Pinned straw:
@Rapstar beat me to it.
This is potentially the most significant moment for graphite in the last 24 months, and helps demonstrate why the west needs to establish supply outside of mainland China. I no longer think this is/will be a supply issue like many predict (China have demonstrated how quickly they can get their anode factories up and running) but this is plain and simply a national security risk.
I imagine Talga, Novonix, Syrah and co will be licking their lips having seen some of these reports come out. It has been a difficult year for anode suppliers over the last 12 months so some respite is well deserved.
I wonder if the US tariff will resume in early 2024... I don't think the EU one will be far away either.
I don't disagree @edgescape, difficult to provide any further insight without further clarity around China's plans. I think it falls well short of being an outright ban also -- although if this was the case it would be absolutely catastrophic for the west -- not so much for the graphite mining aspect, but the anode.
I think the only real precedent we have to compare with is the same restrictions for gallium and germanium (key for chip making), in place since 1 August. This restriction was said to have cut exports of those metals and pushed up prices elsewhere. Even still though, it is difficult to know what the impact was to exports originating in China. Reporting suggests these restrictions resulted in no exports of gallium and germanium from China, in Aug and Sep. But this was due to permit applications taking a while to process, so not entirely representative of the current state of play. It still remains unclear what the actual impacts will be when exports normalise. The price impacts were significant as expected, see below.
Gallium price history:
Germanium price history:
