Forum Topics Ews Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 26 Oct 2023 15:11:29
Jimmy
10 months ago

0410 GMT - Damstra shrugs off a bear on the Australian software provider's receipt of takeover proposals. Morgan Stanley analysts lift their target price on the stock to A$0.30 from A$0.10, in line with the indicative offer price that Damstra says it has received from multiple parties. They raise their recommendation on the stock to equal-weight from underweight on the expectation that Damstra will trade in line with the probability of the transaction being completed, or any counter proposals that Damstra may receive. Shares in Damstra, which has granted Mitratech exclusive access to its books, are down 2.1% at A$0.235. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0353 GMT - Megaport's strong margins suggest potential for the Australian communications-tech provider to beat market expectations for earnings despite weak 1Q customer growth, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. Ahmed writes in a note that Megaport's 1Q customer growth was even weaker than his already soft forecasts, but he reckons that favorable currency moves could still help the company beat its A$190 million-A$195 million revenue guidance. The company's 1Q gross margins also expanded 110 basis points over the prior three months amid increased focus on direct sales, he adds. Citi has a buy rating and A$12.50 target price on the stock, which is down 20% at A$9.21. Ahmed says the share-price reaction is no surprise given soft KPIs. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0128 GMT - Woolworths Group has flagged that the value offered by its own brand was one of the drivers of item growth in its Australian Food unit for 1Q FY 2024, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note providing takeaways from the grocery company's 1Q management call. Woolworths notes that there is a focus on value evident across all cohorts, and that there is no pronounced trend with regards to in-store theft, and that it's lightly down from the start of the quarter. At the same time, MS says Woolworths outlined that growth in e-commerce was another driver.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0119 GMT - Westpac could announce a new A$2 billion on-market share buyback in the upcoming reporting season, while there is a chance of a A$1 billion-A$1.5 billion buyback at ANZ, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. MS says its base case is that ANZ will defer buybacks until there is more clarity on whether its proposed acquisition of Suncorp's bank will proceed, but MS's forecast for a pro forma CET1 ratio of around 12.1% at FY 2023 means there is a possibility that ANZ could announce a buyback, analysts say. At the same time, MS forecasts modest half-on-half dividend increases at both ANZ and NAB, but a flat dividend at Westpac. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0115 GMT - Super Retail Group's sales momentum could be challenged over its key holiday trading period, with the Reserve Bank of Australia potentially looking at raising interest rates in both November and December, Citi analyst Adrian Lemme says. He writes in a note that the retailer's sales and margins were both stronger than he had expected over the first 16 weeks of fiscal 2024. Lemme reckons that significantly lower freight costs likely drove the outperformance, and that the full benefit of the savings should be seen in 2H. However, rate hikes are likely to check consumer spending over Black Friday and Christmas, he says. Citi trims target price 2.2% to A$13.20 and remains neutral on the stock, which is up 3.0% at A$12.57. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0114 GMT - Regis Resources has recorded good 1Q results, delivering small beats versus expectations on gold output and costs, RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley says in a note. That follows a strong 4Q in FY 2023, he says. "We had seen potential for Q1 FY24 maintenance and a reversion in grades, which has largely not occurred," says Barkley, who reckons that "a steady Q1 should give investors more confidence in positioning for RRL's expected better value beyond FY24." Shares in Regis have underperformed in recent months after softer-than-expected FY 2024 guidance, he adds. RBC has an outperform rating and a A$2.20 target on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$1.6775. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0100 GMT - Weakness in New Zealand took the shine off a strong 1Q FY 2024 Australia result for grocer Woolworths, says Citi analyst Adrian Lemme in a note. The investment bank says Woolworths Australian Food sales result was slightly below Citi but around market expectations. "We expect volume growth of around 2% in FY 2024 factoring in around 2% population growth, the long-awaited switch from eating out to eating in as well as a more resilient consumer than most expect," Citi says. The investment bank says weakness in NZ profitability prompts it to cut its earnings forecasts by around 3% in FY 2024 and 4.6% in FY 2025. Citi keeps its buy rating but cuts the stock's target by 4.7% to A$40.20. The stock is down 0.5% at A$35.46. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0048 GMT - Corporate Travel Management's A$100 million share buyback implies 3% upside to Citi analyst Samuel Seow's fiscal 2025 EPS forecast. Seow anticipates a 4% reduction in share count, and adjusts for the impact of lost interest revenue. He writes in a note that the Australian company's 1Q update suggests that annual Ebitda is tracking ahead of guidance and remarks on the lack of impact on travel volumes from deteriorating macro conditions. Citi has a buy rating and A$22.55 target price on the stock, which is down 1.2% at A$16.80. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - Magellan's announcement that its CEO David George will be stepping down with immediate effect, could be seen as a positive, says UBS analyst Shreyas Patel in a note. While some industry watchers may see this as presenting further instability, UBS reckons the change is positive in that the execution of a turnaround of the Australian funds manager was misfiring on a number of issues, Patel says. Magellan also announced that its Chairman, Andrew Formica, will become Executive Chairman. "Magellan will search for a new permanent CEO, and while Formica has expressed no current intention of being a permanent CEO, we do not rule out the possibility of this occurring if the search is unsuccessful by June," UBS says. It has a buy call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0033 GMT - Aussie Broadband's confirmation of its annual Ebitda and capital-expenditure guidance is a notable positive against the backdrop of a skittish equities market, Ord Minnett analyst Ian Munro says in a note. The ASX-listed communications provider's addition of more than 40,000 connections in 1Q of fiscal 2024 exceeded Ord Minnett's forecast by about 8,000, and Munro observes that Aussie Broadband now has more than 8% of Australia's national broadband network market. The company didn't raise guidance for A$100 millio-A$110 million of annual Ebitda, but Munro sees this constancy as a plus. Ord Minnett has a buy rating and A$4.15 target price on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$3.87. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2326 GMT -- Megaport's 1Q update shows the Australian communications-services provider making what E&P technology analyst Pallavi Malladi calls a "great start" to the fiscal year. Malladi uses a note to clients to highlight record annual recurring revenue of A$189.8 million and Megaport's achievement in filling 90% of its direct sales roles. E&P has a positive recommendation and A$17.99 target price on the stock, which is down 13% at A$10.00. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2317 GMT -- Brambles's annual sales guidance looks increasingly conservative following its 1Q trading update, RBC Capital Markets analyst Owen Birrell says. He points out that the pallet supplier's 13% rise in 1Q sales revenue means it only needs to lift sales by 4%-6% over the remainder of fiscal 2024 to achieve guidance of 6%-8% annual growth. Accordingly, Birrell sees upside risk to Brambles's sales, earnings and free cashflow guidance. He writes in a note that his key focus through fiscal 2024 will be on the company's pricing momentum, costs and execution on plans to reduce its uncompensated losses. Birrell reiterates his outperform rating. RBC has a A$17.25 target price on the stock, which is down 0.5%, at A$14.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 26, 2023 00:11 ET (04:11 GMT)

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