got pushed down to $8.28. Sellers can sometimes get irrational sometimes.

Looks like Telix is following a predictable pattern of being dumped on each quarterly update.